Analysis of Daily Ambient Temperature and Firearm Violence in 100 US Cities

Abstract

ImportanceFirearm violence is a leading public health crisis in the US. Understanding whether and how ambient temperature is associated with firearm violence may identify new avenues for prevention and intervention.ObjectiveTo estimate the overall and regional association between hotter temperatures and higher risk of firearm violence in the US.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study used distributed lag nonlinear models, controlling for seasonality and long-term time trends by city and pooled results overall and by climate region. The most populous cities in the US with the highest number of assault-related firearm incidence (ie, shootings) from 2015 to 2020 were analyzed. Data analysis was performed from October 2021 to June 2022.ExposuresMaximum daily temperature by city.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was the number of assault-related firearm shootings by city.ResultsA total of 116 511 shootings in 100 cities were included in this analysis. The pooled analysis estimated that 6.85% (95% CI, 6.09%-7.46%) of all shootings were attributable to days hotter than city-specific median temperatures. This equates to 7973 total shootings (95% CI, 7092-8688 total shootings) across the 100 cities over the 6-year study period, although the number of total persons injured or killed would be higher. Estimated risk of firearm incidents increased almost monotonically with higher temperatures, with a local peak at the 84th percentile of the temperature range corresponding to a relative risk of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.12-1.21) compared with the median temperature. However, even moderately hot temperatures were associated with higher risk of shootings. Although significant, there was low heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 11.7%; Cochran Q test, P = .02), indicating regional or climate-specific variation in the daily temperature and incident shootings relationship.Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings underscore the importance of heat adaptation strategies broadly throughout the year to reduce shootings, rather than focusing on only the hottest days.

Inequalities in Exposure to Firearm Violence by Race, Sex, and Birth Cohort From Childhood to Age 40 Years, 1995-2021

“…3 Firearm deaths have now surpassed motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of death for US children, with Black children, boys, and children from disadvantaged neighborhoods in cities like Chicago, Illinois, disproportionately impacted. [4][5][6][7] The extreme fluctuation in lethal violence in the US over the past 3 decades means that successive cohorts of children growing up and reaching adulthood in these times experienced much different social worlds, what has been called the "birth lottery of history." 8 Even if they are from the same socioeconomic status, some adults today were raised during an era of relative calm, whereas others, sometimes just a handful of years older or younger, reached their formative years of adolescence and early adulthood during epidemic levels of firearm violence.…”

“…Taking experts by surprise, homicides then began increasing before spiking in 2016 and again in 2020 . Firearm deaths have now surpassed motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of death for US children, with Black children, boys, and children from disadvantaged neighborhoods in cities like Chicago, Illinois, disproportionately impacted …”

“… 3 Firearm deaths have now surpassed motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of death for US children, with Black children, boys, and children from disadvantaged neighborhoods in cities like Chicago, Illinois, disproportionately impacted. 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 …”

Association of cause-specific hospital admissions with high and low temperatures in Thailand: a nationwide time series study

“… 13 , 16 , 17 , 18 For exposure-response association, a cubic B-spline with three internal knots placed at the 10th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of province-specific temperature distributions was applied to capture potential nonlinearities and directional changes in the temperature-hospitalization relationship, particularly at temperature extremes. 13 , 16 For the lag-response association, a natural cubic spline with an intercept and three internal knots placed at equally spaced values in the log scale was used to model the lag-response association up to 21 days. This knot placement choice allowed more flexibility in the first lag period.…”

The Climate Crisis and Breastfeeding: Opportunities for Resilience

“…There are increased episodes of gun violence and other forms of violence, including interpersonal abuse with extreme heat (Chersich et al, 2019; Lyons et al, 2022; Sanz-Barbero et al, 2018). For those dependent on agriculture or with other livelihoods dependent on nature, instability of reliable income and job security can add to family stress, interpersonal violence, and substance abuse or alcoholism among partners (Scarpa et al, 2022).…”