Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon

Abstract

In this paper, the variations in hydropower generation are addressed considering the seasonality and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) episodes. The dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structure of the Colombian electricity market were analyzed. Moreover, its dynamic behavior was analyzed by using Dynamic Systems tools aimed at providing deep insight into the system. The MATLAB/Simulink model was used to evaluate the Colombian electricity market. Since we combine System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems, this methodology provides a novel insight and a deeper analysis compared with System Dynamics models and can be easily implemented by policymakers to suggest improvements in regulation or market structures. We also provide a detailed description of the Colombian electricity market dynamics under a broad range of demand growth rate scenarios inspired by the bifurcation and control theory of Dynamic Systems.

Non-Smooth Dynamics in Energy Market Models: A Complex Approximation From System Dynamics and Dynamical Systems Approach

“…1 is shown in Fig. 2, and further explanation of all variables can be found in [12], [29], [30], [45].…”

“…The red and blue connectors indicate the information fluxes of the demand and supply sides, respectively. All variables are well explained in [12], [29], [30], [45].…”

“…The strategies and methodologies for modeling electricity markets are comprehensively described in several reviews [6]- [9]. Powermarket dynamics have been mainly described by econometric, probabilistic and agent-based models, and by techniques such as neural networks, genetic algorithms, stochastic optimization methods, and control theory [9]- [12].…”

“…It is worth highlighting that the SD and DS approaches are complementary tools that further our understanding of qualitative system behaviors. A combined SD and DS methodology exploits the modern theory of nonlinear DS to describe complex behaviors [12], [17], [29], [30], [35]. However, distinguishing between the qualitative and quantitative properties of complex systems has eluded SD researchers for several years.…”

“…In this work, the non-smooth properties of a general electricity market are mathematically uncovered and described. As previously stated, other researchers have not fully exploited the DS methodologies in SD models from an analytical point of view [12], [17], [29], [30]. As a result, the non-smooth properties of energy markets have been barely FIGURE 1.…”