Annual Green Water Resources and Vegetation Resilience Indicators: Definitions, Mutual Relationships, and Future Climate Projections

Zampieri, Matteo; Grizzetti, Bruna; Meroni, Michele; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Vrieling, Anton; Naumann, Gustavo; Toreti, Andrea

doi:10.3390/rs11222708

Cited by 17 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…This study provides a theoretical framework for addressing quantitative aspects of resilience and sustainability of real crop production systems using models and observed data for different world regions and at the global scale in the context of climate change ( Zampieri et al, 2019 , Zampieri et al, 2020 ). While most adaptation studies often neglect the importance of inter-annual crop production variability ( Challinor et al, 2014 ), our theoretical findings demonstrate how it can be accounted in order to assess resilience.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While most adaptation studies often neglect the importance of inter-annual crop production variability ( Challinor et al, 2014 ), our theoretical findings demonstrate how it can be accounted in order to assess resilience. If the stability of the production time series is measured by the reciprocal of the coefficient of variance of the production time series, we have demonstrated that the resilience indicator proposed is the square of the stability ( Zampieri et al, 2019 ) and we provided a definition that can be applied to non-stationary time series characterizing agricultural production ( Zampieri et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, using Eqs. (1) , (2) , we obtain the indicator for annual crop production resilience ( R c , Zampieri et al, 2019 ):

as we wanted to demonstrate. In case a system is subject to frequent total production losses (e.g.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating resilience of crop production systems: From theory to practice

Zampieri

Weissteiner

Grizzetti

et al. 2020

Science of The Total Environment

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Agricultural production systems are sensitive to weather and climate anomalies and extremes as well as to other environmental and socio-economic adverse events. An adequate evaluation of the resilience of such systems helps to assess food security and the capacity of society to cope with the effects of global warming and the associated increase of climate extremes. Here, we propose and apply a simple indicator of resilience of annual crop production that can be estimated from crop production time series. First, we address the problem of quantifying resilience in a simplified theoretical framework, focusing on annual crops. This results in the proposal of an indicator, measured by the reciprocal of the squared coefficient of variance, which is proportional to the return period of the largest shocks that the crop production system can absorb, and which is consistent with the original ecological definition of resilience. Subsequently, we show the sensitivity of the crop resilience indicator to the level of management of the crop production system, to the frequency of extreme events as well as to simplified socio-economic impacts of the production losses. Finally, we demonstrate the practical applicability of the indicator using historical production data at national and sub-national levels for France. The results show that the value of the resilience indicator steeply increases with crop diversity until six crops are considered, and then levels off. The effect of diversity on production resilience is highest when crops are more diverse (i.e. as reflected in less well correlated production time series). In the case of France, the indicator reaches about 60% of the value that would be expected if all crop production time-series were uncorrelated.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating resilience of crop production systems: From theory to practice

Zampieri

Weissteiner

Grizzetti

et al. 2020

Science of The Total Environment

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“…Climatic extremes such as severe drought, heatwaves and flooding result in yield penalties for major crops like wheat (Mäkinen et al 2018) and these events will occur at an increasing pace in the future (Scoccimarro et al 2015;Zampieri et al 2019). Increases in weather variability may be a serious threat to the expansion of novel crops that might in general benefit from warming (Peltonen-Sainio et al 2011).…”

Section: Communicated By Luis Lassalettamentioning

confidence: 99%

Large zonal and temporal shifts in crops and cultivars coincide with warmer growing seasons in Finland

Peltonen‐Sainio

Jauhiainen

2020

Reg Environ Change

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In Finland, crop choices are limited, and cultivation is only possible in the regions where production risks and uncertainties are manageable. Climate change progresses rapidly at high latitudes and the thermal growing season is projected to become substantially longer in the future. This study aimed to monitor the regional shifts in major, secondary, minor and novel crops during 1996–2016 in Finland. We used long-term data from the Finnish Food Agency and evaluated changes in time to reach maturity of cultivars of model crops by using official variety trial data. Substantial changes were recorded in cultivation areas of crops, including expansion into new regions. Some of the traditional major crops such as oats (− 20%, i.e. − 75,700 ha from 1996 to 2016), barley (− 19%, − 105,700 ha) and potatoes (− 28%, − 4000 ha) have paved the way for emergent crops like faba beans (increase in area from 58 to 14,800 ha), peas (from 5700 to 13,400 ha), caraway (from 1900 to 18,400 ha) and spring oilseed rape (from 700 to 27,800 ha). Expansion per se was primarily enabled by climate warming, but success requires well-adapted cultivars, existing or emerging markets and industries or exports as well as motivating prices, policy support and valued ecosystem services.

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“…The crop production resilience indicator is defined as the reciprocal of the squared coefficient of variance, which is a special case of the generalized entropy index (Shorrocks 1980). The crop production resilience indicator applied to crop production time series is directly/inversely proportional to the return period/frequency of extreme events causing severe production losses (Zampieri et al 2019d) and has been used to estimate also general vegetation resilience and the reliability of the related ecosystem services (Zampieri et al 2019c). Compared with other indicators of stability, a concept close to resilience, such as the reciprocal of the coefficient of variance (Kahiluoto et al 2019a;Renard and Tilman 2019), the crop production resilience indicator is consistent with the original ecological definition of resilience (Holling 1973(Holling , 1996.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

et al. 2020

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Wheat is the main staple crop and an important commodity in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. These are among the few areas in the world where the climate is suitable for growing durum wheat but also are among the most rapidly warming ones, according to the available scenarios of climate projections. How much food security and market stability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, both depending on wheat production and its interannual variability, are going to be compromised by global warming is an overarching question. To contribute in addressing it, we use a recently established indicator to quantify crop production climate resilience. We present a methodological framework allowing to compute the annual production resilience indicator from nonstationary time series. We apply this approach on the wheat production of the 10 most important producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Our findings shows that if no adaptation will take place, wheat production reliability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East will be threatened by climate change already at 1.5°C global warming. Average climaterelated wheat production losses will exceed the worst past event even if the 2°C mitigation target is met. These results call for urgent action on adaptation to climate change and support further efforts for mitigation, fully consistently with the Paris Agreement recommendations.

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Annual Green Water Resources and Vegetation Resilience Indicators: Definitions, Mutual Relationships, and Future Climate Projections

Cited by 17 publications

References 56 publications

Estimating resilience of crop production systems: From theory to practice

Estimating resilience of crop production systems: From theory to practice

Large zonal and temporal shifts in crops and cultivars coincide with warmer growing seasons in Finland

Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

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