Applying a stochastic-based approach for developing a quantitative risk assessment method on the fire safety of underground road tunnels

Ntzeremes, Panagiotis; Kirytopoulos, Konstantinos

doi:10.1016/j.tust.2018.08.020

Cited by 38 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…In order to measure the temperature distributions in the ceiling jet, 100 K-type thermocouples of 1 mm diameter were placed at 0.015 m below the ceiling. 4 to ensure that the flames generated in the experiment were turbulent. In the experiment, heat flux data was collected in the stable section and the measurement time was 2 minutes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heat fluxes under the ceiling induced by wall fires with various burner aspect ratios in a channel

Tang

Peng

Zhang

et al. 2021

Proceedings of the Combustion Institute

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fires in reduced scale channels are often used to mimic fire scenarios in tunnels [1,2], corridors [3] and underground spaces [4,5]. The safety and security problems for such fires have raised widespread concern.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat fluxes under the ceiling induced by wall fires with various burner aspect ratios in a channel

Tang

Peng

Zhang

et al. 2021

Proceedings of the Combustion Institute

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“…A risk assessment is a multicriteria process that requires a network approach for process and hazards identification. The followed events are systematically analysed with a Bayesian network, events tree, faults tree and other well-known approaches [2,3]. The gap in most risk assessment approaches is the connection between a systematic risk identification and a precise calculation of fire consequences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk evaluation in road tunnels based on CFD results

Vidmar

2022

THERM SCI

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Approaches to risk assessment in tunnelling and underground spaces were introduced in 2004 as a result of several serious accidents in tunnels such as Mont Blanc and Tauern Tunnel in 1999. The EU has published the minimum safety requirements for tunnels over 500 m on Trans-European Road Network. The risk assessment is mandatory and should cover all components of the system, i.e. infrastructure, operation, users and vehicles. The professional community has started using the QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) approach, where the crucial issue is the consequence analysis of fire scenarios in a tunnel. Fire development is a complex physical phenomenon and its calculation is time consuming; therefore, complex models have rarely been used in QRA approaches. This paper presents the methodology of integrating fast-processing risk assessment methods with time-consuming CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) methods for fire consequence analysis in the process of tunnel safety assessment. The main variables are soot density and temperature, which are analysed in one-minute time steps during the fire. Human behaviour is considered with the evacuation model, which is needed to evaluate fatalities during the fire process. The application of the methodology is presented based on the evaluation of the national tolerable risk for tunnel transport and compared with referenced EU risk criteria. Furthermore, the presented methodology links CFD simulation results and the QRA approach, still representing the collective risk with F-N curves.

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“…In their study, Aderbag et al [34] analyzed cost and schedule risks of a housing construction project using a Monte Carlo simulation-based approach, while Walȩdzik and Mańdziuk [35] proposed an algorithmic approach based in Monte Carlo Tree Search to solve the Risk-Aware Project Scheduling Problem, which is a stochastic extension of the classic Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Project (RCPSP). Also, Ntzeremes and Kirytopoulos [36] proposed a new stochastic method for quantitative fire risk assessment in underground road tunnels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Schedule Delay Risk Analysis in Construction Projects with a Simulation-Based Expert System

Koulinas¹,

Xanthopoulos²,

Tsilipiras³

et al. 2020

Buildings

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In this paper, we present a simulation-based approach for effectively estimating delay risks in project schedules and predicting the possibilities of in-time project completion for various deadlines. The main contribution of this study is the development of a novel approach for duration risk quantification, which uses a newly introduced equation for total risk estimation regarding activities’ durations, and quantifying the manager’s experience as expressed through a questionnaire. In addition, the proposed approach integrates these preferences into a simulation-based framework used for estimating the activities’ durations variation and predicting the actual project duration with more accuracy. Furthermore, using different distributions according to each activity characteristic supports decision making from a wide range of experts, from risk-averse to risk-seeking managers. The proposed method was applied to estimate the total project completion time of a complicated hotel renovation project and the possibility for the project to be delivered within an imposed deadline. The promising results in comparison to the classic PERT method proved that this process can better express the uncertainty and provide project risk managers with better predictions when estimating budget and time-critical overruns under lack of knowledge and historical data.

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Applying a stochastic-based approach for developing a quantitative risk assessment method on the fire safety of underground road tunnels

Cited by 38 publications

References 36 publications

Heat fluxes under the ceiling induced by wall fires with various burner aspect ratios in a channel

Heat fluxes under the ceiling induced by wall fires with various burner aspect ratios in a channel

Risk evaluation in road tunnels based on CFD results

Schedule Delay Risk Analysis in Construction Projects with a Simulation-Based Expert System

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