Mathematical analysis of the dynamics of COVID‐19 in Africa under the influence of asymptomatic cases and re‐infection

Oke, Abayomi Samuel; Bada, Oluwafemi Isaac; Rasaq, Ganiyu; Adodo, Victoria

doi:10.1002/mma.7769

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Several reasons have been suggested for the low prevalence of SARS CoV-2 infection in Africa, one of which is the low testing capacity due to the fragile health system and exiguous molecular laboratories [2][3][4][5]. Although studies have shown that over 80% of persons infected with the virus were asymptomatic [6][7][8][9][10], most of the tests conducted in African countries were among people with symptomatic infections [4,7,[11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Recruitment Of Participants Sample Collection and Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Seroprevalence of SARS-COV-2 Antibody before Covid-19 Vaccination in Nigerian Communities

Do¹,

Aminu²,

Olusola³

et al. 2022

Int Arch Public Health Community Med

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: This community-based study was conducted to determine the proportion of individuals in the population that had been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and developed antibodies before the second wave and introduction of COVID-19 vaccines in Nigeria. Methods:Between December 2020 and March 2021, 2,244 markets sellers and shoppers aged ≤ 70 years across six states [two northern (Kano and Kaduna), two eastern (Ebonyi and Imo), and two western (Oyo and Lagos)] regions were enrolled in the study. Demographic information was collected from the participants as well as whole blood which was separated into serum and tested for SARS-CoV-2 total antibodies with a validated ELISA kit (WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Ab ELISA) approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.Results: Overall, 1, 453 participants tested positive for the antibodies giving a seroprevalence of 66.8%. The antibodies were significantly (P = 0.0001) detected across the six states with the highest rate in Kano (83%) and the lowest rate in Lagos (39%). Participants who were ≤ 19 years and those between 60 and 69 years had the highest (68.42% (104/152) and lowest (56.20%: 68/121) seroprevalence rates respectively. In terms of religion, higher antibody levels were significantly (χ2 =17.4664, P = 0.0001) detected among Christians (75%: 576/766) compared to Muslims (65%: 395/609). There were no significant relationships between antibody positivity rates and gender, education, economic as well as marital status (p > 0.05). Conclusion:Six out of every ten participants in this study had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 before the second wave and introduction of COVID-19 vaccines. Increased activities and mobility may be responsible for high levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among young persons while differences in religious practices may account for the low prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among Muslims compared to Christians.

show abstract

Section: Recruitment Of Participants Sample Collection and Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Seroprevalence of SARS-COV-2 Antibody before Covid-19 Vaccination in Nigerian Communities

Do¹,

Aminu²,

Olusola³

et al. 2022

Int Arch Public Health Community Med

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The study was conducted for the entire African continent and does not specify how it affects Kenya as a country. Since it is only a speculation as to whether there is reinfection or not, this study is modification of the work of [9] with the following assumptions;…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The outbreak started as an epidemic in Wuhan, China. Considering the rapid rate at which COVID-19 was transmitted, WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on 11th of March, 2020 by the World Health Organisation[9]. It is referred to as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) by the International Committee for Taxonomy of Viruses and there is a high tendency it originates from the bat since 96% genome sequence…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya

Mwangi

Mutuku

2023

JAMCS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The history of coronavirus can be traced to the 1960s when B184 and 229E coronaviruses were discovered in the nasal washing of individuals with the common cold. There was no worry about such viruses until 2003 when the first major outbreak of SARS was discovered in southern China. The recent outbreak was in 2019 when a major outbreak of COVID-19 strain started in China. The World Health Organisation proclaimed COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020. Ever since this pandemic, several attempts to intervene in the spread has been tried, yet the pandemic is not dying. This persistence in the pandemic might be due to the presence of asymptomatic individuals. This unending pandemic has hit the Kenya economy badly. In this study, we mathematically investigate the effect of governmental and non-governmental intervention on the spread of COVID-19 in Kenya. To capture the effect of intervention effectively, the model considers the presence of asymptomatically infected individuals in the Kenya. The basic reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation matrix and the local stability of the equilibrium points are established. The effects of intervention on the spread of COVID-19 are simulated and illustrated as graphs. The results indicate that intervention in form awareness and public sensitisation reduces the Exposed class, Infected Classes and COVID-19-related death.

show abstract

“…A SIR transmission model has been utilized for decision-making on lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic [20]. Asymptotic stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibria using the SEIR transmission model has been applied to establish the influences of asymptomatic cases and reinfection [21]. SIR transmission explained through a logistic model has been adopted to describe and interpret a COVID-19 outbreak [22].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the forecasting models are the models with time independent variables such as the logistic and Gompertz models [1][2][3], the Bertalanffy model [4], the Boltzmann growth curve [5,6], and Regression analysis [7,8]. The mathematical models, a system of differential equations, are the models with time independent variable such SEIQCRW model [19], SIR model [20], SEIR model [21], and SEIQRD [24]. Most of these previous models are based on using time as the independent variable and do not involve distance and probabilistic analysis.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Analysis Depending on the Distance from A COVID-19 Outbreak

Areepong

Sunthornwat²

2023

Emerg Sci J

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

COVID-19 has been affecting human beings since the end of 2019. Studying the characteristics of a COVID-19 outbreak is significant because it will add to the knowledge that is necessary for protecting the general public and controlling future viral outbreaks. The aims of the present research are to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand depending on the distance from the outbreak center by using a differential equation, to construct a probability density function from the solution of the differential equation, and to prove the theorem for the probability density function depending on the distance from the outbreak. The least-squares-error method is adopted to estimate the parameters of the function describing the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, a cumulative distribution function, a quantile function, a sojourn function, a hazard function, the median, the expected value, variance, skewness, and kurtosis are derived, and their practicability is shown. Applying the exponentially weighted moving average control chart to monitor a COVID-19 outbreak based on distance is proposed and compared with monitoring the COVID-19 outbreak based on time. The results show that using the former more quickly detected the out-of-control first passage time of the COVID-19 outbreak than the latter. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-SPER-012 Full Text: PDF

show abstract

Mathematical analysis of the dynamics of COVID‐19 in Africa under the influence of asymptomatic cases and re‐infection

Cited by 14 publications

References 35 publications

High Seroprevalence of SARS-COV-2 Antibody before Covid-19 Vaccination in Nigerian Communities

High Seroprevalence of SARS-COV-2 Antibody before Covid-19 Vaccination in Nigerian Communities

Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya

Probabilistic Analysis Depending on the Distance from A COVID-19 Outbreak

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About