Análisis de riesgo financiero para una Entidad Sin Ánimo de Lucro (ESAL) dedicada a proyectos de mejoramiento de vivienda rural en Cundinamarca, Colombia

Abstract

En el presente texto se exponen consideraciones de viabilidad y riesgo financiero de una Entidad Sin Ánimo de Lucro (ESAL) que se dedicará a promocionar proyectos que mejoren condiciones de vivienda rural, en el departamento de Cundinamarca en Colombia. Se adelanta un análisis de riesgo financiero que simula el tiempo y costo de ejecución de un proyecto de mejoramiento de vivienda mediante la dinámica de sistemas. Los resultados inicialmente obtenidos garantizan un flujo de caja positivo para sus primeros cinco años de operación, por lo que se encontró viabilidad financiera de esta ESAL. Los resultados indicaron un potencial de instalación de 248 sanitarios y la construcción de 345 pisos en concreto con un área promedio por piso de 20m2

A Monte Carlo Simulation for the Improvement of Drinking Water and Sewerage Services in a Northern Settlement in Peru

“…Likely, there was a chance of 75% that the project's Internal Rate of Return would be between 60% and 75%. Hence, these results match with the findings of [12][13][14][15]. Those studies found that water and sanitization projects had a good chance of being sustainable and beneficial to the population correctly.…”

“…However, in the project's Internal Rate of Return, only former users benefit, and population growth positively impacts production. Then, those results do not match with the results of [12,14,15] because those studies stated that other factors impacted the Internal Rate of Return. The differences might be related to how the previous studies analyzed the financial information about their projects.…”

“…It is important to add that study [13] also found that a critical value was the initial investment for the project's sustainability. In the study [15], it was discovered that the benefit to the population was critical in the sensibility analysis. Likely, the current research encountered that population growth was the most important variable for the project's Net Present Value, followed by former users' and new users' benefits.…”

“…The weight percentages were 44.4%, 15.6%, and 0.5% respectively. In Colombia, [15] studied the viability of a project to give drinking water to indigenous communities in El Cauca Valley. Hence, it was employed the Monte Carlo simulation to have a better perception of the project's risk.…”