Analysis and Prediction of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Chengde City Based on System Dynamics Model

Abstract

In addition to the social economy and the rapid development of industry and agriculture, water demand is increasing and poses challenges in the over-exploitation of water resources. This research establishes a model to assess the sustainable exploitation of water resources based on system dynamics theory and STELLA software, which solves the imbalanced allocation of industrial water, agricultural water and domestic water. The model is composed of two parts: the water quantity system (including economy, population, water availability and water demand) and the water quality system (composed of the aquatic environment), which is suitable for Chengde City with a water resource shortage. The proposed model is established by data of Chengde City from 2007 to 2016 and is verified by 2017 data. Furthermore, in order to compare the water quality and water utilization of Chengde City under different development scenarios up to 2025, the sensitivity analysis of each variable (e.g., population) is carried out in this model, and thereby the water resource utilization scenarios are acquired. Specifically, four scenarios are designed and denoted: Scenario 1: keeping the status quo unchanged, Scenario 2: slowing down economic development and devoting more energy to environmental protection, Scenario 3: only focusing more on economic development and Scenario 4: aiming at steady and rapid economic growth and an eco-friendly environment. The results shows that Scenarios 2 and 3 facilitate high-effective water resource utilization compared with the current development, Scenario 1. Scenario 4 fosters the balance of water resources supply–demand in the future and preserves the water quality. This study provides an inspiring method for realizing the sustainable utilization and optimizing allocation of water resources in Chengde City.

A scenario analysis-based optimal management of water resources supply and demand balance: A case study of Chengdu, China

“…The policies and planning on the local blueprint were integrated to simulate the water resource variations. Although prior studies pointed out that restricting water demands [ 13 , 57 ], improving water use for industry and wastewater reuse [ 24 ], increasing water saving [ 53 ], installing filtration plants to provide affordable water supply [ 58 , 59 ] are all effective alternatives for achieving a water supply and demand balance, while simulation results in this study revealed that increasing unconventional water supply is more crucial than controlling water demand in improving water supply and demand balance. According to short-term and long-term optimization schemes, to guarantee balanced water supply and demand in the following 2025 and 2035, the domestic water consumption, the tertiary industry water demand, agricultural water use, and unconventional water supply should be consistently adjusted.…”

“…Li et al [ 52 ] constructed a water resource accessibility index model considering five spatial factors to evaluate the water resource accessibility in Southwest China. Wang et al [ 53 ] established a system dynamics model for the sustainable use of water resources in Chengde City, which involves the interaction among industrial, agricultural, and domestic water, but its scenario designs are limited on status quo type of simulated conditions. In this study, we combined variable interaction description and predictive simulation to analyze the water cycle system and proposed an optimal scheme for sustainable management of urban water resources by altering the driving factor values of water supply and water demand.…”