Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (1949–1998)

Boyles, Ryan; Raman, Sethu

doi:10.1016/s0160-4120(02)00185-x

Cited by 87 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 10 publications

(15 reference statements)

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“…Many researchers investigated the monotonic trend of climate variables and the characteristics of the climate abrupt changes (Gan, 1998;Adamowski and Bougadis, 2003;Boyles and Raman, 2003;Ludwig et al, 2004;Xu et al, 2005Xu et al, , 2007. Recently, this issue has also received much attention in China and the long-term trend and abrupt changes of climate variables in China have been widely investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

Zhao

et al. 2008

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and pan evaporation at 23 meteorological stations in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2001, the long-term monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables have been investigated. The plausible monotonic trend of annual climatic time series are detected using a non-parametric method. The abrupt changes have been investigated in terms of a 5 year moving averaged annual series, using the moving t-test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that the annual air temperature has increased by 0Ð80°C in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin during the past 42 years. One obvious cold period and one warm period were detected. The warmest centre was located in the northern part of the basin. The long-term trend for annual precipitation was not significant during the same period, but a dry tendency was detected. According to the Kendall slope values, the declining centre for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the centre of the study area. The long-term monotonic trend for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were negative. The average Kendall slopes are 29Ð96 h/10 yr and 39Ð63 mm/10 yr, respectively. The tests for abrupt changes using MTT and Yamamoto methods show similar results. Abrupt changes occurred in the mid 1980s for temperature, in the late 1980s for precipitation and in the early 1980s for sunshine duration and pan evaporation. It can be seen that the abrupt changes really happened in the 1980s for the climate variables. Different results are shown using the Mann-Kendall method. Both the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation took place in the early 1990s, and that of pan evaporation occurred in the 1960s. The only abrupt change in sunshine duration happened during the similar period (in the 1980s) with the results detected by the MTT and Yamamoto methods. The abrupt changes which occurred in the 1990s and 1960s are not detectable using the MTT and Yamamoto methods because of the data limitation. However, the results tested by the MTT and Yamamoto methods exhibited great consistency. Some of the reasons may be due to the similar principles for these two methods. Different methods testing the abrupt climatic changes have their own merits and limitations and should be compared based on their own assumption and applicable conditions when they are used.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

Zhao

et al. 2008

Hydrological Processes

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“…Climate change has attracted widespread attention in recent decades and is an issue that numerous scientists research on various time and spatial scales (Moron, 1997;Hulme et al, 1999;Boyles and Raman, 2003;Li et al, 2004;Wang et al, 2004). Long-term studies, typically 20 years or more, indicate that changes of biological and natural systems have correlations with regional temperature change (McCarthy et al, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2000

Yin

et al. 2007

J GEOGR SCI

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Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971-2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56-Penmen-Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate generally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly potential evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simultaneous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.

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“…Boyles and Raman (2003) and Bililign et al (2012) The data are examined for consistency and missing information. About 0.1 % of the data is missing and filled with cubic interpolation.…”

Section: Application: Nc Temperature Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

Sefidmazgi

Sayemuzzaman

Homaifar

et al. 2014

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

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Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (1949–1998)

Cited by 87 publications

References 10 publications

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2000

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

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