Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

Xu, Yinlong; Zhang, Yong; Lin, Erda; Wan-Tao, Lin; Dong, Wenjie; Jones, R. G.; Hassell, David; Wilson, Simon

doi:10.1007/s11434-006-2099-8

Cited by 89 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(15 reference statements)

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“…In addition, the frequency of the intense snowfall events over southern China is reported to decrease, while over northern China the intense snowfall events initially increase and then decrease [16]. These changes exhibit significant agreement with the simulations by regional climate models (RCM), but with more local small-scale information provided in the high-resolution RCMs [17][18][19][20][21]. These results have been well reviewed by Ding et al [22] and Wang et al [23].…”

supporting

confidence: 63%

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Chen

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

137

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Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warming scenarios. CMIP5, precipitation, extreme rainfall, atmospheric circulation, projection Citation:Chen H P. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chin Sci Bull, 2013, 58: 14621472, doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2The significant warming that has been observed globally over the past century has a high probability of being due to the increase in anthropogenic factors concentrating greenhouse gases. This significant warming has produced a significant impact on human society, ecosystems, and the environment, and this warming is capable of causing thousands of deaths and heavy economic losses. By the end of the 21st century, as reported in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), human society will become much more vulnerable as the consequences of continuous global warming, with global temperature increasing by 1.1-6.4°C relative to 1980-1999 [1]. Due to these future negative impacts, governments and the public alike have begun to pay increased attention to climate change under the global warming scenario.Modern global climate models that are capable of realistically simulating many aspects of the climate are the primary tools for determining the attribution of recent warming and for developing projections of future climate change. Researchers in China have taken a great deal of effort to study future climate change based on such model simulations, and some valuable and c...

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supporting

confidence: 63%

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Chen

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

137

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“…The detailed analysis on these differences will be carried out in our further work. Similarly, the statistically downscaled results are also not in accordance with the results of regional climate model (Xu, 2006), which showed that temperature in China will become warmer in summer than in winter in the 2080s that may be caused by Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) simulations driven by GCM that inherit the errors from the GCM. In addition, the downscaled temperatures in the north would become warmer than those in the south and temperature over land would become warmer than along the coast, which is consistent with the published results (Xu, 2006;Benestad, 2002Benestad, , 2004Hanssen-Bauer et al, 2003.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Statistically Downscaled Temperature Scenarios over China

Fan

2009

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

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Monthly mean temperatures at 562 stations in China are estimated using a statistical downscaling technique. The technique used is multiple linear regressions (MLRs) of principal components (PCs). A stepwise screening procedure is used for selecting the skilful PCs as predictors used in the regression equation. The predictors include temperature at 850 hPa (T), the combination of sea-level pressure and temperature at 850 hPa (P+T) and the combination of geo-potential height and temperature at 850 hPa (H+T). The downscaling procedure is tested with the three predictors over three predictor domains. The optimum statistical model is obtained for each station and month by finding the predictor and predictor domain corresponding to the highest correlation. Finally, the optimum statistical downscaling models are applied to the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) outputs under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios to construct local future temperature change scenarios for each station and month. The results show that (1) statistical downscaling produces less warming than the HadCM3 output itself; (2) the downscaled annual cycles of temperature differ from the HadCM3 output, but are similar to the observation; (3) the downscaled temperature scenarios show more warming in the north than in the south; (4) the downscaled temperature scenarios vary with emission scenarios, and the A2 scenario produces more warming than the B2, especially in the north of China.

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“…There is also an amplification of the positive 500 hPa height anomalies associated with a given heat wave for Wuhan in the future climate (data not shown), while the present-day anomaly is larger by about 5 gpm in the model, which predicts more severe heat waves in the future. The simulated 500 hPa height anomaly is relatively weaker and further north, because the simulated subtropical high is weaker in the West Pacific in summer (Xu et al 2006b). Meanwhile, the simulated frequency of blocking (positive 500 hPa height anomalies) matches the observations well (0.30 versus 0.33 occurrences per year).…”

Section: Ability Of Precis To Simulate Heat Wavesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model

Yang¹,

Xu²,

Zhang³

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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An analysis of the simulated distribution of present and future (2071-2100) heat waves in China from one run of a regional model (PRECIS) using the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 scenario is presented. Results indicate that PRECIS simulates the spatial distribution of the extreme high tail of the probability density function of summer temperature in the present case compared to observations. In addition, the characterization of anticyclonic circulation anomalies with heat waves is well simulated by the model. The model projects that heat waves will be more intense, longer and more frequent, with distinct geographical patterns. Western northwest China and northeast China are projected to experience more heat waves than at present. KEY WORDS: PRECIS · SRES A2 · Heat waves Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 42: [79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88] 2010 mate in response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentration and found that there would be a more marked surface air temperature increase in the north of China relative to the south. The increase in temperature may change the distributions of minimum and maximum temperatures, leading to a reduction in the diurnal temperature range (Zhang et al. 2007). Zhang et al. (2006) used extreme climate indices to analyze extreme events and found that hot events are more frequent in China, consistent with the finding of Gao et al. (2002). A greater number of warm extremes imply an increased frequency of heat waves in China, with severe implications for society, the economy and the environment. For instance, heat waves have had a notable impact in Europe, such as the deaths of thousands of elderly people, the destruction of large areas of forest by fire and adverse effects on water ecosystems and glaciers (Gruber et al. 2004, Kovats et al. 2004, Schär & Jendritzky 2004, Kovats & Koppe 2005. Estimates based on the statistical excess over mean mortality rates amounted to between 22 000 and 35 000 heat-related deaths across Europe as a whole in the 2003 heat waves (Valleron & Boumendil 2004). Reducing the impacts of future heat waves requires addressing fundamental questions, such as the potential impact of such extreme heat events in the past and the frequency of their occurrence in the future.The present study focuses on the analyses of two 30 yr simulations. The first examines the time period 1961-1990 (present) and the second the period 2071-2100 (future) under the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario using PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) (Jones et al. 2004). The analysis provides an opportunity to examine the behavior of the PRECIS model in simulating extreme high temperature events (heat waves) and to make comparisons with observations. Simultaneously, we investigated future heat waves in China by using the IPCC SRES A2 scenario so as to make better use of simulation results for impact studies. MODELS, DATA AND METHODSTo simulate fine-scale clima...

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Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

Cited by 89 publications

References 15 publications

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Statistically Downscaled Temperature Scenarios over China

Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model

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