Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Variability to Guide Sorghum (Sorghum Bicolar) Production in Miesso Areas, Eastern Ethiopia

Tamiru, Solomon; Tesfaye, Kindie; Mamo, Girma

doi:10.18488/journal.70/2015.2.1/70.1.1.11

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 3 publications

(4 reference statements)

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“…A significant increase in temperature and rainfall variability has been reported in different parts of Ethiopia ( Hayelom et al., 2017 ; Tamiru et al., 2015 ), which is in line with our results. However, the significant decline of rainfall in the mRS and especially in the lowland part of the ARB was a novel finding in our case.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Change-point detection of climate data have been performed using Buishand's range (BR), standard normal homogeneity (SNH), Pettit's and the von Neumann ratio (VNR) tests besides to the trend analysis based on Mann-Kendall (MK) test ( Suhaila and Yusop, 2018 ; Onyutha, 2016 ; Javari, 2016 ; Jaiswal et al., 2015 ; Zarenistanak et al., 2014 ; Croitoru et al., 2012 ). The Manna Kendall Trend test of rainfall and temperature has been conducted in different part of Ethiopia ( Demissie and Sime, 2021 ; Wedajo et al., 2019 ; Samy et al., 2019 ; Elzeiny et al., 2019 ; Asfaw et al., 2018 ; Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017 ; Hayelom et al., 2017 ; Tamiru et al., 2015 ; Mengistu et al., 2014 ) and Awash river basin ( Shawul and Chakma, 2020 ; Mulugeta et al., 2019 ; Gedefaw et al., 2018 ; Bekele et al., 2017 ). These above several recent studies in Ethiopia showed a significantly increasing trend in temperature and an inconsistent trend in rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trend and change-point detection analyses of rainfall and temperature over the Awash River basin of Ethiopia

Getahun

Pun

2021

Heliyon

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Awash River basin (ARB) as a system is in a state of continuous change that requires successive studies to discern the changes or trends of climatic elements through time due to climate change/variability, and other socio-economical developmental activities in the basin. The livelihood of communities in the ARB is primarily based on rainfall-dependent agriculture. Effects of rainfall anomalies such as reduction of agricultural productivity, water scarcity, and food insecurity are becoming more prevalent in this area. In recent years, ARB has been experiencing more frequent rainfall anomalies that change-point detection test and trend analyses of basin rainfall associated with sea surface temperature is crucial in providing guidance to improve agricultural productivity in ARB. Change-point detection tests such as Pettit's, the von Neumann ratio (VNR), Buishand's range (BR) and standard normal homogeneity (SNH) plus trend analysis Mann-Kendall (MK) test of rainfall and temperature data from 29 meteorological stations in the ARB were carried out from 1986 to 2016. A significant increasing trend of annual and seasonal temperature was found. The temperature change-points for the annual and major rainy season (MRS) were detected in 2001, while for the minor rainy season (mRS) in 1997. A significant decreasing trend, shift, and high variability of rainfall were detected in the downstream part of the ARB. The BR and SNH results showed that the mRS rainfall change-point was in 1998, with a subsequent mean annual decrease of 52.5 mm. The increase (decrease) of rainfall in the annual and MRS was attributable to La Niña (El Niño) events. The significant decreasing trend and change-point of rainfall in the mRS was attributable to the steady warming of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, local warming, and La Niña events. With this knowledge of the current trends and change-point for rainfall and temperature in the ARB, it is therefore essential that appropriate integrated water management and water-harvesting technologies are established, especially in the downstream areas. Moreover, early detection of El Niño episodes would provide invaluable warning of impending rainfall anomalies in the ARB and would enable better preparations to mitigate its negative effects.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend and change-point detection analyses of rainfall and temperature over the Awash River basin of Ethiopia

Getahun

Pun

2021

Heliyon

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“…A signi cant increase in temperature and rainfall of variability has been reported in different parts of Ethiopia, which is in line with our results, but the signi cant decline of rainfall in the mRS and especially in the lowland part of the basin was a novel nding (Hayelom et al, 2017;Tamiru et al, 2015). A similar nding that mRS rainfall is more variable than the MRS rainfall has been reported in the northern part of The rainfall in mRS showed higher variability than in the MRS and annual that matches with our result (Tadese, et al, 2019).…”

Section: Trend Analysis and Coe Cients Of Variation (Cv)supporting

confidence: 92%

Trend and Change-Point Detection Analyses of Rainfall and Temperature Over the Awash River Basin of Ethiopia

