Analysis of the Inhomogeneous Effect of Different Meteorological Trends on Drought: An Example from Continental Croatia

Abstract

The majority of central Europe has a transitional climate type as a result of interactions between maritime and continental climates. This study focuses on the appearance and severity of drought in continental Croatia, which is part of the transitional climate area. It is situated between 15 • E and 19 • E. The altitude declines from west (167 m a.s.l) to east (88 m a.s.l.). The time period analysed is 1981-2018. Air temperature and precipitation data series from 13 meteorological stations were analysed. The analysis was done on an annual basis to define the spatio-temporal variability in air temperature and precipitation and their impact on drought episodes using the standardised evapotranspiration precipitation index. Different statistical methods (e.g., the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and agglomerative hierarchical clustering) were used to examine the trend homogeneity of the analysed region. The analysis indicated inhomogeneity across the study area in terms of what significantly impacted the occurrence and severity of droughts. Drought occurrence is influenced more strongly by increasing trends in air temperature as compared with increasing or decreasing precipitation trends. The probability of severe drought occurrence was estimated using a copula function, and the results demonstrated that areas with higher precipitation could be more exposed to drought. Furthermore, the results demonstrated the impacts of specific regional characteristics on drought occurrence, severity, and duration, which indicates that small-scale research on droughts is more reliable.

Statistical analysis of annual and seasonal temperature regime change in Rasina River basin, Serbia

“…Mean annual air temperature in Croatia in the period 1981-2018 has a clear upward trend. Higher mean annual air temperature (0.7-1.5 °C higher) occurs between 1998 and 2006 (Tadić et al, 2019).…”

Spatiotemporal variability of air temperatures in Central Serbia from 1949 to 2018

“…Numerous papers are dealing with air temperature changes across the regions of Southeast Europe: in Montenegro (Luković et al, 2013;Burić et al, 2014Burić et al, , 2015Burić et al, , 2018Burić et al, , 2019, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Trbić et al, 2017;Popov et al, 2017Popov et al, , 2018aPopov et al, , 2018bPopov et al, , 2019, Croatia (Tadić et al, 2019;Radilović et al, 2020), and Slovenia (Milošević et al, 2013(Milošević et al, , 2017Tošić et al, 2016).…”