“…As there is a limited scope for the reduction of risks through regulations aimed at individual ships [21], recent * Corresponding author, nicole.delpeche@gmail.com advances in technology have targeted probabilistic methods for addressing the problem [22]. A promising way is the optimization of major fairways [26]. This approach usually aims at improving the safety of navigation [4,36], in particular near harbours and congested fairways.…”
Pollution caused by shipping accidents or by intentional discharge of harmful materials can be transported by currents to locations far from the source, and therefore poses a potential risk to marine protected areas (MPAs). The risk of current-driven pollution to MPAs in the Gulf of Finland is assessed by analysing the paths from 23 surface drifters crossing a major fairway in the western and central parts of the Gulf of Finland. About 2/3 of the drifters entered into one of the MPAs. The majority of drifters reached the Ekenäs Archipelago near the western coast of Finland. The travel time from the fairway to the MPAs ranged from 1.3 days to 36.1 days, suggesting that different processes may be influencing the surface circulation patterns and that the drifters can travel long distances before reaching a MPA.
“…As there is a limited scope for the reduction of risks through regulations aimed at individual ships [21], recent * Corresponding author, nicole.delpeche@gmail.com advances in technology have targeted probabilistic methods for addressing the problem [22]. A promising way is the optimization of major fairways [26]. This approach usually aims at improving the safety of navigation [4,36], in particular near harbours and congested fairways.…”
Pollution caused by shipping accidents or by intentional discharge of harmful materials can be transported by currents to locations far from the source, and therefore poses a potential risk to marine protected areas (MPAs). The risk of current-driven pollution to MPAs in the Gulf of Finland is assessed by analysing the paths from 23 surface drifters crossing a major fairway in the western and central parts of the Gulf of Finland. About 2/3 of the drifters entered into one of the MPAs. The majority of drifters reached the Ekenäs Archipelago near the western coast of Finland. The travel time from the fairway to the MPAs ranged from 1.3 days to 36.1 days, suggesting that different processes may be influencing the surface circulation patterns and that the drifters can travel long distances before reaching a MPA.
“…This situation has triggered numerous attempts to prevent accidental release of various adverse impacts into the marine environment and to reduce the probability of ship accidents [22,28,29], in particular ship collisions, through the introduction of the Vessel Traffic Separation System [34]. These efforts have been complemented by attempts to track the propagation of oil spills [1] and to preventively minimize and mitigate the consequences of marine accidents [36] by means of optimizing the fairway location [20,25,38]. The largest problem in these efforts has been the largely chaotic and hardly predictable nature of motions in the surface layer of the Baltic Sea and its sub-basins [24,42].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…oil) pollution may be carried over long distances. The largely chaotic nature of the surface currents suggests that probabilistic methods should be used for the quantification of accident-related issues [28,29] and for the optimization of fairways [36]. A meaningful application of any optimization process, including the efforts to mitigate the consequences of ship accidents, presumes specification of the cost function.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…ports and tourist resorts with high commercial value) or partially extend to high seas (e.g. marine protected areas with high environmental value [7,8,36]).…”
Statistical properties of the drift of floating items from the major fairway to the coast and numerically simulated transport of pollution by surface currents to the nearshore are compared for the Gulf of Finland. The comparison is based on tracks of 23 surface drifters that crossed the fairway in the central part of the gulf in 2011-2014 and 17 280 simulated trajectories of passive virtual parcels with starting points in the same section of the fairway and evaluated using velocity fields from the Rossby Centre Ocean (RCO) model in 2000-2004. More than 25% of the drifters that crossed the major fairway in the area north and north-west of Tallinn reached either the southern (Estonian) or northern (Finnish) coast. This probability matches similar estimates for single water parcels that are locked in the surface layer and exclusively carried by simulated currents. The probability of reaching the Estonian and Finnish nearshore by simulated parcels or the coast by drifters is roughly equal. Both surface drifters and virtual parcels generally drifted to the west before they reached the coast or nearshore, except for surface drifters that arrived on the Estonian coast.
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