Analisis Perilaku Instabilitas, Pergerakan Harga, Kesempatan Kerja Dan Investasi Di Sektor Pertanian Indonesia: Aplikasi Vector Error Correction Model

Abstract

In a long run perspective, the aim of this research is to analyze the impact of the inflating policy on the employment growth, and the agriculture investment. For a short run perspective, the aim covers (1) the identification of agriculture price instability on certain economic blocks, (2) the analysis of inflation behavior in agricultural sector and its causality to both output and input prices and the causality within the input prices. The study uses Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, and Granger Causality Test on a monthly series data from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The result shows that the production and capital in agricultural sector are responsive to the output price change. This means that inflating the output price will effectively help to generate the output and a new investment in agricultural sector. However, as the price shock can be a source of instability, the government should be careful to apply this price inflating policy. In addition, to solve the unemployment problem in agricultural sector, the government should apply the cost strategy, such as input price subsidy policy.

Dinamika Perubahan Harga Padi Jagung Kedelai serta Implikasinya terhadap Pendapatan Usaha Tani

“…Selain itu, harga beras juga dipengaruhi oleh harga barang lain serta kebijakan dari pemerintah (Agus 2006). Irawan (2005) menjelaskan bahwa harga beras memiliki keunikan dalam proses penentuannya sehingga perlu kehati-hatian dalam menentukan harganya. Keunikan tersebut antara lain beras sebagai makanan pokok masyarakat Indonesia.…”