Analysis of drought characters based on the SPEI-PM index in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Xiangxiang, 李翔翔 Li; Hui, 居辉 Ju; Qin, 刘勤 Liu; Yingchun, 李迎春 Li; Xiaochen, 秦晓晨 Qin

doi:10.5846/stxb201511102274

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…In this study, we selected the VHI to characterize drought and analyzed the spatial and temporal variation of both drought and climate factors in NCP using PSMD and the IGT method. Our findings indicated a decreasing trend in drought occurrence in NCP from 1982 to 2020, which aligned with the results of Li et al [45]. Additionally, Zhang et al assessed the changes in climate factors in typical locations within NCP, and the results revealed a significant upward trend in average AT for the following year, while precipitation showed no significant upward trend [46].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Lag Time and Cumulative Effects of Climate Factors on Drought in North China Plain

Zhang,

Wang,

Lai

et al. 2023

Water

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The growing concern surrounding climate change has gradually drawn attention to the influence of climate factors on drought occurrence. In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of drought and reasonably utilize water resources, the vegetation health index (VHI) was used to characterize drought in North China Plain (NCP) in this study. Furthermore, six climate factors: air temperature (AT), precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), specific humidity (SH), soil moisture (SM), and soil temperature (ST) were selected. The pole symmetric mode decomposition (PSMD) and improved gridded trend test (IGT) were used to analyze the spatial–temporal characteristics of drought and climate factors in NCP from 1982 to 2020. By calculating the cumulative climatic factors of 0 months, 1 month, 2 months, and 3 months, the correlation between drought and the climatic factors with different cumulative scales was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) from 1982 to 2020, the drought in NCP showed a downward trend and the climate factors showed an upward trend; (2) with the increase in AT, P, ET, SH, SM, and ST, VHI showed an upward trend, and SM showed the strongest correlation with VHI; (3) the optimal cumulative lag time (CLT) for AT, P, ET, SH, SM, and ST were 1.67 months, 1.48 months, 1.95 months, 1.69 months, 0.89 months, and 1.81 months, respectively; and (4) AT was the main driving factor of drought in NCP. This study contributes to the early warning and prediction of drought events, providing a scientific basis for water management authorities in drought management and decision making, and mitigating the negative impacts of drought on socio-economic aspects.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Lag Time and Cumulative Effects of Climate Factors on Drought in North China Plain

Zhang,

Wang,

Lai

et al. 2023

Water

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“…In this study, we found that the SPEI-12 showed an overall increasing trend during 1961-2019. Li et al [56] reported a significant increasing trend of the SPEI-12 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 1963-2014 using the Penman-Monteith SPEI method, which was consistent with our results. In contrast, Lu et al [57] showed a decreasing trend in the SPEI-12 with a rate of 0.131/decade during 1970-2020 in Henan Province using the Thornthwaite SPEI method.…”

Section: Trends and Periodic Features Of Drought Changessupporting

confidence: 92%

Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China

Guo,

Luo,

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Understanding variations in drought characteristics is of great importance for water resource planning and agriculture risk management. Despite increasing interest in exploring spatiotemporal drought patterns, long-term drought event characteristics and their future changes are unclear in major grain-producing areas in China. In this study, we applied Run theory, Sen’s slope, the modified Mann–Kendall method, wavelet analysis, and three machine learning models to systematically examine drought variation patterns, their future trends, and agricultural exposure in Henan Province, China, from 1961 to 2019. The results indicated that the SPEI-12 showed a significant increase at a rate of 0.0017/month during 1961–1999, but this has gradually changed to a drying trend since the 21st century. Drought event characteristics shifted markedly during these two periods, with drought duration and severity gradually shifting from east to west. The BO-LSTM model performed better than the LSTM and BP models, indicating that the drought frequency, higher drought duration, and drought peak would greatly increase 1.28–3.40-fold and cropland exposure is predicted to increase 1.61-fold in the near future compared to the first two decades of the 21st century. This finding not only helps developing meteorological drought predicting models, but also provides the scientific groundwork for drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Henan Province.

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“…The increase in temperature will probably increase the potential evapotranspiration and worsen the Atmosphere 2021, 12, 844 2 of 16 drought [14]. Due to the large demand of water resources and uneven distribution of surface water, groundwater is seriously over-pumped; therefore, the tendency of drought is also uncertain [15][16][17][18]. All of these factors have had a great influence on the sustainable development of agriculture and people's living standards.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought in the North China Plain over the Past 58 Years

et al. 2021

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Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional drought is of great significance in decision-making processes such as water resources and agricultural systems management. The North China Plain is an important grain production base in China and the most drought-prone region in the country. In this study, the monthly standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to monitor the spatiotemporal variation of agricultural drought in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2017. Seven spatial patterns of drought variability were identified in the North China Plain, such as Huang-Huai Plain, Lower Yangtze River Plain, Haihe Plain, Shandong Hills, Qinling Mountains Margin area, Huangshan Mountain surroundings, and Yanshan Mountain margin area. The spatial models showed different trends in different time stages, indicating that the drought conditions in the North China Plain were complex and changeable in the past 58 years. As an important agricultural area, the North China Plain needs more attention since this region shows a remarkable trend of drought and, as such, will definitely increase the water demand for agricultural irrigation. The strong correlation between these spatial distribution patterns indicates that the climate and weather conditions leading to drought are consistent and that drought conditions are independent for regions that are not correlated. If this trend continues, the characteristics of drought variability in the North China Plain will become more complex, and a more detailed water management strategy will be needed to address the effects of drought on agro-ecosystems. Recognizing the drought variability in the North China Plain can provide a basis for agricultural disaster reduction planning and water resources allocation.

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Analysis of drought characters based on the SPEI-PM index in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

Lag Time and Cumulative Effects of Climate Factors on Drought in North China Plain

Lag Time and Cumulative Effects of Climate Factors on Drought in North China Plain

Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought in the North China Plain over the Past 58 Years

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