Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land‐surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub‐continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.
HadAT is a new analysis of the global upper air temperature record from 1958 to 2002 based upon radiosonde data alone. This analysis makes use of a greater number of stations than previous radiosonde analyses, combining a number of digital data sources. Neighbor buddy checks are applied to ensure that both spatial and temporal consistency are maintained. A framework of previously quality controlled stations is used to define the initial station network to minimize the effects of any pervasive biases in the raw data upon the adjustments. The analysis is subsequently expanded to consider all remaining available long‐term records. The final data set consists of 676 radiosonde stations, with a bias toward continental Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Temperature anomaly time series are provided on 9 mandatory reporting pressure levels from 850 to 30 hPa. The effects of sampling and adjustment uncertainty are calculated at all scales from the station series to the global mean and from seasonal to multidecadal. These estimates are solely parametric uncertainty, given our methodological choices, and not structural uncertainty which relates to sensitivity to choice of approach. An initial analysis of HadAT does not fundamentally alter our understanding of long‐term changes in upper air temperature changes.
HadUK‐Grid is a new dataset of gridded climate observations for the UK produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services. The dataset interpolates in situ observations to a regular grid using methods developed in a previous equivalent dataset that had been made available to users since 2002 through the UK Climate Projections project (UKCIP02, UKCP09). The new dataset differs from the existing one in a number of key respects: higher spatial resolution, longer time series for some variables, improved consistency with regard to the pre‐processing of station observations, the use of publicly‐accessible ancillary data sources, a revised calculation sequence for some variables and improved version control. This makes for a dataset that is more internally consistent, more traceable and more reproducible. The result is a dataset of key UK climate variables of up to 1 km resolution from 1862 for monthly rainfall, 1884 for monthly temperature, 1891 for daily rainfall, 1929 for monthly sunshine and a wider set of variables with start dates from the 1960s to support the need for national climate monitoring and climate research.
Biases and uncertainties in large-scale radiosonde temperature trends in the troposphere are critically reassessed. Realistic validation experiments are performed on an automatic radiosonde homogenization system by applying it to climate model data with four distinct sets of simulated breakpoint profiles. Knowledge of the ''truth'' permits a critical assessment of the ability of the system to recover the large-scale trends and a reinterpretation of the results when applied to the real observations.The homogenization system consistently reduces the bias in the daytime tropical, global, and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical trends but underestimates the full magnitude of the bias. Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical and all nighttime trends were less well adjusted owing to the sparsity of stations. The ability to recover the trends is dependent on the underlying error structure, and the true trend does not necessarily lie within the range of estimates. The implications are that tropical tropospheric trends in the unadjusted daytime radiosonde observations, and in many current upper-air datasets, are biased cold, but the degree of this bias cannot be robustly quantified. Therefore, remaining biases in the radiosonde temperature record may account for the apparent tropical lapse rate discrepancy between radiosonde data and climate models. Furthermore, the authors find that the unadjusted global and NH extratropical tropospheric trends are biased cold in the daytime radiosonde observations. Finally, observing system experiments show that, if the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Upper Air Network (GUAN) were to make climate quality observations adhering to the GCOS monitoring principles, then one would be able to constrain the uncertainties in trends at a more comprehensive set of stations. This reaffirms the importance of running GUAN under the GCOS monitoring principles.
Editorialshould also be acknowledged: at the start of 2015 these still comprise over one-third of the UK's official climatological station network.The UK is a small and geographically complex country, and often a high density of weather stations is needed to capture localised features of our climate. As demonstrated during winter 2013/2014, even a small range of hills such as the North York Moors -rising to a modest 454m above sea level at the highest point -can have a profound effect on the weather. It is the interaction between the highly variable climate and complex geography across the UK that makes monitoring its weather so interesting. We thank all writers for their contributions to this issue.Correspondence to: michael kendon michael. kendon@metoffice.gov.uk
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