Análisis de sequías meteorológicas en la cuenca del río Fuerte, México

Castillo-Castillo, Mónica; Ibáñez-Castillo, Laura Alicia; Valdés, Juan B.; Arteaga-Ramírez, Ramón; Vázquez-Peña, Mario Alberto

doi:10.24850/j-tyca-2017-01-03

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…These results are also similar to those of [9,21,[47][48][49][50], who report that in 1954, 1976-1977, 1981-1983, 1986 and 1992, there were a significant number of extreme precipitation events in northern Mexico and that 1984 and 1992 were the most extreme year, with SPI-3 = 4.07 and SPI-3 = 2.47, respectively. Z anomalies of extreme wet events coincide with +PDO phase anomalies, which are indicators of extreme rainfall in northern Mexico [9,50].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…The results shown in Figure 3 also agree with one of the few studies found in the bibliography; [48], who note that an extreme wet event with SPEI-3 = 2.2 was recorded in 1984 in the northern basin of Sinaloa (Figure 3). The results for Sonora-sub-humid temperate and Baja California Sur-dry and semi-dry, with magnitudes of SPEI-3 from 1.93 to 2.06 for 1984, are similar to [46], who report that the wettest period was 1982-1984, with SPI-3 values from 4.07 to 2.90.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…In the case of Chihuahua, in the literature (graphics) they registered magnitudes of SPI-3 = 2.8 and SPI-3 = 3.05 for 1984 at the Batopilas and Bocatoma weather stations [48], respectively, which is in agreement with this study; in Figure 2 they showed an SPEI-3 = 20.02 and SPEI-3 = 2.20 in Chihuahua with a climate classification of very dry and dry and semi-dry, respectively. For Sinaloa, it was reported in the literature [49] that 1984 was the year with the highest precipitation in the period 1960-2010, which is in agreement with the results of this study because the highest wet extreme events occurred in Sinaloa-very dry and dry and semi-dry in 1984, with magnitudes of SPEI-3 = 3.11 and SPEI-3 = 2.42, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Variability and Factors of Influence of Extreme Wet and Dry Events in Northern Mexico

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The goal of this study was to generate a method to examine seasonal variability by climatic classification and Pacific seasonal factors to identify extreme wet and dry events in northern Mexico for the period 1952-2013. Using the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on scales of three months (SPEI-3) and 24 months (SPEI-24), the variability of extreme wet and dry events were measured. The SPEI-3 and SPEI-24 anomalies were divided by the standard deviation (standardized Z anomalies). A Pearson correlation for SPEI-3, SPEI-24, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the oceanic El Niño index (ONI) was applied. Wet extreme events were recorded in

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Variability and Factors of Influence of Extreme Wet and Dry Events in Northern Mexico

et al. 2018

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“…However, until 2006, La Niña, decreasing temperatures of the Pacific Ocean's surface, and neutral events were predominant. The aforementioned events were followed by a short-lived El Niño event, indicating that climate change's long-term effects may have been masked by this natural variability (Castillo-Castillo et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dry and Wet Events in Andean Populations of Northern Peru: A Case Study of Chachapoyas, Peru

Rascón

Ángeles

Huatangari

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Climate change and population growth have heavily impacted the ecosystem’s water resources, essential for anthropogenic activities. These also apply to the Andean city of Chachapoyas, located in the north of Peru, which has gone through a substantial population increase in recent years, therefore increasing its water demand. This research aimed to assess dry and wet events from 1981 to 2019 that have taken place in Chachapoyas, by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These events were periodically characterized, and the index relationship was determined at different timescales. The SPI and SPEI indices were calculated at the city’s only weather station for timescales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months using climatic data. The indices showed a remarkably consistent behavior for timescales of 12 and 24 months detecting an extreme drought event in 1993, while for timescales of 3 and 6 months a severe drought event was detected in the same year. Contrastingly, there has been an increase in extreme wet events in the last decade, hence Chachapoyas is categorized between "moderate drought" and “moderate wet”. It should be noted that the indices have a high correlation between them when calculated for the same timescale. The results were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Considering the results obtained related to dry and wet events and their relation with economic activities such as environmental management, we can conclude that the SPI and SPEI indices are useful and valuable tools for local and regional governments.

