Analyses of trends in air temperature in the United Kingdom using gridded data series from 1910 to 2011

Prior, M.J.; Perry, Matthew C.

doi:10.1002/joc.3944

Cited by 16 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Rather than analysing a general relationship between selective forces and temperature, we explored temporal changes in a variety of temperature modes and seasonality, which could affect spring phenology in several ways. By showing a warming close to zero in winter, our study confirms results obtained in previous studies in Switzerland (Rebetez & Reinhard, ), UK (Prior & Perry, ) and southern France (Chaouche et al., ). Trends in temperatures during the blue tit breeding season (around 0.6°C per decade from March to June) were similar to trends found previously for the same region during the same period (+0.7°C per decade) (Chaouche et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine

Marrot

Charmantier

Blondel

et al. 2018

Journal of Animal Ecology

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Evolutionary adaptation as a response to climate change is expected for fitness-related traits affected by climate and exhibiting genetic variance. Although the relationship between warmer spring temperature and earlier timing of reproduction is well documented, quantifications and predictions of the impact of global warming on natural selection acting on phenology in wild populations remain rare. If global warming affects fitness in a similar way across individuals within a population, or if fitness consequences are independent of phenotypic variation in key-adaptive traits, then no evolutionary response is expected for these traits. Here, we quantified the selection pressures acting on laying date during a 24-year monitoring of blue tits in southern Mediterranean France, a hot spot of climate warming. We explored the temporal fluctuation in annual selection gradients and we determined its temperature-related drivers. We first investigated the month-specific warming since 1970 in our study site and tested its influence on selection pressures, using a model averaging approach. Then, we quantified the selection strength associated with temperature anomalies experienced by the blue tit population. We found that natural selection acting on laying date significantly fluctuated both in magnitude and in sign across years. After identifying a significant warming in spring and summer, we showed that warmer daily maximum temperatures in April were significantly associated with stronger selection pressures for reproductive timing. Our results indicated an increase in the strength of selection by 46% for every +1°C anomaly. Our results confirm the general assumption that recent climate change translates into strong selection favouring earlier breeders in passerine birds. Our findings also suggest that differences in fitness among individuals varying in their breeding phenology increase with climate warming. Such climate-driven influence on the strength of directional selection acting on laying date could favour an adaptive response in this trait, since it is heritable.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine

Marrot

Charmantier

Blondel

et al. 2018

Journal of Animal Ecology

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“…At the ends of the time series, only the 14 points to one side of the target point are used, increasing to the full 29 year bandwidth by the 15th point from each end. Similar smoothing filters were used for the earlier trend reports (Jenkins et al, ; Prior and Perry, ).…”

Section: Annex 2: Time‐series Trends and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

State of the UK climate 2017

Kendon

McCarthy

Jevrejeva

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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AIMS AND SCOPEThe International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal's main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes:• Climate system science • Local to global scale climate observations and modelling • Seasonal to interannual climate prediction • Climatic variability and climate change • Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology and palaeoclimatology

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“…Seneviratne et al (2010) conducted an extensive review of this, regarding the ability to model accurately soilclimate feedback as being limited by empirical, observed ground data. This is likely to become increasingly apparent as weather station numbers decline (Prior and Perry 2014;Perry and Hollis 2005). Ultimately, improved knowledge in this subject area will reduce inherent uncertainty in climate modelling.…”

Section: Weather Generator Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain’s future clay-related subsidence hazard

2015

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Clay-related subsidence is Great Britain's (GB) most damaging soil-related geohazard, costing the economy up to £500 million per annum. Soil-related geohazard models based on mineralogy and potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) derived from historic weather data have been used in risk management since the 1990s. United Kingdom Climate Projections (UKCP09) suggest that regions of GB will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters through to 2050. As a result, PSMD fluctuations are expected to increase, exacerbating the shrinkage and swelling of clay soils. A forward-looking approach is now required to mitigate the impacts of future climate on GB's built environment. We present a framework for incorporating probabilistic projections of PSMD, derived from a version of the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator, into a clay subsidence model. This provides a novel, national-scale thematic model of the likelihood of clay-related subsidence, related to the top 1-1.5 m soil layer, for three time periods; baseline (1961-1990), 2030 (2020-2049) and 2050 (2040-2069). Results indicate that much of GB, with the exception of upland areas, will witness significantly higher PSMDs through to the 2050s. As a result, some areas with swelling clay soils will be subject to proportionately increased subsidence hazard. South-east England will likely incur the highest hazard exposure to clay-related subsidence through to 2050. Potential impacts include increased incidence of property foundation subsidence, alongside deterioration and increased failure rates of GB's infrastructure networks. Future clay-subsidence hazard scenarios are beneficial to many sectors, including: finance, central and local government, residential property markets, utilities and infrastructure operators.

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Analyses of trends in air temperature in the United Kingdom using gridded data series from 1910 to 2011

Cited by 16 publications

References 26 publications

Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine

Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine

State of the UK climate 2017

Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain’s future clay-related subsidence hazard

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