Analysis of the Dynamics of SI-SI-SEIR Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Epidemic Model with Re-infection

The history of coronavirus can be traced to the 1960s when B184 and 229E coronaviruses were discovered in the nasal washing of individuals with the common cold. There was no worry about such viruses until 2003 when the first major outbreak of SARS was discovered in southern China. The recent outbreak was in 2019 when a major outbreak of COVID-19 strain started in China. The World Health Organisation proclaimed COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020. Ever since this pandemic, several attempts to intervene in the spread has been tried, yet the pandemic is not dying. This persistence in the pandemic might be due to the presence of asymptomatic individuals. This unending pandemic has hit the Kenya economy badly. In this study, we mathematically investigate the effect of governmental and non-governmental intervention on the spread of COVID-19 in Kenya. To capture the effect of intervention effectively, the model considers the presence of asymptomatically infected individuals in the Kenya. The basic reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation matrix and the local stability of the equilibrium points are established. The effects of intervention on the spread of COVID-19 are simulated and illustrated as graphs. The results indicate that intervention in form awareness and public sensitisation reduces the Exposed class, Infected Classes and COVID-19-related death.

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“…The works of [15,16] and [17] show a procedure for finding the equilibrium points. By setting each of equations (2.1 -2.7) to zero ( [18]),…”

Section: Equilibrium Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reproduction number R0 is the number of secondary infections that a single infected individual can cause when introduced to a susceptible population. Following the works of [15,19,20], the the next generation matrix is used to find the reproduction number. We start by writing…”

Section: Reproduction Numbermentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya

Mwangi

Mutuku

2023

JAMCS

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“…The more reliable diagnosing test that is been use is real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) while CT scans may also be helpful to diagnose COVID-19. [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] The role played by mathematics in redefining many biological and medical concepts has made mathematics an icon to reckon with in decision making in many biological researches. 13,14 In view of this, mathematical models for the study of COVID-19 have been proposed and studied under different circumstances.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical analysis of the dynamics of COVID‐19 in Africa under the influence of asymptomatic cases and re‐infection

Oke

Bada

Rasaq

et al. 2021

Math Methods in App Sciences

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and only less than 5% of the 15 million cases were recorded in Africa. A major call for concern was the significant rise from 2% in May 2020 to 4.67% by the end of July 15, 2020. This drastic increase calls for quick intervention in the transmission and control strategy of COVID-19 in Africa. A mathematical model to theoretically investigate the consequence of ignoring asymptomatic cases on COVID-19 spread in Africa is proposed in this study. A qualitative analysis of the model is carried out with and without re-infection, and the reproduction number is obtained under re-infection. The results indicate that increasing case detection to detect asymptomatically infected individuals will be very effective in containing and reducing the burden of COVID-19 in Africa. In addition, the fact that it has not been confirmed whether a recovered individual can be re-infected or not, then enforcing a living condition where recovered individuals are not allowed to mix with the susceptible or exposed individuals will help in containing the spread of COVID-19.

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“…Ever since the virus into one human from an unknown origin, it has since spread from human to human. The spread happens by contaminated droplets when infected people sneeze, or cough [2,3]. Symptoms of infection include high fever, breath shortness, cough, and running nose.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mathematical modelling provides scientists with a very economical approach to study the trend of an epidemic. The disease and its trend can be studied before it hits the population and vital recommendations can be made even before the disease hits the population [12,3,13,14,15,16,17]. In the case of COVID-19, scientists were quick to formulate mathematical models for the transmission of the disease [18,19,20,21,22,23].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Impact of TB or COVID-19 Infections on a Population Suffering from TB/COVID-19 Coinfection

Githinji,

Chepkwony

2024

Asian J. Prob. Stat.

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The discovery that the spread of tuberculosis reduced significantly in the last two years has been associated with the preventive measures placed to combat the spread of COVID-19. This shows a string correlation between the spread of COVID-19 and tuberculosis in any population. It is worth noting that tuberculosis and COVID-19 are among the leading most deadly diseases in the world today. The correlation in their spread also leaves us to believe that the spread of one can enhance the spread of the other. Hence, we propose the situation where a population is co-infected with the two diseases. The mathematical model is formulated using conservative laws and the resulting model analysed. The stability of the co-infection is analysed and the non-negativity conditions for the solution is established. It is found that tuberculosis sub-population reaches the highest capacity when the recruitment into the COVID-19 subpopulation is the lowest while the COVID-19 sub-population is attained when the rate of recruitment into the COVID-19 subpopulation is the highest.

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Analysis of the Dynamics of SI-SI-SEIR Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Epidemic Model with Re-infection

Cited by 4 publications

References 22 publications

Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya

Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya

Mathematical analysis of the dynamics of COVID‐19 in Africa under the influence of asymptomatic cases and re‐infection

Investigating the Impact of TB or COVID-19 Infections on a Population Suffering from TB/COVID-19 Coinfection

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