Analysis of Rainy Days and Rainfall to Landslide Occurrence Using Logistic Regression in Ponorogo East Java

Abstract

Referred to data of Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) and Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia (Kemenkes RI), almost landslide occurrence in Ponorogo always starts with high-intensity rain. This research aimed to determine simultaneously correlation and partial assessment impact of rainy days every month and monthly rainfall toward landslide occurrence in Ponorogo using logistic regression. The data collection was conducted through Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) in the book of Ponorogo Regency in Figure on 2012 to 2016. The existing data shows that in sixty months have been twenty-six times landslides occurrence in Ponorogo districts. The data statistically analyzed in simultaneous proves that contribution of rainy days and rainfall to landslide were included adequate correlation (Nagelkerke R Square = 25.4 % and Cox & Snell R Square = 36.9 %) and in partial test proves that rainy days have significant impact (sig. = 0.024) and rainfall does not significant impact (sig. = 0.291) (α = 0.05) to landslide occurrence in Ponorogo regency. The rainy days per month were abled applied to predict for possible landslide elsewhere.
 Keywords: rainy days, rainfall, landslide, Ponorogo, logistic regression
 
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