Analysis and dynamic modeling of a moraine failure and glacier lake outburst flood at Ventisquero Negro, Patagonian Andes (Argentina)

Worni, Raphaël Philipp; Stoffel, Markus; Huggel, Christian; Volz, Christian; Casteller, Alejandro; Luckman, Brian H.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.013

Cited by 156 publications

(150 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Diamictons have been associated with variable porosity values (e.g. Parriaux and Nicoud, 1990;Kilfeather and van der Meer, 2008;Burki et al, 2010;Worni et al, 2012).…”

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ice-cored moraine degradation mapped and quantified using an unmanned aerial vehicle: A case study from a polythermal glacier in Svalbard

et al. 2016

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“…Diamictons have been associated with variable porosity values (e.g. Parriaux and Nicoud, 1990;Kilfeather and van der Meer, 2008;Burki et al, 2010;Worni et al, 2012).…”

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ice-cored moraine degradation mapped and quantified using an unmanned aerial vehicle: A case study from a polythermal glacier in Svalbard

et al. 2016

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“…Comparison with other documented moraine-dam failures Geomorphological reworking of valley-floors downstream of moraine-dammed lakes by GLOFs has been widely documented (Clague and Evans, 2000;Richardson and Reynolds, 2000;Cenderelli and Wohl, 2003;Korup and Tweed, 2007;Osti and Egashira, 2009;Worni et al, 2012). In many instances, distinct alluvial debris-fans similar to that observed beneath the main breach at Chukhung are located immediately downstream of moraine (Vuichard and Zimmerman, 1987;Evans and Clague, 1994;Kershaw et al, 2005) and landslide dambreaches (Dunning et al, 2006).…”

Section: Discussion and Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Given a triggering event, moraine-breaching may result in a sudden and rapid release of significant volumes of water and sediment (Lliboutry et al, 1977;Vuichard and Zimmerman, 1987;Costa and Schuster, 1988;Evans and Clague, 1994;Walder and Driedger, 1994;Watanabe and Rothacher, 1996;Clague and Evans, 2000;Cenderelli and Wohl, 2001;Kattelmann, 2003;Xin et al, 2008;Osti et al, 2013;Westoby et al, 2014). Such Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a highmagnitude and low-frequency catastrophic phenomenon, and are capable of performing significant geomorphological reworking of moraine, in-channel and overbank environments (Costa and Schuster, 1988;Cenderelli and Wohl, 2003;Kershaw et al, 2005;Breien et al, 2008;Worni et al, 2012). GLOFs may also have devastating impacts on downstream settlements and infrastructure, and result in significant loss of life (Reynolds, 1998;Richardson and Reynolds, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Westoby

Glasser

Hambrey

et al. 2014

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Recession of high-mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of morainedammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km 2 ) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an icecontact moraine-dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10 5 m 3 and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10 5 m 3 of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam-breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine-dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146-2200 m 3 s -1 . Results from two-dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s -1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine-dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine-dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact.

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“…BASEMENT is used to model the dynamic moraine erosion resulting from an overtopping wave. Under this approach, the analysis follows a similar procedure to that applied by Worni et al (2012Worni et al ( , 2014 at Lake Ventisquero Negro, but it reduces the limitations on modeling waves that can cause further moraine collapse by using external results from FLOW3D to calibrate the BASE-MENT model. This has allowed exploration of the possibility of full, partial or even null breaches at Lake Palcacocha according to flow characteristics while accounting for soil and morphological properties as well.…”

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The resulting lake outburst floods, after breaching or overtopping of the moraine, comprise highly unsteady flows that are characterized by pronounced changes as they propagate downstream (Worni et al, 2012). Calculating downstream inundation caused by a GLOF event requires the simulation of debris flow propagation, since sediment entrainment can cause the volume and peak discharge to increase by as much as 3 times (Worni et al, 2014;Osti and Egashira, 2009).…”

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Somos‐Valenzuela

Chisolm

Rivas

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

101

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Abstract. One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 10 6 m 3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 10 3 m 3 s −1 ), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydromorphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz due to wave overtopping, and the resulting preliminary hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km 2 , most of which is in the high hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35 %, resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high hazard category.

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Analysis and dynamic modeling of a moraine failure and glacier lake outburst flood at Ventisquero Negro, Patagonian Andes (Argentina)

Cited by 156 publications

References 33 publications

Ice-cored moraine degradation mapped and quantified using an unmanned aerial vehicle: A case study from a polythermal glacier in Svalbard

Ice-cored moraine degradation mapped and quantified using an unmanned aerial vehicle: A case study from a polythermal glacier in Svalbard

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

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