This paper addresses robust link adaptation for a precoded downlink multiple input single output (MISO) system, for guaranteeing ultra-reliable (99.999%) transmissions to mobile users served by a small cell network (e.g. slowly moving machines in a factory). Effects of inaccurate channel state information (CSI) caused by user mobility and varying precoders in neighboring cells are mitigated. Both of these impairments translate to changes of received signal-to-noise plus interference ratios (SINRs), leading to CSI mispredictions and potentially erroneous transmissions. Knowing the statistics of the propagation channels and the precoder variation, backoff values can be selected to guarantee robust link adaptation. Combining this with information on the current channel state, transmissions can be adapted to have a desired reliability. Theoretical analysis accompanied by simulation results show that the proposed approach is suitable for attaining 5G ultra-reliability targets in realistic settings.