Analysis of Fraxinus pollen seasons and forecast models based on meteorological factors

Abstract

of Fraxinus pollen seasons and forecast models based on meteorological factors. Ann Agric Environ Med. doi: 10.26444/aaem/80909 Abstract Introduction and objective. The timings of Fraxinus and Betula flowering and pollen release overlap, which may cause increased allergic reactions in sensitive people. The aim of the present study was to characterize Fraxinus pollen seasons in Lublin (central-eastern Poland) and to identify meteorological factors that most determine the occurrence of airborne pollen of this taxon, as well as obtain forecast models for the basic characteristics of the pollen season. Materials and method. The study was conducted in Lublin during the period 2001-2016, employing the volumetric method. The seasons were compared by PCA (Principal Component Analysis). To determine relationships between meteorological conditions and the pattern of pollen seasons, regression analysis was used. Data for the period 2001-2015 were used to create forecast models by applying regression analysis, while the 2016 data served to verify these models. Results. Season end date and seasonal peak date were characterized by the lowest variation. The biggest differences were found for peak value and total annual pollen sum. The average dates of occurrence of ash pollen grains in the air of Lublin were between 13 April 13 -3 May 3, whereas, on average, the pollen peak date occurred on 23 April. The factor loading values for the PC1 variable indicate that it is most strongly correlated with peak value and total pollen sum, while the PC2 variable correlated with the pollen season start date and season duration (a negative correlation). Regression models were developed for the following pollen season characteristics: season start, end and duration, seasonal peak date, and total annual pollen sum. Conclusions. The fit of the forecast models was at the level of 62-94%. Analysis of the data showed that weather conditions mainly in February were important factors controlling the Fraxinus pollen season.

The impact of weather conditions on hazel pollen concentration in Sosnowiec (Poland) in 1997–2019

“…The higher the average temperature during this period, the earlier hazel starts shedding pollen. According to numerous authors, temperature in the period preceding pollen shedding has a significant impact on the beginning of the pollen season of trees that start shedding pollen at the turn of winter and spring (Frenguelli et al 1991;Frei, 1998;Rodriguez-Rajo et al 2004;Emberlin et al 2007;Kim et al 2011;Piotrowska-Weryszko 2013;Filbrandt-Czaja and Adamska 2018;Kubik-Komar et al 2018). Also statistically significant correlation coefficients were demonstrated for relative humidity 25-30 days before the season and sunshine hours -180 to 210 before the season (Table 3).…”

Temporal Variability and Geographical Origins of Airborne Pollen Grains Concentrations from 2015 to 2018 at Saclay, France

“…This covariation between typical synoptic conditions and the pollen levels has been recently documented for Swedish cities by [19] where exceptionally high concentrations of Birch pollen were found to coincide with East North East winds and significant concentrations of pollutants. Also, [22] published work on the identification of the meteorological factors that influence the occurrence of airborne pollen concentrations. winds had a larger number of occurrences than Easterly winds from 0° to 180° as illustrated by Figure. For the West sector (180° to 359°), results are presented in Appendix A, Figure A4, a maximum during summer (July and August) was noted with values ranging from 5149 to 7144 counts.…”

“…This covariation between typical synoptic conditions and the pollen levels has been recently documented for Swedish cities by [19] where exceptionally high concentrations of Birch pollen were found to coincide with East North East winds and significant concentrations of pollutants. Also, [22] published work on the identification of the meteorological factors that influence the occurrence of airborne pollen concentrations.…”

“…These families occupy large areas in Europe and are continuously studied due to their strong allergenic effects [20]. The seasonality and the variability of the pollen concentrations can be affected by meteorological parameters which are critical for the purpose of accurate forecasting [21][22][23]. Therefore, modelling of the season start, the transport and the dispersion of pollen is directly related to source typology and land use [24][25][26].…”

Ash pollen allergy and aerobiology

“…Ashes were problematic in the forest 20 years ago due to their rapid propagation and also due to storm damage; they were considered the "weed of the forest." Back then, an "ashification" of the forest was feared [22]. The mast years 2003,2005,2007,2009,2013,2015, and 2018, which were the same at all measuring stations, likely correspond to the natural rhythm of these trees.…”