Application of a midge-based inference model for air temperature reveals evidence of late-20th century warming in sub-alpine lakes in the central Great Basin, United States

A quantitative midge-based reconstruction of mean July air temperature from a high-elevation site in central Colorado, USA, for MIS 6 and 5

“…The diversity and performance statistics associated with the IMW midge-based inference model have been improved relative to the Great Basin inference model. The Great Basin training set had lower taxonomic richness and the MJAT inference model based on the Great Basin training set had a lower r 2 jack (0.55) (Porinchu et al, 2010). In addition, inclusion of the CO lakes increases the climatic gradient captured by the training set lakes.…”

“…The Great Basin midge-based calibration set, initially published by Porinchu et al (2010), incorporated 79 lakes from the Sierra Nevada, California and Uinta Mountains, Utah. The chironomid-based inference model for mean July air temperature (MJAT) developed using the Great Basin calibration set had an r 2 jack = 0.55 and a RMSEP = 0.90°C.…”

“…The chironomid-based inference model for mean July air temperature (MJAT) developed using the Great Basin calibration set had an r 2 jack = 0.55 and a RMSEP = 0.90°C. The Great Basin midge-based inference model (Porinchu et al, 2010) was complemented with the addition of the 20 lakes from CO sampled in this study. The expanded calibration set and associated inference model will hereafter be referred to as the Intermountain West (IMW) chironomid calibration set and MJAT inference model.…”

“…This lengthy record provides an opportunity to develop detailed records of climate and environmental change that span the previous glacial-interglacial transition, an interval characterized by dramatic re-organization of the climate system and biotic communities. In this paper we apply a chironomid-based inference model for mean July air temperature (MJAT) (Porinchu et al, 2010) to a midge stratigraphy from the ZRFS and develop a detailed, quantitative reconstruction of thermal conditions for the region that spans portions of MIS 6 and MIS 5.…”

Assessing recent climatic and human influences on chironomid communities from two moderately impacted lakes in western Ireland

“…Due to their worldwide distribution and abundance, lifecycle characteristics and mobility, as well as their sensitivity to changes in limnological conditions, chironomids have been an effective tool in reconstructing recent temperature change (Porinchu et al, 2007;Guo et al, 2013). However, studies that have employed chironomids to reconstruct recent climate change have tended to focus on regions situated in either high latitudes or high altitudes, as these areas tend to show a strong response to recent warming (Axford et al, 2009;Porinchu et al, 2010). Little research has been carried out in less extreme locations where recent warming trends are more muted, including Ireland (Leira et al, 2006).…”