Analisis Dampak Insentif Fiskal Penetapan Harga Gas Bagi Industri Domestik Terhadap Perekonomian: Pendekatan Model CGE Dinamis

Abstract

AbstrakOptimalisasi pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk kebutuhan domestik terkendala oleh mahalnya harga gas yang sampai di tangan industri pengguna gas domestik. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, pemerintah telah mengeluarkan insentif fiskal berupa Perpres nomor 40 tahun 2016 tentang Penetapan Harga Gas Bumi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalis dampak dari insentif fiskal tersebut terhadap perekonomian nasional. Hasil simulasi dengan model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Fiskal Dinamis menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan penetapan harga gas bumi tertentu dapat meningkatkan kinerja perekonomian nasional. Hal tersebut ditandai dengan adanya peningkatan GDP pada kisaran 0,12% - 0,13% pada jangka menengah. Pada sisi industri, harga input gas yang lebih rendah akan memangkas biaya produksi sehingga membuat output industri menjadi lebih murah kompetitif. Industri yang mengalami peningkatan output antara lain industri besi baja, industri pupuk, industri keramik, industri kaca, industri barang-barang dari karet, industri pulp & kertas, dan industri makanan & minuman.AbstractExpensive domestic gas price has constrained the natural gas utilization by the domestic industry. To deal with this situation, the government has issued fiscal incentives of Presidential Regulation number 40 of 2016 on the Natural Gas Price Regulation. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the fiscal incentives to the economy. The Simulation result with Dynamic Fiscal CGE model shows that overall, the fiscal incentive will improve the performance of the national economy. The GDP increases in the range of 0.12% - 0.13% in the medium term. On the micro side, lower gas input prices will lower production costs, thus making industrial output cheaper and more competitive. The output of the following Industries are increasing: steel, fertilizer, ceramic, glass, rubber, pulp & paper, and food & beverage

The Impact of Certain Price of Natural Gas Policy on Indonesia’s Economy

“…Along with the increase in output, labor also increased, in which the highest increase was on electricity and gas provision (3.6%), followed by chemical industry (0.87%), and base metal industry (0.84%). This increase in labor is in line with the findings of Nugroho & Amir (2018).…”

“…However, in the long-run, the positive impact of the policy on household income will not be quite significant. The results of a similar analysis are in line with the findings of Nugroho & Amir (2018) which found that a decrease in gas prices would have an increasing impact on households by 0.35% -0.36%. The simulation results show that the average positive impacts of natural gas price reduction shock in both scenarios were present in the short-run, but not in the long-run.…”

“…He & Lin (2017) found that a natural gas price increase can reduce carbon emissions, increase CPI, and reduce GDP. Nugroho & Amir (2018) found that, on a macro basis, providing incentives in the form of lower natural gas prices can increase GDP by 0.12% -0.13%. In sectoral perspective, natural gas price incentives for industrial sectors can reduce production costs, so that the output prices become more competitive.…”

Instrumen Moneter Dan Belanja Daerah Serta Pengaruhnya Terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka

“…Ekonomi moneter adalah bagian dari ilmu ekonomi yang mempelajari tentang sifat, fungsi dan pengaruh uang terhadap kegiatan dalam perekonomian (Nugroho & Amir, 2018). Kegiatan perekonomian dapat mempengaruhi tingkat pengangguran (Sulista, 2019), produksi dan sebagainya.…”

Gas Price Policy Analysis for Fertilizer Industries in Indonesia Based on Netback from Final Product

“…However, cost of raw materials is not competitive with some other countries. From an industrial standpoint, lower gas prices will reduce production costs, and make output cheaper (Nugroho, et al, 2018). Based on pricing theory, that pricing mechanism should create a price balance between consumers and producers (Tooth, 2014).…”