Analysis of Firearm Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

Sun, Shengzhi; Cao, Wangnan; Ge, Yang; Siegel, Michael; Wellenius, Gregory A.

doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.9393

Cited by 29 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(78 reference statements)

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“…However, our findings are consistent with others documenting substantial increases in firearm injuries and deaths during the pandemic. [4][5][6] Additionally, we use the timing of schooling mode changes that applies to a majority of encounters, which may obscure finer variation for a minority originating from districts that returned to in-person instruction slightly earlier (mid-Fall 2020) or later (late-Spring or Fall 2021). Misclassification of race/ ethnicity is unlikely to be random and may attenuate effects for non-Hispanic black children and contribute to few encounters observed among other minority groups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 Although this increase may be partially driven by prevailing trends, 2 other evidence suggests that some of this increase is related to the COVID-19 pandemic. [3][4][5][6] The reasons for this increase remain underexamined empirically. Recent work proposes several potential drivers, including changes in where children spent their time; decreased parental supervision; increased firearm purchasing, neighbourhood violence and child abuse; and reluctance among adolescents to socialise outside the home.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From 2019 to 2020, firearm-related deaths among children and adolescents increased by almost 30%, making firearms the leading cause of death among young people in the USA 1. Although this increase may be partially driven by prevailing trends,2 other evidence suggests that some of this increase is related to the COVID-19 pandemic 3–6…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in paediatric firearm-related encounters during the COVID-19 pandemic by age group, race/ethnicity and schooling mode in Tennessee

et al. 2023

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BackgroundIncreases in paediatric firearm-related injuries during the COVID-19 pandemic may be due to changes in where children and adolescents spent their time. This study examines changes in the frequency of paediatric firearm-related encounters as a function of schooling mode overall and by race/ethnicity and age group at a large trauma centre through 2021.MethodsWe use data from a large paediatric and adult trauma centre in Tennessee from January 2018 to December 2021 (N=211 encounters) and geographically linked schooling mode data. We use Poisson regressions to estimate smoothed monthly paediatric firearm-related encounters as a function of schooling mode overall and stratified by race and age.ResultsCompared with pre pandemic, we find a 42% increase in paediatric encounters per month during March 2020 to August 2020, when schools were closed, no significant increase during virtual/hybrid instruction, and a 23% increase in encounters after schools returned to in-person instruction. The effects of schooling mode are heterogeneous by patient race/ethnicity and age. Encounters increased among non-Hispanic black children across all periods relative to pre pandemic. Among non-Hispanic white children, encounters increased during the closure period and decreased on return to in-person instruction. Compared with pre pandemic, paediatric firearm-related encounters increased 205% for children aged 5–11 and 69% for adolescents aged 12–15 during the school closure period.ConclusionCOVID-19-related changes to school instruction mode in 2020 and 2021 are associated with changes in the frequency and composition of paediatric firearm-related encounters at a major trauma centre in Tennessee.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Trends in paediatric firearm-related encounters during the COVID-19 pandemic by age group, race/ethnicity and schooling mode in Tennessee

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…1 Although this increase may be partially driven by prevailing trends, 2 other evidence suggests that some of this increase is related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 3–6…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 Although this increase may be partially driven by prevailing trends, 2 other evidence suggests that some of this increase is related to the COVID-19 pandemic. [3][4][5][6] The reasons for this increase remain underexamined empirically. Recent work proposes several potential drivers, including changes in where children spent their time; decreased parental supervision; increased firearm purchasing, neighborhood violence, and child abuse; and reluctance among adolescents to socialize outside the home.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Pediatric Firearm-Related Encounters during the COVID-19 Pandemic by Age Group, Race/Ethnicity, and Schooling Mode in Tennessee

McKay

Gastineau

Wrenn

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Purpose Increases in pediatric firearm-related injuries during the COVID-19 pandemic may be due to changes in where children and adolescents spent their time. This paper examines changes in the frequency of pediatric firearm-related encounters as a function of schooling mode overall and by race/ethnicity and age group at a large trauma center through 2021. Methods We use data from a large pediatric and adult trauma center in Tennessee from January 2018 to December 2021 (N=211 encounters) and geographically linked schooling mode data. We use Poisson regressions to estimate smoothed monthly pediatric firearm-related encounters as a function of schooling mode overall and stratified by race and age. Results Compared to pre-pandemic, we find a 42% increase in pediatric encounters per month during March 2020 to August 2020, when schools were closed, and a 23% increase in encounters after schools returned to in-person instruction. Effects of schooling mode are heterogeneous by race. Encounters increased among non-Hispanic Black children and adolescents across all periods relative to pre-pandemic. Among non-Hispanic white children and adolescents, encounters increased during the closure period and decreased on return to in-person instruction. Effects of schooling mode are also heterogeneous by age. Relative to pre-pandemic, pediatric firearm-related encounters increased 205% for children aged 5 to 11 and 69% for adolescents aged 12 to 15 during the school closure period. Conclusion COVID-19-related changes to school instruction mode in 2020 and 2021 are associated with changes in the frequency and composition of pediatric firearm-related encounters at a major trauma center in Tennessee.

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Analysis of Daily Ambient Temperature and Firearm Violence in 100 US Cities

et al. 2022

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ImportanceFirearm violence is a leading public health crisis in the US. Understanding whether and how ambient temperature is associated with firearm violence may identify new avenues for prevention and intervention.ObjectiveTo estimate the overall and regional association between hotter temperatures and higher risk of firearm violence in the US.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study used distributed lag nonlinear models, controlling for seasonality and long-term time trends by city and pooled results overall and by climate region. The most populous cities in the US with the highest number of assault-related firearm incidence (ie, shootings) from 2015 to 2020 were analyzed. Data analysis was performed from October 2021 to June 2022.ExposuresMaximum daily temperature by city.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was the number of assault-related firearm shootings by city.ResultsA total of 116 511 shootings in 100 cities were included in this analysis. The pooled analysis estimated that 6.85% (95% CI, 6.09%-7.46%) of all shootings were attributable to days hotter than city-specific median temperatures. This equates to 7973 total shootings (95% CI, 7092-8688 total shootings) across the 100 cities over the 6-year study period, although the number of total persons injured or killed would be higher. Estimated risk of firearm incidents increased almost monotonically with higher temperatures, with a local peak at the 84th percentile of the temperature range corresponding to a relative risk of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.12-1.21) compared with the median temperature. However, even moderately hot temperatures were associated with higher risk of shootings. Although significant, there was low heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 11.7%; Cochran Q test, P = .02), indicating regional or climate-specific variation in the daily temperature and incident shootings relationship.Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings underscore the importance of heat adaptation strategies broadly throughout the year to reduce shootings, rather than focusing on only the hottest days.

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Analysis of Firearm Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

Cited by 29 publications

References 28 publications

Trends in paediatric firearm-related encounters during the COVID-19 pandemic by age group, race/ethnicity and schooling mode in Tennessee

Trends in paediatric firearm-related encounters during the COVID-19 pandemic by age group, race/ethnicity and schooling mode in Tennessee

Trends in Pediatric Firearm-Related Encounters during the COVID-19 Pandemic by Age Group, Race/Ethnicity, and Schooling Mode in Tennessee

Analysis of Daily Ambient Temperature and Firearm Violence in 100 US Cities

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