Applying thresholds to forecast potential biodiversity loss from human development

Hilderbrand, Robert H.; Utz, Ryan M.; Stranko, Scott A.; Raesly, Richard L.

doi:10.1899/09-138.1

Cited by 50 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…To explore this framework further, a formal hypothesis testing analytical approach would be required to identify such thresholds: BRT illustrates potential thresholds but it does not quantitatively locate them. Appropriate modelling approaches could include an examination of cumulative frequency distributions (Hilderbrand et al. , 2010), Bayesian techniques (Qian, Pan & King, 2004) or other change point analyses such as quantile piecewise regression (Brenden, Wang & Su, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying relationships between land‐use gradients and structural and functional indicators of stream ecological integrity

et al. 2011

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1. Modification of natural landscapes and land-use intensification are global phenomena that can result in a range of differing pressures on lotic ecosystems. We analysed national-scale databases to quantify the relationship between three land uses (indigenous vegetation, urbanisation and agriculture) and indicators of stream ecological integrity. Boosted regression tree modelling was used to test the response of 14 indicators belonging to four groups -water quality (at 578 sites), benthic invertebrates (at 2666 sites), fish (at 6858 sites) and ecosystem processes (at 156 sites). Our aims were to characterise the ecological response curves of selected functional and structural metrics in relation to three land uses, examine the environmental moderators of these relationships and quantify the relative utility of metrics as indicators of stream ecological integrity. 2. The strongest indicators of land-use effects were nitrate + nitrite, delta-15 nitrogen value (d 15 N) of primary consumers and the Macroinvertebrate Community Index (a biotic index of organic pollution), while the weakest overall indicators were gross primary productivity, benthic invertebrate richness and fish richness. All indicators declined in response to removal of indigenous vegetation and urbanisation, while variable responses to agricultural intensity were observed for some indicators. 3. The response curves for several indicators suggested distinct thresholds in response to urbanisation and agriculture, specifically at 10% impervious cover and at 0.1 g m )3 nitrogen concentration, respectively. 4. Water quality and ecosystem process indicators were influenced by a combination of temperature, slope and flow variables, whereas for macroinvertebrate indicators, catchment rainfall, segment slope and temperature were significant environmental predictor variables. Downstream variables (e.g. distance to the coast) were significant in explaining residual variation in fish indicators, not surprisingly given the preponderance of diadromous fish species in New Zealand waterways. The inclusion of continuous environmental variables used to develop a stream typology improved model performance more than the inclusion of stream type alone. 5. Our results reaffirm the importance of accounting for underlying spatial variation in the environment when quantifying relationships between land use and the ecological integrity of streams. Of distinctive interest, however, were the contrasting and complementary responses of different indicators of stream integrity to land use, suggesting that multiple indicators are required

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying relationships between land‐use gradients and structural and functional indicators of stream ecological integrity

et al. 2011

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“…The information on taxon-specific change points is essential to detect discrepancies between theoretically derived physico-chemical water quality criteria and species environmental requirements, which serve as the basis to determine the need to adjust quality criteria in water management practices. Thus, we deliver valuable information for the development of efficient management and policy tools (e.g., critical loads or other regulatory criteria), to prevent exceeding change points and to avoid species loss (Brenden et al, 2008;Dodds et al, 2010;Hilderbrand et al, 2010;Payne et al, 2013). The taxon specific change points could also be used to derive indices similar to the saprobic index for all the physico-chemical parameters included in our analysis.…”

Section: Implication For Water Management Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Taxon-specific physico-chemical change points for stream benthic invertebrates

Sundermann

Leps

Leisner

et al. 2015

Ecological Indicators

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“…Many nutrient‐tolerant algal species abruptly and concurrently increased in abundance, while oligotrophic species declined, near the change‐points in nutrient gradients and Dreissena abundance; however, in some cases, evidence of community thresholds was not very strong, and responses to water nutrient concentrations could not be estimated from large‐scale nutrient loading data. Similar change‐points in community composition have been previously observed in several groups of aquatic organisms in response to urbanisation in the surrounding catchments and eutrophication (Baker & King, ; Hilderbrand et al ., ; King et al ., ; Smucker, Detenbeck & Morrison, ; Kovalenko et al ., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Pelagic phytoplankton community change‐points across nutrient gradients and in response to invasive mussels

et al. 2016

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Summary Phytoplankton communities can experience nonlinear responses to changing nutrient concentrations, but the nature of species shifts within phytoplankton is not well understood and few studies have explored responses of pelagic assemblages in large lakes. Using pelagic phytoplankton data from the Great Lakes, we assessed phytoplankton assemblage change‐point responses to nutrients and invasive Dreissena, characterising community responses in a multi‐stressor environment and determine whether species responses to in situ nutrients can be approximated from nutrient loading. We demonstrate assemblage shifts in phytoplankton communities along major stressor gradients, particularly prominent in spring assemblages, providing insight into community thresholds at the lower end of the phosphorus gradient and species‐stressor responses in a multi‐stressor environment. We show that responses to water nutrient concentrations could not be estimated from large‐scale nutrient loading data likely due to lake‐specific retention time and long‐term accumulation of nutrients. These findings highlight the potential for significant accumulation of nitrates in ultra‐oligotrophic systems, nonlinear responses of phytoplankton at nutrient concentrations relevant to current water quality standards and system‐specific (e.g. lake or ecozone) differences in phytoplankton responses likely due to differences in nutrient co‐limitation and effects of dreissenids.

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Applying thresholds to forecast potential biodiversity loss from human development

Abstract: BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Cited by 50 publications

References 32 publications

Quantifying relationships between land‐use gradients and structural and functional indicators of stream ecological integrity

Quantifying relationships between land‐use gradients and structural and functional indicators of stream ecological integrity

Taxon-specific physico-chemical change points for stream benthic invertebrates

Pelagic phytoplankton community change‐points across nutrient gradients and in response to invasive mussels

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