Applying an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average control chart using flow history and assured energy levels to small hydroelectric power plants

Abstract

Small hydroelectric power plants make up 6 GW of installed capacity in Brazil. However, electricity generation at the plants has been below their expected Assured Energy Levels (AELs) recently. This paper analyzes the flow history of 24 plants using exponential moving average control charts in an attempt to verify whether climate change or land use and occupation could have changed the average annual flow available in the basin over time. The graphs showed neither a decreasing or increasing trend in average flows, but rather showed a recurring number of out-of-control points, which proves the sensitivity of assured energy to hydrological variations and the need to evaluate the use of daily average flow rates for calculating and analyzing the energy generated by small power plants.