ABSTRACT. A long-standing problem in avalanche dynamics is to model the flow of a mixed flowing/ powder avalanche. Here we use the thermodynamic concept of configurational energy to describe the blow-out of air from the avalanche core. Configurational energy is the mean potential energy associated with the location of snow and ice particles in the avalanche core. As such, configurational energy determines the avalanche flow density. Expansion of the particle ensemble reduces the flow density and leads to the intake of air. Compression of the particle ensemble causes the blow-out of the intaken air, now laden with ice dust. Once formed, the cloud moves independently of the flowing avalanche with the initial momentum acquired in the core. Configurational energy changes in the avalanche core are therefore intimately related to the formation of the powder suspension cloud. In this paper we use the concept of configurational energy to predict the mass of air taken into and blown out of the core. This requires calculating the dispersive pressure arising from random particle movements and configuration changes related to the expansion and collapse of the flowing particle ensemble. The ice avalanche that struck the Everest base camp on 25 April 2015 is simulated using the proposed concept.

Flowing snow is a cohesive granular material. Snow temperature and moisture content control the strength of the cohesive bonding between granules and therefore the outcome of granular interactions. Strong, cohesive interactions reduce the free mechanical energy in the avalanche core and therefore play a significant role in defining the avalanche flow regime. We introduce cohesion into avalanche dynamics model calculations by (1) treating cohesion as an additional internal binding energy that must be overcome to expand the avalanche flow volume, (2) modifying the Coulomb stress function to account for the increase in shear because of cohesive interactions and (3) increasing the activation energy to control the onset of avalanche fluidization. The modified shear stress function is based on force measurements in chute experiments with flowing snow. Example calculations are performed on ideal and real terrain to demonstrate how snow cohesion modifies avalanche flow and runout behaviour.

Water accumulating on microstructural transitions inside a snowpack is often considered a prerequisite for wet snow avalanches. Recent advances in numerical snowpack modeling allow for an explicit simulation of this process. We analyze detailed snowpack simulations driven by meteorological stations in three different climate regimes (Alps, Central Andes, and Pyrenees), with accompanying wet snow avalanche activity observations. Predicting wet snow avalanche activity based on whether modeled water accumulations inside the snowpack locally exceed 5–6% volumetric liquid water content is providing a higher prediction skill than using thresholds for daily mean air temperature, or the daily sum of the positive snow energy balance. Additionally, the depth of the maximum water accumulation in the simulations showed a significant correlation with observed avalanche size. Direct output from detailed snow cover models thereby is able to provide a better regional assessment of dangerous slope aspects and potential avalanche size than traditional methods.

Abstract. Mining activities in cold regions are vulnerable to snow avalanches. Unlike operational facilities, which can be constructed in secure locations outside the reach of avalanches, access roads are often susceptible to being cut, leading to mine closures and significant financial losses. In this paper we discuss the application of avalanche runout modelling to predict the operational risk to mining roads, a long-standing problem for mines in high-altitude, snowy regions. We study the 35 km long road located in the "Cajón del rio Blanco" valley in the central Andes, which is operated by the Codelco Andina copper mine. In winter and early spring, this road is threatened by over 100 avalanche paths. If the release and snow cover conditions can be accurately specified, we find that avalanche dynamics modelling is able to represent runout, and safe traffic zones can be identified. We apply a detailed, physics-based snow cover model to calculate snow temperature, density and moisture content in three-dimensional terrain. This information is used to determine the initial and boundary conditions of the avalanche dynamics model. Of particular importance is the assessment of the current snow conditions along the avalanche tracks, which define the mass and thermal energy entrainment rates and therefore the possibility of avalanche growth and long runout distances.

ABSTRACT. To demonstrate how snow-cover release and entrainment temperature influence avalanche runout we develop an avalanche dynamics model that accounts for the thermal heat energy of flowing snow. Temperature defines the mechanical properties of snow and therefore the avalanche flow regime. We show that the avalanche flow regime depends primarily on the temperature of the snow mass in the starting zone, as well as the density and temperature of the entrained snow cover, which define the influx of heat energy. Avalanche temperature, however, not only depends on the initial and boundary conditions, but also on the path-dependent frictional processes that increase internal heat energy. We account for two processes: (1) frictional shearing in the slope-parallel flow direction and (2) dissipation of random fluctuation energy by inelastic granular interactions. In avalanche flow, nonlinear irreversible processes are coupled with variable initial and boundary conditions that lead to transitions in flow regime. Snow avalanches thus exhibit a wide variety of flow behaviour with variation in snow-cover temperature.