Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Mulugeta, Solomon; Fedler, Clifford B.; Ayana, Mekonen

doi:10.3390/w11071498

Cited by 39 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(180 reference statements)

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“…The Upper Awash River Basin comprises the Upland sub-basin, which is dominated by a mountainous landscape, and the Upper Valley sub-basins, which form part of the great rift valley area [43,44]. In this basin, none of the previous studies use the crop water requirements (ETc) which satisfy the water demands of a crop throughout the growing season as a threshold value.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Adane

Hirpa

Lim

et al. 2020

Water

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This study aimed to analyze the probability of the occurrence of dry/wet spell rainfall using the Markov chain model in the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. The rainfall analysis was conducted in the short rainy (Belg) and long rainy (Kiremt) seasons on a dekadal (10–day) scale over a 30-year period. In the Belg season, continuous, three-dekad dry spells were prevalent at all stations. Persistent dry spells might result in meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic drought (in that order) and merge with the Kiremt season. The consecutive wet dekads of the Kiremt season indicate a higher probability of wet dekads at all stations, except Metehara. This station experienced a short duration (dekads 20–23) of wet spells, in which precipitation is more than 50% likely. Nevertheless, surplus rainwater may be recorded at Debrezeit and Wonji only in the Kiremt season because of a higher probability of wet spells in most dekads (dekads 19–24). At these stations, rainfall can be harvested for better water management practices to supply irrigation during the dry season, to conserve moisture, and to reduce erosion. This reduces the vulnerability of the farmers around the river basin, particularly in areas where dry spell dekads are dominant.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Adane

Hirpa

Lim

et al. 2020

Water

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“…Moreover, Alemu and Bawoke (2019) find an insignificant increasing trend in the annual and Kiremt while an insignificant decreasing trend during the Bega season in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. In contrast, Wagesho et al (2013) and Mulugeta et al (2019) find a significantly decreased trend in Kiremt rainfall (at α = 0.1) over most parts of the Awash River Basin. Similarly, Cheung et al (2008) find a significant decline trend of rainfall in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia during the Kiremt season.…”

Section: 32mentioning

confidence: 71%

“…Gebrechorkos et al (2019) also find that an insignificant increasing trend in large parts of Eastern Africa during the Belg season. Similarly, Mulugeta et al (2019) reported an insignificant increasing trend of Belg and Bega season rainfall in the Awash Basin. Weldegerima et al (2018) find an insignificant increasing trend in both seasonal and annual timescales in the Lake Tana Basin.…”

Section: 32mentioning

confidence: 92%

“…The findings of this study agreed with a study carried out by in southern Ethiopia and reported a declining trend of rainfall during Kiremt, and Belg season over different periods. Mulugeta et al (2019) reported that an insignificant decreasing trend of annual rainfall in the Awash River Basin in the period . Gebrechorkos et al (2019) reported that a non-significant decreasing (increasing) trend in rainfall in eastern (western) parts of Ethiopia during the Kiremt season from 1981 to 2016.…”

Section: 32mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Specifically, rainfall is one of the major climatic variables that affect both the spatial and temporal patterns of water availability for agriculture, industry, food security, hydropower water supply, and energy balance (De Luís et al 2000;Zhang et al 2010;Conway and Schipper 2011;Zhang et al 2011;Elliott et al 2014;Ganguly et al 2015;Pal et al 2017;Ayehu et al 2018;Weldegerima et al 2018). In many African countries, more than 85% of the population is engaged in rain-fed agriculture (Diro et al 2011;Mulugeta et al 2019). Due to this, they are exceedingly susceptible to anomalously high and/or low rainfall amounts (Anyah and Qiu 2012;IPCC 2014;IPCC 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trend of Rainfall and Its Association with Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in West Harerge Zone, Eastern Ethiopia

Tiruneh

Amare²,

Alemu³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Rainfall variability is a common characteristic in Ethiopia and it exceedingly affects agriculture particularly in the eastern parts of the country where rainfall is relatively scarce. Hence, understanding the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall is indispensable for planning mitigation measures during high and low rainfall seasons. This study examined the spatio-temporal variability and trends of rainfall in the West Harerge Zone, eastern Ethiopia.Method: The coefficient of variation (CV) and standardized anomaly index (SAI) was employed to analyze rainfall variability while Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slop estimator were employed to examine the trend and magnitude of the rainfall changes, respectively. The association between rainfall and Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was also evaluated by the Pearson correlation coefficient (r).Results: The annual rainfall CV ranges from 12-19.36% while the seasonal rainfall CV extends from 15-28.49%, 24-35.58%, and 38-75.9% for average Kiremt (June-September), Belg (February-May), and Bega (October-January) seasons, respectively (1983-2019). On the monthly basis, the trends of rainfall decreased in all months except in July, October, and November. However, the trends of rainfall were not statistically significant (α = 0.05), unlike November. The annual rainfall trends showed a non-significant decreasing trend. On a seasonal basis, the trend of mean Kiremt and Belg seasons rainfall was decreased. But, it increased in Bega season although it was not statistically significant. Moreover, the correlation between rainfall and Pacific Ocean SST was negative for Kiremt while positive for Belg and Bega seasons. Besides, the correlation between rainfall and Pacific Ocean SST was negative at annual time scales.Conclusions: High spatial and temporal rainfall variability on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales was observed in the study area. Seasonal rainfall has high inter-annual variability in the dry season (Bega) than other seasons. The trends in rainfall were decreased in most of the months. Besides, the trend of rainfall was increased annually and in the Bega season rather than other seasons. Generally, the occurrence of droughts in the study area was associated with ENSO events like most other parts of Ethiopia and East Africa.

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Spatio‐temporal rainfall variability and trend analysis in the Tekeze‐Atbara river basin, northwestern Ethiopia

Abebe

Grum

Degu

et al. 2022

Meteorological Applications

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Spatial and temporal rainfall variability analysis at a basin scale is essential to understand water availability for sustainable water resource management. This study investigated the spatial distribution and temporal rainfall trend in the Tekeze river basin using daily rainfall data collected from 43 meteorological stations with records from 1960 to 2019. Coefficient of variation, seasonality index (SI) and trend index were used to evaluate monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall variability in the basin. The non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall's test was used to understand any rainfall trends. Results showed that there is moderate annual rainfall variability in the basin. Rainfall variability is higher in the Tsedey, Bega and Belg than kiremt season. SI results showed that majority of the Tekeze river basin is categorized as seasonal, most of the rain occurring in less than 3 months. Overall, Mann‐Kendall's test result revealed that there is no significant annual rainfall trend in the basin except for four stations. The seasonal rainfall characteristics and short duration of rain in the basin indicate that there is a need to implement water harvesting measures during the wet season for use in the dry periods.

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Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 39 publications

References 36 publications

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trend of Rainfall and Its Association with Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in West Harerge Zone, Eastern Ethiopia

Spatio‐temporal rainfall variability and trend analysis in the Tekeze‐Atbara river basin, northwestern Ethiopia

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