Annual and seasonal mean tropical and subtropical precipitation bias in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Li, Jui‐Lin F.; Xu, Kuan‐Man; Richardson, Mark; Lee, Wei‐Liang; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Yu, Jia‐Yuh; Wang, Yihui; Fetzer, Eric J.; Wang, Li Chiao; Stephens, Graeme L.; Liang, Hsin-Chien

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc7dd

Cited by 23 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 40 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Overall, our CESM1 results are consistent with our suggested mechanism of a radiation‐driven dynamical response to falling ice radiative effects, which counteract several known biases across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. They are too‐high SST biases, TOA and surface radiation biases (Li et al., 2013, 2015; Li, Lee, et al., 2014; Li, Xu, Jiang, et al., 2020; Li, Xu, Richardson, et al., 2020), and biases in trade‐wind large‐scale environments discussed in the present study. The results suggest a potential cause of overestimated middle‐ and high‐level clouds reported in CMIP5 models (e.g., Nam et al., 2012) via changes in trade‐wind large‐scale environments resulting from hydrometeors‐radiation‐circulation interactions.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 48%

“…The improvements have been made in its newer version CESM2‐CAM6 participating in CMIP6, which includes prognostic FIREs and other important upgrades in cloud‐related physical parameterizations compared to CESM1‐CAM5. For example, CESM2‐CAM6 has improved tropical hydrometeor‐radiation interactions (Li, Xu, Jiang, et al., 2020) and precipitation simulation (Li, Xu, Richardson, et al., 2020; Woelfle et al., 2019).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The representations of the coupling among stratus, stratocumulus clouds and trade‐wind shallow cumulus, and their effects on radiation remain a great challenge due to the complexity of these marine‐low clouds and their interactions with the large‐scale environments in fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs) (Andrews et al., 2012; Bony et al., 2006; Ma et al., 1996; Randall et al., 2007; Stan et al., 2010; Yu & Mechoso, 1999). It has been reported that current coupled GCMs show biases in large‐scale environments, for example, too‐weak subsidence, too‐high SSTs and too‐weak surface wind stress and trade‐winds over the Pacific trade‐wind regions in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) and some Phase 6 (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) models (Li, Lee, et al., 2014; Lee et al., 2013, 2015; Li, Xu, Jiang, et al., 2020; Li, Xu, Richardson, et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2014). Most of CMIP models tend to simulate too‐few low‐level clouds but with too‐frequent mid‐ and high‐level clouds (Nam et al., 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of studies has revealed the potential importance of falling ice radiative effects (FIREs) over tropical and subtropical oceans (Gettelman & Morrison, 2015; Li et al., 2012; Li, Lee, et al., 2014; Li, Xu, Jiang, et al., 2020; Li, Xu, Richardson, et al., 2020; Michibata et al., 2019; Waliser et al., 2009, 2011). Li et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Changes of South‐Central Pacific Large‐Scale Environment Associated With Hydrometeors‐Radiation‐Circulation Interactions in a Coupled GCM

Lee

Jiang

et al. 2021

JGR Atmospheres

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A common deficiency in coupled atmosphere‐ocean models is the lack of stratocumulus clouds near the west coasts of continents and shallow cumulus clouds over the trade wind regions. In this study, we examine changes of large‐scale trade wind environment associated with hydrometeors‐radiation‐circulation interactions, focusing over the south‐central Pacific, by carrying out experiments with falling ice (snow) radiative effects (FIREs) on or off using the CESM1‐CAM5 coupled model. Compared to observations/reanalysis data and an experiment with FIREs on (SON), an experiment with FIREs off (NOS) tends to have too‐high (0.3–0.9 K) sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern half of the Pacific, and weaker surface wind stress over the northeast side but stronger stress over the southwest side of the study domain. The difference between NOS and SON shows lower‐tropospheric wind fields with a cyclonic‐like wind pattern, which is similar to surface wind stress, accompanied with weaker subsidence over the northeast side. The cyclonic‐like wind pattern causes stronger moisture convergence, accompanied with horizontal warm and moist advections, and stronger effective ascending motion over the northeast side of the study domain, building large‐scale environmental conditions to facilitate middle‐ and high‐clouds instead of shallow cumulus clouds in nature. This large‐scale environment in conjunction with the higher SSTs may be also responsible for the lack of the stratocumulus clouds near the coast of America. Remaining biases in SON such as the double intertropical convergence zone and parameterization deficiencies may also prevent a more realistic simulation of trade wind clouds and their associated large‐scale environments.

