Analysis of long-term weather, snow and avalanche data at Glacier National Park, B.C., Canada

Bellaire, Sascha; Jamieson, Bruce; Thumlert, Scott; Goodrich, Jeff; Statham, Grant

doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2015.10.010

Cited by 21 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Lazar and Williams [2008] have shown that global warming may cause a shift of wet snow avalanche activity into the operational ski season of ski resorts. Also, the proportion of wet snow avalanches as compared to dry snow avalanches may increase in the future [Martin et al, 2001;Pielmeier et al, 2013;Castebrunet et al, 2014], although regionally, historical trends were found to be opposite [Bellaire et al, 2016].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing wet snow avalanche activity using detailed physics based snowpack simulations

Wever

Valero²,

Fierz³

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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Water accumulating on microstructural transitions inside a snowpack is often considered a prerequisite for wet snow avalanches. Recent advances in numerical snowpack modeling allow for an explicit simulation of this process. We analyze detailed snowpack simulations driven by meteorological stations in three different climate regimes (Alps, Central Andes, and Pyrenees), with accompanying wet snow avalanche activity observations. Predicting wet snow avalanche activity based on whether modeled water accumulations inside the snowpack locally exceed 5–6% volumetric liquid water content is providing a higher prediction skill than using thresholds for daily mean air temperature, or the daily sum of the positive snow energy balance. Additionally, the depth of the maximum water accumulation in the simulations showed a significant correlation with observed avalanche size. Direct output from detailed snow cover models thereby is able to provide a better regional assessment of dangerous slope aspects and potential avalanche size than traditional methods.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing wet snow avalanche activity using detailed physics based snowpack simulations

Wever

Valero²,

Fierz³

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Most of the existing studies on the effect of atmospheric oscillations on avalanche hazard (Dixon et al, 1999;Keylock, 2003;McClung, 2013;Reardon et al, 2008;Thumlert et al, 2014) and climate change on avalanche hazard (Bellaire et al, 2016;Castebrunet et al, 2012;Jamieson et al, 10 2017;Laternser and Schneebeli, 2002;Lazar and Williams, 2008;Sinickas et al, 2016) have focused on examining trends in historical avalanche activity records. While avalanche activity along transportation corridors is tightly monitored, variations in avalanche control practices can make it difficult to attribute observed changes to long-term changes in winter weather conditions (Bellaire et al, 2016;Jamieson et al, 2017;Sinickas et al, 2016). Avalanche datasets of backcountry operators are inherently incomplete as areas are large and reduced visibility often prevents visual inspection (Hägeli and McClung, 2003;15 Laternser and Schneebeli, 2003).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

Shandro¹,

Haegeli²

2018

Preprint

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Correspondence to: Bret Shandro (bshandro@sfu.ca) AbstractThe snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study interseasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an 10 experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/10 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al.'s (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using Self Organizing Maps (SOM) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach 15 produces a concise characterization measure that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the interseasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

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“…In addition, they found a similarly significant relationship between avalanche activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with more wet avalanches during positive/warmer phase winters and more dry avalanches during negative/colder phase winters. Thumlert et al (2014) also identified a positive correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation, a climate oscillation related to the Arctic Oscillation (Bjerknes, 1964), and the frequency of wet slab avalanches. Similar studies have been conducted in other geographic regions including Iceland (Keylock, 2003) and the Pyrenees in northern Spain (García-Sellés et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, since all these studies focused on avalanche observations from highway avalanche safety programmes, they only represent point observations and are unable to provide a comprehensive perspective on the overall effect across western Canada. Furthermore, changes in avalanche risk mitigation practices along these transportation corridors can add noise to avalanche activity records that make it more difficult to attribute the observed patterns to changes in winter weather (Bellaire et al, 2016;Sinickas et al, 2016;Jamieson et al, 2017). Furthermore, the seasonal magnitude of avalanche activity, even if separated into dry and wet avalanches, only provides a limited perspective on the nature of avalanche hazard.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada

2021

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Abstract. Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Several studies have examined the effect of these oscillations on avalanche hazard using long-term avalanche activity records from highway avalanche safety programmes. We present a new approach for gaining additional insight into these relationships that uses avalanche problem information published in public avalanche bulletins during the winters of 2010 to 2019. For each avalanche problem type, we calculate seasonal prevalence values for each forecast area, elevation band, and season, which are then included in a series of beta mixed-effects regression models to explore both the overall and regional effects of the Pacific-centered oscillations (POs; including ENSO, PDO, and PNA) and AO on the nature of avalanche hazard in the study area. We find significant negative effects of PO on the prevalence of storm slab avalanche problems, wind slab avalanche problems, and dry loose avalanche problems, which agree reasonably well with the known impacts of PO on winter weather in western Canada. The analysis also reveals a positive relationship between AO and the prevalence of deep persistent slab avalanche problems, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. In addition, we find several smaller-scale patterns that highlight that the avalanche hazard response to these oscillations varies regionally. Even though our study period is short, our study shows that the forecaster judgement included in avalanche problem assessments can add considerable value for these types of analyses. Since the predictability of the most important atmosphere–ocean oscillations is continuously improving, a better understanding of their effect on avalanche hazard can contribute to the development of informative seasonal avalanche forecasts in a relatively simple way.

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Analysis of long-term weather, snow and avalanche data at Glacier National Park, B.C., Canada

Cited by 21 publications

References 17 publications

Assessing wet snow avalanche activity using detailed physics based snowpack simulations

Assessing wet snow avalanche activity using detailed physics based snowpack simulations

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada

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