Analysis of extreme summer temperatures in Saudi Arabia and the association with large-scale atmospheric circulation

Rashid, Irfan Ur; Almazroui, Mansour; Saeed, Sajjad; Atif, Rana Muhammad

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104659

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…This feature is in line with the results from CMIP3 and CMIP5, as reported in Almazroui et al (2016Almazroui et al ( , 2017b. Note that the summer temperature of the Peninsula is highly correlated with the quasi-stationary mid-latitude Eurasian Rossby wave train pattern and the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (Attada et al 2018b;Ehsan et al 2020;Rashid et al 2020).…”

Section: Changes In Temperature For the Near And Far Futuressupporting

confidence: 90%

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

et al. 2020

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This paper presents the changes in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula for the twenty-first century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. The changes are obtained by analyzing the multimodel ensemble from 31 CMIP6 models for the near (2030–2059) and far (2070–2099) future periods, with reference to the base period 1981–2010, under three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Observations show that the annual temperature is rising at the rate of 0.63 ˚C decade–1 (significant at the 99% confidence level), while annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 6.3 mm decade–1 (significant at the 90% confidence level), averaged over Saudi Arabia. For the near (far) future period, the 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.9 (1.2–2.1) ˚C, 1.4–2.1 (2.3–3.4) ˚C, and 1.8–2.7 (4.1–5.8) ˚C under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Higher warming is projected in the summer than in the winter, while the Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) is projected to warm more than Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP), by the end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation, a dipole-like pattern is found, with a robust increase in annual mean precipitation over the SAP, and a decrease over the NAP. The 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged precipitation over the whole Arabian Peninsula is projected to change by 5 to 28 (–3 to 29) %, 5 to 31 (4 to 49) %, and 1 to 38 (12 to 107) % under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, in the near (far) future. Overall, the full ranges in CMIP6 remain higher than the CMIP5 models, which points towards a higher climate sensitivity of some of the CMIP6 climate models to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared to the CMIP5. The CMIP6 dataset confirmed previous findings of changes in future climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. The results presented in this study will be useful for impact studies, and ultimately in devising future policies for adaptation in the region.

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Section: Changes In Temperature For the Near And Far Futuressupporting

confidence: 90%

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

et al. 2020

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“…27 Several studies have examined the dominant modes of surface air temperature variability over different regions of Eurasia during different seasons, 28,29 including some studies specifically focusing on the Middle East-North Africa region. [30][31][32][33][34] The summertime climate variations of the ME were linked in these studies to various large-scale and regional processes, such as El Nino−Southern Oscillation, Indo−Pacific warm pool, tropical North and South Atlantic, Western Hemisphere warm pool, the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, as well as the South Asian summer monsoon through the well-known monsoon-desert mechanism. 35 However, the spatial and temporal structures of the dominant mode of boreal summer ME-SAT, and particularly the main factors responsible for summer SAT anomalies related to the leading variability mode are less understood.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

et al. 2020

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Middle East surface air temperature (ME-SAT), during boreal summer (June to August: JJA), shows robust multidecadal variations for the period 1948−2016. Here, using observational and reanalysis datasets, as well as coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations, we linked the observed summer ME-SAT variability to the multidecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean (AMV). This Atlantic−ME connection during summer involves ocean-atmosphere interactions through multiple ocean basins, with an influence from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The downstream response to Atlantic SST is a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet stream that impacts summer ME-SAT variability through a wave-like pattern in the upper tropospheric levels. The Atlantic SST response is further characterized by positive geopotential height anomalies in the upper levels over the Eurasian region and a dipole-like pressure distribution over the ME in lower levels. For positive Atlantic SST anomalies this pressure gradient initiates anomalous low-level southerly flow, which transports moisture from the neighboring water bodies toward the extremely hot and dry ME landmass. The increase in atmospheric moisture reduces the longwave radiation damping of the SAT anomaly, increasing further ME-SAT. A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments skillfully reproduces the North Atlantic-ME teleconnection. Our findings reveal that in observations and models the Atlantic Ocean acts as a critical pacemaker for summer ME-SAT multidecadal variability and that a positive AMV can lead to enhanced summer warming over the Middle East.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2020) 3:5 ; https://doi.

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“…Under global warming, extreme low temperature events showed a decreasing trend, but extreme high temperature events shows an increasing trend. Moreover, the heat waves occurred more frequently (Easterling et al, 2000;Roy, 2019;Rashid et al, 2020;Sangkharat et al, 2020). The impacts of extreme climate events (including ecosystem changes, disruptions in food production and water supply, destruction of infrastructure and settlements, and increased morbidity and mortality) have had signi cant negative impacts (Singh et al, 2019;Li et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes and Drive Mechanism of Climate Extremes During Recent 60 Years in Qilian Mountains, Northwestern China

et al. 2021

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A interesting study of analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics and the reason change of extreme climate indexes based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 24 meteorological stations in Qilian Mountains from 1961 to 2017. The results showed that the interannual change of the warming index of extreme temperature was similar to that of the cold index of extreme temperature. All daily indexes of extreme precipitation except CWD passed the significance level test of 5%. All daily indexes of extreme precipitation except for CDD in Hexi inland river basin, Qaidam inland river basin and Yellow river basin showed an increasing trend. However, the increasing extent of CWD, R10MM, R20MM and R25MM in Yellow river basin was lower than that of Qilian Mountain. The warming range of the four indexes (TX10, TN10, TXN and TNN) decreased from south to north. The spatial distribution of PRCPTOT, SDII, RX1DAY, RX5DAY, R95 and R99 was similar in the Qilian Mountains. The central part of the Qilian Mountains was the area with larger increasing region, and the increase region decreased from inside to outside. TX10, TN10, ID, FD showed a significant negative correlation with altitude, while TXN, TNN showed a significant positive correlation with altitude. The changes of TX10, TN10, TXN, TNN, ID, FD and DTR were the most obvious in the high altitude area (> 2500m), and the changes of TN90, TX90, TXX, TNX and GSL were the most obvious in the low altitude area (< 2500m). Qilian Mountains, Hexi inland river basin and Qaidam inland river basin were greatly affected by the AMO, NTA, CAR, SCSSMI, SAMSMI and were slightly affected by the Nino4, NAO, NP, SOI, AO, MEI. Extreme precipitation days indexes of Yellow river basin is highly correlated with AO and SCSSMI. The effect of the circulation index of Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation, Tropical Northern Atlantic Index, Tropical Southern Atlantic Index, North Tropical Atlantic SST Index, Caribbean SST index on the extreme temperature warm index was stronger than that of extreme temperature cold index.

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Analysis of extreme summer temperatures in Saudi Arabia and the association with large-scale atmospheric circulation

Cited by 19 publications

References 40 publications

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Changes and Drive Mechanism of Climate Extremes During Recent 60 Years in Qilian Mountains, Northwestern China

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