Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: Lessons learned and perspectives

San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús; Moreno, José M.; Camia, Andrea

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.050

Cited by 460 publications

(324 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Fire regimes frequently change in time and space, not only because of the fortuitousness of fire events (Moritz et al, 2012;San-Miguel-Ayanz et al, 2013) at short spatial and temporal scales, but also as a function of the interactions between the main fire drivers: fuels, ignitions and climatic conditions. This variability in drivers is exacerbated in the context of global change in which we are now (IPCC, 2007;.…”

Section: Forest Fire Data and Woodland Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

et al. 2015

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Aim of study: Fire regimes are frequently dynamic and change as a function of the interactions between the three main fire drivers: fuels, ignitions and climatic conditions. We characterized the recent period and performed estimates for the future fire regime.Area of study: We have considered five pine and another four woodland types by means of the analyses of 100 reference areas in peninsular Spain.Material and Methods: The estimates of the expected alterations in fire frequency and the fire rotation period were based on models previously developed for the climatic scenarios SRES A2 and B2.Main results: The results point to the large variability in fire frequency and rotation periods between the woodland types as defined, and also among the reference areas delimited for each of them. Fire frequencies will increase for all woodland types while very relevant shortenings of the fire rotation periods are expected. For the 32 yr period analysed, rotation periods longer than 500 yr were obtained in 54% of the reference areas while this percentage would decrease to 31% in the B2 and to 29% in the A2 climatic scenario. In the most affected woodland type, P. pinaster, from a median rotation period of 83 yr it would decrease to 26 yr in the B2 and to 20 yr in the A2 climatic scenario.Research highlights: We conclude that the predicted increases in fire activity will have adverse effects on some of the main Spanish woodland types due to the expected future disruptions in the fire regime.

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Section: Forest Fire Data and Woodland Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

et al. 2015

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“…A small number of large catastrophic fire events are responsible for most of the burned area (Ganteaume et al 2013;San-Miguel-Ayanz et al 2013) and greatest loss of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). These fires overwhelm fire suppression capabilities despite the fact that suppression resource levels and fire crew training are better than ever before (WWF 2006, Cardil et al 2013b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

2015

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Wildfires are a growing threat to socioeconomic and natural resources in the wildland-rural-urban intermix in central Navarra (Spain), where recent fastspreading and spotting short fire events have overwhelmed suppression capabilities. A fire simulation modeling approach based on the minimum travel time algorithm was used to analyze the wildfire exposure of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) in a 28,000 ha area. We replicated 30,000 fires at fine resolution (20 m), based on wildfire season and recent fire weather and moisture conditions, historical ignition patterns and spatially explicit canopy fuels derived from low-density airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR). Detailed maps of simulated fire likelihood, fire intensity and fire size were used to assess spatial patterns of HVRA exposure to fire and to analyze large fire initiation and spread through source-sink ratio and fire potential index. Crown fire activity was estimated and used to identify potential spotting-emission hazardous stands. The results revealed considerable variation in fire risk causative factors among and within HVRAs. Exposure levels across HVRAs were mainly related to the combined effects of anthropic ignition locations, fuels, topography and weather conditions. We discuss the potential of fire management strategies such as prioritizing mitigation treatment and fire ignition prevention monitoring, informed by fine-scale geospatial quantitative risk assessment outcomes.

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“…Extreme fires (>500ha) are relatively frequent events with recurrence time of 2-3 years, causing large human, economic and environmental damage altogether. Their ignition and spread occur under favorable weather conditions, often following drought periods, in areas where fuel accumulation helps quick fire spread and high fire intensity, they usually burn out of control and can only be stopped when meteorological conditions support aerial and ground fire fighting ( [39]). In Catalonia these fires only represent 1.4% of all fires and 79% of burned area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A spatio-temporal Poisson hurdle point process to model wildfires

Serra

Sáez

Paz

et al. 2013

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Abstract.Wildfires have been studied in many ways, for instance as a spatial point pattern or through modelling the size of fires or the relative risk of big fires. Lately a large variety of complex statistical models can be fitted routinely to complex data sets, in particular wildfires, as a result of widely accessible high-level statistical software, such as R. The objective in this paper is to model the occurrence of big wildfires (greater than a given extension of hectares) using an adapted two-part econometric model, specifically a hurdle model. The methodology used in this paper is useful to determine those factors that help any fire to become a big wildfire.Our proposal and methodology can be routinely used to contribute to the management of big wildfires.

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Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: Lessons learned and perspectives

Cited by 460 publications

References 23 publications

Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

A spatio-temporal Poisson hurdle point process to model wildfires

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