Getahun

Pun

2021

SSRN Journal

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Background: Awash River basin (ARB) as a system is in a state of continuous change that requires successive studies to discern the changes or trends of climatic elements through time due to climate change/variability, and other socio-economical developmental activities in the basin. The livelihood of communities in the ARB is primarily based on rainfall-dependent agriculture. Effects of rainfall anomalies such as reduction of agricultural productivity, water scarcity, and food insecurity are becoming more prevalent in this area. In recent years, ARB experienced more frequent and intense spatio-temporal rainfall anomalies, which make the shift and trend analyses of rainfall associated with sea surface temperature crucial in providing guidance to improve agricultural productivity.Method: Change-point detection tests (Pettit's, the von Neumann ratio (VNR), Buishand's range (BR) and standard normal homogeneity (SNH)) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data from 29 meteorological stations in the ARB were carried out from 1986 to 2016.Results: A signi cant increasing trend of annual and seasonal temperature was found. The temperature change-points for the annual and major rainy season (MRS) were detected in 2001, while for the minor rainy season (mRS) in 1997. A signi cant decreasing trend, shift, and high variability of rainfall were detected in the downstream part of the ARB. The BR and SNH results showed that the mRS rainfall change-point was in 1998, with a subsequent mean annual decrease of 52.5 mm. The increase (decrease) of rainfall in the annual and MRS was attributable to La Niña (El Niño) events.Conclusions: The signi cant decreasing trend and change-point of rainfall in the mRS was attributable to the steady warming of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, local warming, and La Niña events. With this knowledge of the current trends and change-point for rainfall and temperature in the ARB, it is therefore essential that appropriate integrated water management and water-harvesting technologies are established, especially in the downstream areas. Moreover, early detection of El Niño episodes would provide invaluable warning of impending rainfall anomalies in the ARB and would enable better preparations to mitigate its negative effects.

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“…Increasing in extreme temperature can cause severe yield reduction, and subsequent negative impact in the reproduction stage of many crops (Hatfield and Prueger 2015;Thornton et al 2014). The rate of photosynthesis and transpiration processes can be hampered by changes in the weather extremes, for example, diurnal temperature variations (Tamiru et al 2015), and subsequent effects on crop water requirement and soil water balance. Besides, the western part of Tigray is an unexploited high agricultural production area; wshere, livestock production, crop production like sorghum, sesame and cotton crops; and boswellia (Boswellia papyrifera (Del)) Hochyst; as industrial tree for export purpose are commonly practiced.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in extreme temperature and rainfall indices in the semi-arid areas of Western Tigray, Ethiopia

et al. 2020

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Background: Africa is the most vulnerable continent in the world; which recurrent droughts, extreme temperature and rainfall affects agriculture and food security. The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in extreme temperature and rainfall in major sesame producing areas in western Tigray using RClimDex software. We selected eight temperature and nine rainfall indices from 27 extreme temperature and rainfall indices, which are recommended by joint CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to test the statistical significance and trend of each of the extreme temperature and rainfall indices, respectively.Results: Number of heavy rainy days, number of very heavy rainy days, very wet days, extremely wet days, and maximum 5 days precipitation showed a negative trend, with significant (p < 0.05) decrease throughout the study area. Monthly maximum value of maximum and minimum value of maximum temperature, monthly maximum and minimum value of minimum temperature, hot days and hot nights revealed positive trend throughout the study areas. Total rainfall was decreasing significantly (p < 0.05) by 13.34 mm, 13.8 mm, 14.65 mm, 10.9 mm and 8.4 mm/year at Humera and Dansha, Adiremets, Maygaba, Maytsebri and Sheraro, and Adigoshu, respectively. Spatial analysis on extreme temperature also indicated there was relatively lower variability on minimum temperature in Humera, Dansha, Adiremets, and Adigoshu. On average, the western part of Tigray experienced a reduction in total rainfall ranging 8.45 to 14.7 mm/year; and increase in average maximum temperature of 0.04 to 0.051 °C/year since 1983 to 2016. The results also revealed an increase in warm nights and warm days ranging from 0.31 to 0.62 days, and 0.38 to 0.71 days/ year, respectively. Conclusions:Increase in temperature and decrease in amount of rainfall may have a negative impact on crop transpiration, photosynthetic rate and soil water balance; exacerbating distribution and infestation of malaria and leishmaniasis. The results in this study could have an important role in identifying possible present and future production strategies on sesame, cotton, and sorghum crops, which are essential cash crops produced by farmers and investors.

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Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Variability to Guide Sorghum (Sorghum Bicolar) Production in Miesso Areas, Eastern Ethiopia

Cited by 7 publications

References 3 publications

Trend and change-point detection analyses of rainfall and temperature over the Awash River basin of Ethiopia

Trend and change-point detection analyses of rainfall and temperature over the Awash River basin of Ethiopia

Trend and Change-Point Detection Analyses of Rainfall and Temperature Over the Awash River Basin of Ethiopia

Trends in extreme temperature and rainfall indices in the semi-arid areas of Western Tigray, Ethiopia

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