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“…Con los datos de precipitación se obtuvo un índice de sequía, cuya justificación se basa en el hecho de que en las últimas décadas se han propuesto diversos índices para caracterizar y definir las sequías como son el porcentaje de precipitación normal, los percentiles de precipitación, el índice de severidad de sequía de Palmer (Svoboda et al, 2012), el porcentaje de precipitación normal (Podestá et al, 2015) y el índice de precipitación estandarizado, conocido como SPI por sus siglas en inglés (Standardized Precipitation Index) (Loaiza et al, 2015). El índice de sequía es una variable principal para evaluar los efectos de sequía y definir sus diferentes parámetros (Castillo-Castillo et al, 2017). Kumar et al (2009) contrastaron el método de desviación de la precipitación con el SPI y concluyeron que, aunque la naturaleza estadística del SPI permite comparaciones en el espacio y el tiempo mejor que el método de la desviación de la precipitación, la intensidad de la sequía en un lugar determinado es más sensible al método de la desviación de la precipitación que el SPI; por lo tanto, se eligió aplicar el índice de sequía DP, obtenido mediante la desviación de la precipitación con respecto a la media, el cual se calculó para cada año y estado de la República Mexicana con la siguiente ecuación: dónde: DP i es el índice de sequía desviación de la precipitación, P i es la precipitación observada de los cuatro meses del ciclo fenológico del frijol y P m es el promedio de las precipitaciones observadas de los 37 años.…”

Section: Análisis Estadístico De Sequía Y Rendimientounclassified

Evolución De La Superficie Cultivada De Frijol E Impacto Economico De La Sequía Sobre Su Rendimiento Bajo Condiciones De Temporal en México

et al. 2019

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El frijol (Phaseolus vulgaris) es el segundo cultivo más importante en México, después del maíz por la superficie sembrada; sin embargo, de acuerdo con datos oficiales, en las últimas décadas han disminuido la superficie y producción, lo cual puede estar relacionado con la variabilidad del clima, en especial de la precipitación, en los ciclos de producción primavera-verano y otoño-invierno. El objetivo del presente estudio fue analizar la evolución de la superficie de producción de frijol en temporal en México y la relación entre la sequía y el rendimiento en el periodo 1980-2016. Con información de las bases de datos disponibles del cultivo se analizó la evolución del área sembrada, cosechada y siniestrada, y del rendimiento de grano, y con información del clima se calculó el índice de sequía, que consiste en la desviación de la precipitación con respecto a la media normal (DP) para el periodo estudiado. Con base en la DP se fijó una variable de clasificación “Dummy” de sequía en una base de datos de 37 años, para 21 estados de México en el ciclo de primavera-verano y 10 en el ciclo de otoño-invierno. La DP y la variable de clasificación se analizaron mediante un modelo econométrico de efectos fijos. Con respecto a la evolución del cultivo, hubo incremento del área siniestrada y disminución tanto del área sembrada como del rendimiento. El modelo estimado para el ciclo primavera-verano fue significativo a una P ≤ 0.05, con una R2 de 0.55, que indica que la sequía reduce el rendimiento en 53 kg ha-1. El bajo ajuste de los modelos sugiere que hay otros factores, además de la precipitación, que afectan la producción de frijol de temporal en México.

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Análisis de sequías meteorológicas en la cuenca del río Fuerte, México

Cited by 13 publications

References 9 publications

Variability and Factors of Influence of Extreme Wet and Dry Events in Northern Mexico

Variability and Factors of Influence of Extreme Wet and Dry Events in Northern Mexico

Dry and Wet Events in Andean Populations of Northern Peru: A Case Study of Chachapoyas, Peru

Evolución De La Superficie Cultivada De Frijol E Impacto Economico De La Sequía Sobre Su Rendimiento Bajo Condiciones De Temporal en México

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