Análise Espaço-Temporal de Mudança de Uso e Cobertura da Terra na Região do Vale do Paraíba Paulista: Desenvolvimento de Cenários Futuros (Spatial and Temporal Changes in the Land Use and Cover of the Paraíba Valley in São Paulo, Brazil: Development of Future Scenarios)

Abstract

The Paraíba Valley in São Paulo, Brazil, is marked by great transformations. The Brazilian economic cycles changed this region and transformed it into a great mosaic of pastures, forest fragments, and urban areas. Temporal studies on land use and cover have given information on these changes and evaluated their impacts. The conversion of extensive areas of the Atlantic Forest into eucalyptus crops is noticeable; this monoculture developed greatly and is expanding steadily in this valley. This land-use conversion has consequences, such as forest fragmentation, and losses in biodiversity, and water and soil quality. Developing future scenarios (2010 to 2050) that simulate changes in land use and cover is essential for an efficient and sustainable public management. Thus, the objective of the present study was to develop future scenarios while considering different social, economic, and environmental issues, based on analyses of the dynamics of forestry expansion in the Paraíba Valley in São Paulo, Brazil. The scenarios developed were classified as Trend, maintaining the same change patterns of the observed period (2000 to 2005); Optimistic, decreasing conversion rates of natural vegetation into forestry and pasture areas; and Pessimist, increasing deforestation rates and increasing eucalyptus and pasture areas. Future scenarios for the period of 2010 to 2050 were developed in the Dinamica Ego software, and it proved to be effective, presenting trends and predispositions of changes in land use. These results can be used for environmental planning focused on sustainability, better management of natural resources, and development of economic activities.

Evolução da cobertura e uso da terra da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Jari entre os anos de 1990 e 2020

“…Para Rezende (2017), os estudos espaço-temporais em volta da mudança de uso e cobertura da terra se tornam importantes para entender a dinâmica local e para o monitoramento ambiental. O avanço desses estudos e das ferramentas de geoprocessamento e sensoriamento remoto permitem hoje não só analisar o passado e presente, mas também fazer proposições futuras a fi m de simular como área estudada estará daqui a alguns anos, levando em consideração aspectos físicos e socioeconômicos.…”

Desertification risk assessment in Northeast Brazil: Current trends and future scenarios

“…To generate LULC conversion rates, we used the modeling platform Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects-Dinamica EGO v4.0.9.0 (Soares- Filho, Cerqueira, & Pennachin, 2002). This platform has been successfully applied in several studies (de Rezende, Carriello, Rodriguez, & dos Santos Neves, 2018;Elz, Tansey, Page, & Trivedi, 2015;Kolb & Galicia, 2016;Mendoza-Ponce, Corona-Núñez, Kraxner, Leduc, & Patrizio, 2018;Pavani, Júnior, Inouye, Vieira, & Mello, 2018;Thompson, Plisinski, Olofsson, Holden, & Duveneck, 2017) for a large variety of land uses and environments.…”