Analysis of COVID-19 in India using a vaccine epidemic model incorporating vaccine effectiveness and herd immunity

Abstract

COVID-19 will be a continuous threat to human population despite having a few vaccines at hand until we reach the endemic state through natural herd immunity and total immunization through universal vaccination. However, the vaccine acts as a practical tool for reducing the massive public health problem and the emerging economic consequences that the continuing COVID -19 epidemic is causing worldwide, while the vaccine efficacy wanes. In this work, we propose and analyze an epidemic model of Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIRV) population taking into account the rate of vaccination and vaccine waning. The dynamics of the model has been investigated, and the condition for a disease-free endemic equilibrium state is obtained. Further, the analysis is extended to study the COVID-19 spread in India by considering the availability of vaccines and the related critical parameters such as vaccination rate, vaccine efficacy and waning of vaccine's impact on deciding the emerging fate of this epidemic. We have also discussed the conditions for herd immunity due to vaccinated individuals among the people. Our results highlight the importance of vaccines, the effectiveness of booster vaccination in protecting people from infection, and their importance in epidemic and pandemic modelling.

Monkeypox: a model-free analysis

“…A well-augmented prediction of the disease spreading is deemed to be necessary for the benefit of the policymakers and the health care systems to strategize to limit the disease spread. A broad spectrum of model-based techniques such as parameterized compartmental SIR models [ 6 , 7 ], time-series modeling [ 8 ], probabilistic master equation-based models [ 9 ], iterative maps, fractal-based models [ 10 , 11 ] and logistic equation [ 12 ] are available to predict the disease spread. These methods can be useful only if we have proper information about the epidemiological parameters.…”

A mathematical model for transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection

“…As per literature, around of the COVID-19 infection were spread from asymptomatic infected individuals [ 11 ]. To fight from these challenges, the public health mitigation strategies like social distancing, wearing of masks, contact tracing, quarantine of infected cases and maintaining the environmental, personal hygienic practices and vaccination were proved to be very effective in reducing the transmission of infection and the number of cases in societies [ 1 , 6 , 9 , 12 – 14 ]. The COVID-19 pandemic has had the significant impact on many aspects of society including economy, education system, social behavior etc.…”

Assessing potential surge of COVID-19 cases and the need for booster vaccine amid emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in Indonesia: A modelling study from West Java

“…Some relied on modified compartmental SIR models to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 spread, later used for modelling-based inference for policymaking [ [10] , [11] , [12] ]. In response to vaccine availability issues, others reported their work in studying the impact of imperfect vaccine efficacy in the vaccine rollout strategy specific to certain regions [ [13] , [14] , [15] ]. Furthermore, some studies also incorporated the effect of vaccines and mutant viruses into the models [ 16 ].…”