Lag Time and Cumulative Effects of Climate Factors on Drought in North China Plain

Abstract

The growing concern surrounding climate change has gradually drawn attention to the influence of climate factors on drought occurrence. In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of drought and reasonably utilize water resources, the vegetation health index (VHI) was used to characterize drought in North China Plain (NCP) in this study. Furthermore, six climate factors: air temperature (AT), precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), specific humidity (SH), soil moisture (SM), and soil temperature (ST) were selected. The pole symmetric mode decomposition (PSMD) and improved gridded trend test (IGT) were used to analyze the spatial–temporal characteristics of drought and climate factors in NCP from 1982 to 2020. By calculating the cumulative climatic factors of 0 months, 1 month, 2 months, and 3 months, the correlation between drought and the climatic factors with different cumulative scales was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) from 1982 to 2020, the drought in NCP showed a downward trend and the climate factors showed an upward trend; (2) with the increase in AT, P, ET, SH, SM, and ST, VHI showed an upward trend, and SM showed the strongest correlation with VHI; (3) the optimal cumulative lag time (CLT) for AT, P, ET, SH, SM, and ST were 1.67 months, 1.48 months, 1.95 months, 1.69 months, 0.89 months, and 1.81 months, respectively; and (4) AT was the main driving factor of drought in NCP. This study contributes to the early warning and prediction of drought events, providing a scientific basis for water management authorities in drought management and decision making, and mitigating the negative impacts of drought on socio-economic aspects.

Quantitative Contributions of Climate and Human Activities to Streamflow and Sediment Load in the Xiliugou Basin of China

“…The method was also employed to calculate the R between land use and precipitation, streamflow, and sediment load. The detailed calculation procedures for this method can be found in [40].…”

Analysis of Agricultural Drought Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin Based on Three-Dimensional Recognition

“…Drought is one of the most destructive natural hazards for humans; as the global temperature rises gradually and the shortage of water resources is aggravating, humans face more severe drought situations [1][2][3]. Once drought occurs, it poses a serious threat to the ecological environment, water resources security, and social economy [4,5].…”

“…An et al analyzed the characteristics and changing trend of drought in Inner Mongolia based on the SPEI of different time scales [20]. Zhang et al analyzed the characteristics of drought in the North China Plain during 1982-2020 using the vegetation health index (VHI) and various climate factors [1]. Du et al discussed the spatio-temporal evolution of meteorological drought and agricultural drought based on the cultivated land type [21].…”

“…Therefore, this study uses the MMK trend test, three-dimensional identification method, and cross-wavelet analysis to analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of agricultural drought in this region, reveals the spatio-temporal evolution law of agricultural drought events, and discusses the driving mechanism of meteorological factors on agricultural drought. In view of this, the main research objectives of this paper are as follows: (1) To study the spatio-temporal trends of agricultural drought at different scales from 1960 to 2021; (2) Reveal the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural drought from a three-dimensional perspective; (3) Clarify the driving mechanism of meteorological factors on agricultural drought. The research results provide a new way to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamic evolution of drought in this study area.…”