Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt

Gawith, Megan; Street, Roger; Westaway, Richard; Steynor, Anna

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.09.005

Cited by 42 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…During Framing climate uncertainty tailoring, regionalised data from climate models are adapted to the needs of specific groups of users (Gawith et al 2009;Swart and Avelar 2011;EUMETNET 2010). User involvement in scenario development has become more important for the credibility, legitimacy and salience of outputs of scenario-driven assessments (Hulme and Dessai 2008).…”

Section: Bottom-up Scenario Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

et al. 2013

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Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incidentdriven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders.

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Section: Bottom-up Scenario Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

et al. 2013

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“…Although much progress has been made by employing scenario building and narrative creation to explore uncertainties, surprises, extreme events, and tipping points, the transition from envisioning to planning, policymaking, and implementation remains poorly understood (Lempert, 2007). Similarly, more widespread uptake of even scientifically highly robust scenarios may be hampered by conflicting understandings of and practical approaches to uncertainty, different scalar needs, and lack of training among users (Gawith et al, 2009). Experiences in scenario building emphasize their usefulness for raising awareness on climate change (Gawith et al, 2009).…”

Section: Chapter 8 Toward a Sustainable And Resilient Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, more widespread uptake of even scientifically highly robust scenarios may be hampered by conflicting understandings of and practical approaches to uncertainty, different scalar needs, and lack of training among users (Gawith et al, 2009). Experiences in scenario building emphasize their usefulness for raising awareness on climate change (Gawith et al, 2009). However, to move from framing public debates to policymaking and implementation, useful scenario building requires procedural stability, permanent yet flexible institutional and governance structures that build trust, and experience to take advantage of new insights for effective and fair risk management (Volkery and Ribeiro, 2009).…”

Section: Chapter 8 Toward a Sustainable And Resilient Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future

O’Brien¹,

Pelling²,

Patwardhan³

et al. 2012

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

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“…Others find it is essential that GCM projections are accompanied by quantitative estimates of the associated probability (Giorgi 2005;Murphy et al 2004;Wigley et al 2003). Adding to this debate, Gawith et al (2009) explain that the experience with UKCP09 has taught that the provision of probabilistic climate scenarios must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support. Another lesson from UKCP was that ongoing dialogue between those providing the scenarios and the communities using them is essential.…”

Section: The (Mis) Match Between the Information Needs And Knowledge mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both lessons were motivated by the experiences from the UKCP02 program, which showed that users frequently chose the Medium-High climate change scenario, because it had the most detailed information and it was seen by some as presenting a 'middle road' or a 'safe' choice. It was also less resource intensive than having to apply four scenarios (Gawith et al 2009). This experience and debate demonstrates that there is still much to be researched in communicating climate uncertainties and that interaction between scientists and policymakers is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with climate change projections.…”

Section: The (Mis) Match Between the Information Needs And Knowledge mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine

Pelt

Swart

2011

Water Resour Manage

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Climate change is likely to have an impact on the discharge of the European river Rhine. To base adaptation strategies, to deal with these changing river discharges, on the best scientific and technical knowledge, it is important to understand potential climate impacts, as well as the capacity of social and natural systems to adapt. Both are characterized by large uncertainties, at different scales, that range from individual to local to regional to international. This review paper addresses three challenges. Dealing with climate change uncertainties for the development of adaptation strategies is the first challenge. We find that communication of uncertainties in support of river basin adaptation planning generally only covers a small part of the spectrum of prevailing uncertainties, e.g. by using only one model or scenario and one approach to deal with the uncertainties. The second challenge identified in this paper is to overcome the current mismatch of supply of scientific knowledge by scientists and the demand by policy makers. Early experiences with 'assess-risk-of-policy' approaches analysis of options, starting from the resilience of development plans, suggests that this approach better responds to policy makers' needs. The third challenge is to adequately capture the transnational character of the Rhine river basin in research and policy. Development and implementation of adaptation options derived from integrated analysis at the full river basin level, rather than within the boundaries of the riparian countries, can offer new opportunities, but will also meet many practical challenges.

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Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt

Cited by 42 publications

References 16 publications

Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future

Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine

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