show abstract

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 48%

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Changes of South‐Central Pacific Large‐Scale Environment Associated With Hydrometeors‐Radiation‐Circulation Interactions in a Coupled GCM

Lee

Jiang

et al. 2021

JGR Atmospheres

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Two studies [24,25] reported that GCMs' capacity to capture local or regional climate patterns, which are relevant to ensure sound management decisions and mitigation strategies, is weak, especially for precipitation events [26]. Despite the use of a regional model in this study, we decided to incorporate bias correction to increase the validity of the presented results.…”

Section: Runoffmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Impact of Climate Change Analysis on the Management of Water Resources under Stressed Quantity and Quality Scenarios

Tercini

Perez

Schardong

et al. 2021

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Assuring access to high-quality water for its multiple uses is increasingly difficult and relevant, as climate changes are gradually altering the hydrologic cycle and impacting traditional and well-established techniques of water resource management. This manuscript proposes a methodology to assess the impact of climatic variability in pre-established management rules, using spatially interpolated rain gauged data for two future emission scenarios. With them, water allocation and water quality parameters are simulated for the Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiaí watersheds (PCJ watersheds) in São Paulo, Brazil, employing comparisons among scenarios of historical and climate modified hydrological series. Five selected water quality indicators are used to confirm that the introduction of climate variation signals worsens water quality parameters, along with a decrease in the capability to meet water demand. This finding suggests the importance of including climate change impact in similar studies in management plans. The results indicate higher stress levels on the watershed when changes in the hydrological regime are introduced by the future conditions modeled and driven by the regional climate model (RCM). Water availability decreases and water quality deteriorates, indicating that stakeholders must take action to progressively implement stricter control measures to achieve the goals established by the watershed master plan regarding the limits or classification set by the body governing the watershed in question. On average, there was an increase of about four times the amount of river stretches (in kilometres), from 29.6 km to 161.9 km outside the limits of the established framework. The average was taken for all parameters as presented in the discussion.

show abstract

Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model‐simulated extreme precipitation over Indonesia

Kurniadi

Weller

Kim

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The ability of 42 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), consisting of 20 low resolution (LR) and 22 medium resolution (MR), are evaluated for their performance in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Compared to Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), the model climatologies and interannual variability are investigated individually and as multimodel ensemble means (MME-mean) at monthly and seasonal time scales for the historical simulation over the period 1988-2014. Overall, results show that both LR and MR CMIP6 model skills in simulating mean and extreme precipitation indices vary across specific Indonesian regions and seasons. The individual and MME-mean tend to overestimate the observed climatology, being largest over drier regions, yet MR models perform better compared to the LR regarding the mean bias presumably due to increased resolution. CMIP6 models tend to simulate extreme precipitation better in the dry seasons compared to the wet season. The MME-means of the LR and MR groups mostly outperform the individual models of each group in simulating wet extremes (R95p and Rx5d) but not for the dry extremes (CDD). Among the 42 CMIP6 models, three models consistently perform poorly in simulating Rx5d and R95p, namely FGOALS-g3, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and one model in consecutive dry day (CDD) simulation, MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM, and caution is warranted. Given the knowledge of such biases, the LR and MR CMIP6 climate models can be suitably applied to assist policy makers in their decision on climate change adaptation and mitigation action.

show abstract

Annual and seasonal mean tropical and subtropical precipitation bias in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Cited by 23 publications

References 40 publications

Changes of South‐Central Pacific Large‐Scale Environment Associated With Hydrometeors‐Radiation‐Circulation Interactions in a Coupled GCM

Changes of South‐Central Pacific Large‐Scale Environment Associated With Hydrometeors‐Radiation‐Circulation Interactions in a Coupled GCM

Potential Impact of Climate Change Analysis on the Management of Water Resources under Stressed Quantity and Quality Scenarios

Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model‐simulated extreme precipitation over Indonesia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About