Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

Svenning, Jens‐Christian; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Marske, Katharine A.; Nogués‐Bravo, David; Normand, Signe

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.06.012

Cited by 255 publications

(260 citation statements)

References 227 publications

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“…Agroecological characterization of wild/cultivated niches helps to determine the environmental requirements of a species, providing information on the adaptability and degree of tolerance to specific ecological conditions (Maxted, Dulloo, & Ford‐Lloyd, 2016; Pliscoff & Fuentes‐Castillo, 2011; Svenning, Fløjgaard, Marske, Nógues‐Bravo, & Normand, 2011; Wang et al., 2009). Ecological descriptors are environmental data from collection sites obtained after the standardization of map and layer construction using geographical information systems (GIS) (Cuervo‐Robayo et al., 2014; Suárez‐Venero, Soto‐Carreño, Garea‐Llanos, & Solano‐Ojeda, 2015; Wang et al., 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic adaptation and ecological descriptors of wild beans from Mexico

Cerda-Hurtado

Máyek-Pérez

Muruaga‐Martínez

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Despite its economic, social, biological, and cultural importance, wild forms of the genus Phaseolus are not well represented in germplasm banks, and they are at great risk due to changes in land use as well as climate change. To improve our understanding of the potential geographical distribution of wild beans (Phaseolus spp.) from Mexico and support in situ and ex situ conservation programs, we determined the climatic adaptation ranges of 29 species and two subspecies of Phaseolus collected throughout Mexico. Based on five biotic and 117 abiotic variables obtained from different databases—WorldClim, Global‐Aridity, and Global‐PET—we performed principal component and cluster analyses. Germplasm was distributed among 12 climatic types from a possible 28. The general climatic ranges were as follows: 8–3,083 m above sea level; 12.07–26.96°C annual mean temperature; 10.33–202.68 mm annual precipitation; 9.33–16.56 W/m2 of net radiation; 11.68–14.23 hr photoperiod; 0.06–1.57 aridity index; and 10–1,728 mm/month of annual potential evapotranspiration. Most descriptive variables (25) clustered species into two groups: One included germplasm from semihot climates, and the other included germplasm from temperate climates. Species clustering showed 45% to 54% coincidence with species previously grouped using molecular data. The species P. filiformis, P. purpusii, and P. maculatus were found at low‐humidity locations; these species could be used to improve our understanding of the extreme aridity adaptation mechanisms used by wild beans to avoid or tolerate climate change as well as to introgress favorable alleles into new cultivars adapted to hot, dry environments.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic adaptation and ecological descriptors of wild beans from Mexico

Cerda-Hurtado

Máyek-Pérez

Muruaga‐Martínez

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Even though this assumption does not hold true for all species, the analysis performed by Araújo and Pearson (2005) over groups of organisms showed that European birds are in equilibrium with climate. Niche conservatism is another important assumption to be considered when SDMs are going to be applied over long time spans (Svenning et al., 2011). While it may be hard to prove such “niche conservation” (Franklin & Miller, 2009; but also see Martinez, Peterson, & Hargrove, 2004), it is possible to use the fossil record to help judge the accuracy of the models (Lawing & Polly, 2011; Metcalf et al., 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Advances within the field of biogeography in the recent past are providing novel insights into how the Earth’s past climate affected the distribution of organisms (Alvarado‐Serrano & Knowles, 2014; Lawing & Polly, 2011; Peterson & Ammann, 2013; Svenning, Fløjgaard, Marske, Nógues‐Bravo, & Normand, 2011; Svenning, Normand, & Kageyama, 2008). Such knowledge is invaluable, as past population dynamics shape the species’ present distributions, giving rise to diversity patterns seen today and affecting the overall genetic composition of population (Metcalf et al., 2014; Pedersen, Sandel, & Svenning, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An integral part of investigating the past dynamics of organisms is the “species distribution modeling” method (hereafter SDM), a mostly correlative approach for computing habitat suitability maps based on the statistical relationships between presence records and environmental predictors (usually climate; Svenning et al., 2011). The projection of habitat suitability maps at different time (either past or future) allows the visualization and quantification of the changes in distributions through time and the testing of evolutionary and biogeographical hypotheses (Graham, Ron, Santos, Schneider, & Moritz, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

Kozma

Lillie

Benito

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold‐adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold‐adapted species may respond to future climate changes.

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“…One promising geospatial technique for use in evolutionary and ecological studies involves ecological niche models (ENMs; Svenning et al 2011). These models indicate potential rather than realized distributions, but the difference between recent and potential future distributions can be a source of valuable information on possible range shifts (Guisan and Thuiller 2005), the risk status of current ranges, and the dispersal rates required to reach suitable new habitats (Jump et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

Wróblewska

Mirski

2017

Reg Environ Change

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Climate change is projected to influence the genetic resources of plant species. Recent research has examined genetic diversity patterns under current climate conditions, with little attention to the future genetic consequences for species. In this study, we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic approaches to project future changes in genetic diversity using plastid and nuclear DNA and reconstructed distribution patterns of three circumboreal plants (Chamaedaphne calyculata, Linnaea borealis ssp. borealis, and Pedicularis sceptrum-carolinum ssp. sceptrumcarolinum) in the last glacial maximum. We found that circumboreal plants could potentially lose their geographic ranges in the future (2070; 35-52% in RCP 4.5 (representative concentration pathways), 37-53% in RCP 6.0, and 56-69% in RCP 8.5), only slightly compensated by a predicted range gain of 18-33% (across the three RCPs). It is expected that future genetic diversity level could remain similar or lower than the present level. On the other hand, the homogeneity of the genetic background-a lack of admixture and domination of one gene pool in most populations of C. calyculata and L. borealis ssp. borealis-was predicted to become more pronounced in the future. Combining the paleoecological niche modeling and genetic data revealed, more precisely, the climate refugia for circumboreal plants in the Alps, central Asia, Beringia, and southern North America and the macrorefugia more restricted to the northern part of Eurasia and North America, reaching the arctic zone.

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Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

Cited by 255 publications

References 227 publications

Climatic adaptation and ecological descriptors of wild beans from Mexico

Climatic adaptation and ecological descriptors of wild beans from Mexico

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

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