Analysis on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy and China Dream target

Li, Jifeng; Ma, Zhong; Zhang, Yaxiong; Wen, Zhichao

doi:10.1016/j.accre.2018.01.001

Cited by 44 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Although predictions for China's energy use vary between different research institutes, there is a consensus that China's energy use will continue rising until 2030 and then peak between 2030 and 2050. However, the fuel mix will continue being optimized until 2050 because of the low-carbon development trend (29)(30)(31)(32).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A less strict family planning policy did not trigger an increase in the fertility rate, but the adjustment of the family planning policy can boost labor resources and delay the process of population aging (40). In this context, many research institutes have predicted that China's population will continue to grow until at least 2030 (29,30,41). Thereby, economic growth and population size will remain, driving the increase in CO 2 emission in the long term.…”

Section: Discussion and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO₂emissions

Zheng

Lü

Yuan

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

201

104

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CO 2 emissions are of global concern because of climate change. China has become the largest CO 2 emitter in the world and presently accounts for 30% of global emissions. Here, we analyze the major drivers of energy-related CO 2 emissions in China from 1978 when the reform and opening-up policy was launched. We find that 1) there has been a 6-fold increase in energy-related CO 2 emissions, which was driven primarily (176%) by economic growth followed by population growth (16%), while the effects of energy intensity (−79%) and carbon intensity (−13%) slowed the growth of carbon emissions over most of this period; 2) energy-related CO 2 emissions are positively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population growth rate, carbon intensity, and energy intensity; and 3) a portfolio of command-and-control policies affecting the drivers has altered the total emission trend. However, given the major role of China in global climate change mitigation, significant future reductions in China's CO 2 emissions will require transformation toward low-carbon energy systems.www.pnas.org/cgi/

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussion and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO₂emissions

Zheng

Lü

Yuan

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

201

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On the basis of the fitting equation, three possible scenarios of factor changes were proposed to forecast the future CO 2 emissions and carbon intensities. Apart from the preceding studies, some other similar works have been published 13–15 . These works suppose that the relationships between CO 2 emissions (or carbon intensity) on the one hand, and their influence factors on the other hand, do not change in the fitting and forecasting periods.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

When will China fulfill its carbon‐related intended nationally determined contributions? An in‐depth environmental Kuznets curve analysis

et al. 2020

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Considering the enormous amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions generated in China, the country's fulfillment of its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) is essential in achieving the goal of mitigating global climate change delineated in the Paris Agreement. In order to forecast the future development of China's carbon-related INDC indicators, this research uses a segmented quadratic equation to fit the relationship between economic level and CO 2 emissions and a hybrid trend extrapolation model to forecast the emission-related indicators. The empirical analysis shows that China's CO 2 emission peak appeared in 2018 with an emission amount of 9.36 billion tons. The future CO 2 emissions after 2018 will present a fluctuating and slowly decreasing trend. As to the carbon intensity, China will meet the INDC target (lower by 60-65% from the 2005 level) in 2022-2023. At that time, China's CO 2 emissions will be 8.43-7.96 billion tons and GDP will reach 109.71-125.39 trillion yuan. Furthermore, the empirical analysis also shows that even if China's carbon intensity target is successfully realized, it will still have considerable potential for further reduction.

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“…This study contributes to the existing body of energy modeling literature focused on China in several different ways. From a methodological perspective, we use a bottom-up end-use model built using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software that is able to differentiate nuances at the level of end-uses and individual technologies beyond macroeconomic modeling approaches in existing Chinese modeling studies [11][12][13][14][15]. Our study further contributes to the bottom-up energy modeling field by evaluating newer, multi-sectoral strategies beyond cost-effective efficiency improvements and fuel switching strategies typically considered in the few existing bottom-up China modeling studies [16], and with longer time frame out to 2050 [17][18][19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts

et al. 2019

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• China LEAP model used to assess multi-sector decarbonization strategies to 2050. • Energy, CO 2 impacts of accelerated electrification and renewables are assessed. • 2025 CO 2 peak feasible under 4 strategies, peak levels vary from 10.2 to 10.7 GtCO 2. • Faster electrification's CO 2 impact depend on pace of power sector decarbonization. • Demand-side renewable has similar CO 2 reduction impact as power decarbonization.

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Analysis on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy and China Dream target

Cited by 44 publications

References 6 publications

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO₂emissions

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO₂emissions

When will China fulfill its carbon‐related intended nationally determined contributions? An in‐depth environmental Kuznets curve analysis

Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts

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Analysis on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy and China Dream target

Cited by 44 publications

References 6 publications

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO2emissions

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO2emissions

When will China fulfill its carbon‐related intended nationally determined contributions? An in‐depth environmental Kuznets curve analysis

Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts

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Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO₂emissions

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO₂emissions