ResumenEn el siguiente documento se propone un enfoque de análisis cualitativo y con este una síntesis metodológica para definir y comprender el comportamiento complejo de un mercado de electricidad nacional. Para tal fin, se presenta una propuesta metodológica que rescata el conjunto de ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias, para un modelo basado en dinámica de sistemas, cuyo propósito es reunir las principales características de un mercado de electricidad nacional fundamentado en la estrategia económica de oferta y demanda. Como se mostrará a lo largo del artículo, el propósito del mismo se fundamenta en el aprovechamiento y la manera en que para mercados de electricidad es posible utilizar la dinámica de sistemas y los sistemas dinámicos con un solo propósito, la formulación de elementos de política 1 Tecnológico de Antioquia, johnny.valencia@tdea.edu.co, ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000

and Colciencias (the Colombian research council) for the financial support under project 811-2018 Posdoctorados Nacionales. Gerard Olivar acknowledges Colciencias under project Modelado y simulación del metabolismo urbano de la ciudad de Bogotá D.C., code 111974558276; and DIMA, Universidad Nacional de Colombia under project Modelamiento avanzado de mercados de energía eléctrica para toma de decisiones de inversión y establecimiento de políticas, Hermes code 35467.

This research article presents the integration of participatory modeling and system dynamics as a novel methodology for the consolidation of social dynamic models for the subsequent evaluation and prioritization of green projects in Colombian post-conflict communities. First, through participatory work carried out with a community, the citizen factors were identified, evaluated, and systematized in relation to the problems and needs of the region. Second, based on the results obtained, a simulation model based on system dynamics—which facilitates decision-making with regard to the evaluation of green projects—was calibrated. The proposed methodology lead to the conclusion that, with the participation of the community, and with a model based on the dynamics of the variables—such as supply and demand—for natural water and land resources, it is possible to warn decision-makers about variables that can lead to the maximization of investments, and thus to prioritize and select the most appropriate environmental, social, or economic initiatives that meet the needs or expectations of the involved community. In the future, the model could be used to facilitate the management, administration, and control of water and land resources by creating alerts called reserve margins.

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The biofuels industry has grown and has positioned itself in Colombia for national purposes, these come from biomass sources such as agricultural crops. Bioethanol is the most used in Colombia and is obtained from sugarcane. One of the main concerns of the sector and society, is the high water consumption associated with agricultural crops (9,000 m3 / ha-year), there are currently 232,000 hectares of sugarcane for the production of sugar and bioethanol. Given the aforementioned, the need arises to carry out a planning of industrial increase of the sector taking into account as a main base the demand and availability of water resources for different activities in the Cauca river basin and the demand for sugarcane crops. In this document it is presented a mathematical model and the evaluation of different scenarios of the estimation of the trend of water consumption in the bioethanol production process in Colombia and in this way to establish scenarios of high risk of water shortage both for the population, interested parties and cane cultivation.

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Citizen participation has always been of vital importance in decision-making processes and, likewise, joint work in the formulation and execution of projects that respond to territorial needs. This in order to ensure the best impact of public or private investment, optimizing the result and community articulation. For this reason, this investigation proposes a methodology of evaluation and prioritization of projects based on an approach integrated between the modelling in dynamics systems (SDM) and the Analytical process network (ANP), in which the citizen factors are used as qualitative and quantitative variables inside the posed balance sheet model. This is how the model developed by the Stella Architect software, it offers to the decision makers approximate information about the reality of the community, especially those who were affected by the Colombian conflict and where the expectations of a comprehensive repair could disrupt the socioeconomic system and reveal more pressing interests than those of the central government. The methodology is described by the information gotten through the participatory workshops done in the California county that belongs to the Magdalena region, this is a very affected region by the conflict in Colombia. The investigation results confirm the useful of, first of all, the use of the modelling as an information-generating tool by allowing the simulation of relevant variables in the evaluation and prioritization of projects at different moments of time and, in second place, use the knowledge of the experts that expose the ANP method for establishing the importance of each variable compared with other variables and, likewise of each project compared to the rest of the alternatives in each of the different instants of time in which the evaluation is carried out, given that the results could change in any time, the official ranking is showed after an optimization process with partial results.