Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between Fluctuations in the Korean Housing Market and the Occurrence of Unsold New Housing Stocks

Lee, Younghoon; Lee, Sanghyo; Kim, Jae-Jun

doi:10.3390/su9010107

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The economic explanation for UNHS lies in excess supply in comparison to demand of houses in the market (Lee, Lee, & Kim, 2017), and is thus an important indicator of performance of the housing market system as it sends signals about the market trends to participants of the housing market (Lee et al, 2017). Moreover, the housing market relates to a country's aggregate economy (Walteros et al, 2018) and is therefore a predictor of economic performance (Schneider, 2020).…”

Section: ~ 66 ~mentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Location on Unsold New Houses by Members of Kenya Property Developers’ Association in Nairobi County

Karimi,

Kirera,

Njuguna

2023

TUJ

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This study investigated the influence of location on unsold new houses held by members of the Kenya Property Developers Association (KPDA). Positivism philosophy and descriptive correlational research design were adopted in this study. The study population consisted of 4,085 unsold new houses held by members of KPDA. A sample size of 364 units was drawn using a multistage random sampling technique. The units of observation in this study were the property managers, where a self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. Analysis of the collected data was done through descriptive statistics that comprised relative frequency distributions, means, and standard deviations. The study also applied inferential statistics, which included ordinal logistic regression and one-way ANOVA. The study findings from the generalized ordinal logistic regression revealed that the location of the unsold new house explains 13.9% of the duration that the house remained unsold (r2 = .139). The results further showed that the distance of the unsold new houses to the nearest markets or shopping mall (β = 0.534, P < 0.05), distance to the nearest bus station (β = 0.507, P < 0.05), and distance to the Nairobi central business district (CBD) (β = 0.219, P < 0.05) were significant predictors of the duration that the house remained unsold. Thus, the study concluded that the location of the unsold new house significantly influences the duration the house remained unsold. Therefore, the study recommends that property developers should develop houses that are close to the Nairobi CBD, shopping malls/markets, and bus stations.

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Section: ~ 66 ~mentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Location on Unsold New Houses by Members of Kenya Property Developers’ Association in Nairobi County

Karimi,

Kirera,

Njuguna

2023

TUJ

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“…We also implement a VECM through the traditional two-step (residual-based) approach of (Engle and Granger, 1987) [45]. A VECM is recommended for multivariate time series modeling in which the variables are cointegrated [46]. If the variables are stationary in first differences (are I (1) processes), we can consider a dynamic error correction model as follows:…”

Section: Linear Granger-causality Testsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment Sustained by Consumption: A Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Pérez-Montiel¹,

Erbina²

2019

Sustainability

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This paper studies the dynamic relationship between consumption and investment in the United States between 1947 and 2018. Our findings support the postulates of Keynesian economics-while they are contrary to the theoretic background on which the numerous empirical studies on the saving-investment nexus are based. We find a long-run nexus between consumption and investment, and positive linear Granger-causality running unidirectionally from consumption to investment. Therefore, investment is sustained by consumption. Further, we find that the variables have nonlinear structures and, thus, we apply nonlinear causality tests. We provide evidence of nonlinear causality running unidirectionally from consumption to investment. Nevertheless, after controlling for Government Expenditure, this nonlinear causal relationship disappears, indicating that Government Expenditure drives the nonlinear causal relationship between private consumption and investment. We argue that this finding is consistent with the notion that investment decisions are guided by permanent aggregate demand, because public expenditure allows private consumption to have a sufficiently permanent trajectory to be considered as a guide for investment decisions. Our results do not support the austerity and deflation measures implemented in the last years (especially in the European Union). On the other hand, our findings call for the incentive of final public expenditure, since it favours the long-run link between the private decisions to consume and invest.

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“…Unsold new housing stock (UNHS) is completed houses offered for sale but remain unbought, thus representing a real estate inventory to the developer (Jang et al, 2010). The economic explanation for UNHS lies in excess supply in comparison to the demand for houses in the market (Lee, Lee, &Kim, 2017), and is thus an important indicator of the performance of the housing market system as it sends signals about the market trends to participants of the housing market (Lee et al, 2017). Moreover, the housing market relates to a country's aggregate economy (Walteros et al, 2018) and is, therefore, a predictor of economic performance (Schneider, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When housing income decreases, the ability to repay a mortgage decreases, reducing the interest to purchase a house. This decreases housing demand, increasing UNHS (Lee et al, 2017). The relationship between UNHS, investment decisions and housing supply-demand is dynamic and rotated as they are intertwined and affect one another in the housing market (Schneider, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Malaysia, 1864 residential units remained unsold in Klang Valley, 1861 in Kuala Lumpur and 675 in Selangor (JLL, 2019). In South Korea, the number of unsold houses has increased since the 1990s, and the central and local governments started developing plans and policies to resolve the problem in 2010 because the unsold houses have negative effects on the value of nearby properties and their local communities (Lee et al, 2017). As of October 2019, there were 60.63 million housing units in Japan, of which 8.46 million were vacant, which accounts for 13.9% of the total housing stock in the country, with higher rates in regions with less population in Japan (Tomoko &Yui, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of Transaction Costs on Unsold New Houses Held by Members of Kenya Property Developers Association in Nairobi County

Ngeera

2023

RJBF

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Despite the housing shortage in Kenya, property developers continue to record high numbers of unsold new houses thus tying up funds which jeopardizes the capacity of property developers to engage in constructing more new houses to meet the ever-increasing demand. The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of transaction costs on unsold new houses held by members of the Kenya Property Developers Association (KPDA). The study adopted a positivist philosophy and descriptive correlational research design. The study population consisted of 4,085 unsold new houses. A sample size of 364 units was drawn using a multistage random sampling technique. Property managers of the members of KPDA were the unit of observation and data was collected through a self-administered questionnaire. Data analysis was done through descriptive statistics which comprised of relative frequency distributions, means, and standard deviation. Inferential statistics used included ordinal logistic regression and one-way analysis of variance. The study findings from the generalized ordinal logistic regression revealed that transaction costs of the unsold new houses explained 18.7% of the duration they remained unsold (r 2 = 0.187. Moreover, the results indicated that registration fees (β = 0.398, p < 0.05), real estate agent commissions (β = 0.568, p < 0.05), and legal fees (β = 0.306, p < 0.05) had a significant influence on the duration that new houses remained unsold. The study concluded that transaction costs of the unsold new houses impact the duration the houses remained unsold. The study recommends that residential property developers should consider reducing the transaction costs of the unsold house to below 5% of the quoted price.

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Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between Fluctuations in the Korean Housing Market and the Occurrence of Unsold New Housing Stocks

Cited by 4 publications

References 31 publications

Influence of Location on Unsold New Houses by Members of Kenya Property Developers’ Association in Nairobi County

Influence of Location on Unsold New Houses by Members of Kenya Property Developers’ Association in Nairobi County

Investment Sustained by Consumption: A Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Influence of Transaction Costs on Unsold New Houses Held by Members of Kenya Property Developers Association in Nairobi County

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