Desertification risk assessment in Northeast Brazil: Current trends and future scenarios

Vieira, Rita Marcia da Silva Pinto; Tomasella, Javier; Barbosa, Alexandre; Martins, Minella Alves; Rodríguez, Daniel Andrés; Rezende, Fernanda Silva de; Carriello, Felix; Santana, Marcos de Oliveira

doi:10.1002/ldr.3681

Cited by 56 publications

(25 citation statements)

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“…The Andes are home to 99% of the world's remaining tropical glaciers (Yarleque et al 2018;Rabatel et al 2013;Veettil and Kamp 2019), which are retreating at a rate not seen in recorded history (López-Moreno et al 2014;Schauwecker et al 2014;Veettil and Kamp 2019;Masiokas et al 2020). Changing climate patterns may also have a significant role in soil degradation and desertification-an issue faced by several countries across the continent (Spinoni et al 2015;Pérez et al 2017;Vieira et al 2021)-which has serious consequences for social-ecological sustainability and food security.…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

et al. 2021

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We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

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Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

et al. 2021

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“…Esse índice tem sido utilizado com medidor das áreas sujeitas aos processos de desertificação pelo UNEP(UNEP, 2007). Neste contexto,Vieira et al (2020) utilizaram este índice para avaliar os riscos de desertificação no Nordeste do Brasil, mostrando as tendências atuais e cenários futuros.Cálculo do Índice efetivo de umidade de ThornthwaitePara o cálculo do Índice efetivo de umidade (I m ), relaciona os dois índices acima, a expressão que fornece este índice é:…”

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Classificação de áreas semiáridas e subúmidas secas utilizando diferentes índices climáticos

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Matsunaga

Nunes

et al. 2021

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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As delimitações das áreas semiáridas do Nordeste do Brasil e norte de Minas Gerais podem apresentar grandes diferenças conforme os métodos de classificação climática e de estimativa da evapotranspiração potencial (ET0) utilizados. Para demostra esta afirmação de forma quantitativa, nesta pesquisa, delimitou-se as áreas semiáridas usando dois métodos de classificação climática (1) índice efetivo de umidade de Thornthwaite (Im) e (2) índice de aridez do Programa das Nações Unidas para o Meio Ambiente (IaUNEP), enquanto, para a estimativa da ET0 usou-se os métodos de (1) Thornthwaite e (2) Penman-Monteith-FAO (PMF), totalizando quatro diferentes configurações de delimitações de áreas semiáridas. Com a utilização de Im observou-se um aumento do grau de aridez e de áreas semiáridas quando comparado com os resultados obtidos com o uso de IaUNEP. Do mesmo modo, ao usar a estimativa de ET0 pelo método PMF verifica-se um aumento da aridez e das terras semiáridas em comparação com a ET0 calculada por Thornthwaite. Como o método PMF é geralmente reconhecido como um método padrão para estimativa da ET0. Portanto, é possível certificar que o grau de aridez e de terras semiáridas no Nordeste do Brasil são mais elevados do que aqueles mostrados nos estudos com a estimativa de ET0 por Thornthwaite. Classification of semi-árid and sub-humid sreas using different climate indexes A B S T R A C TThe delimitations of semi-arid areas in the Northeast of Brazil and northern Minas Gerais can present great differences according to the methods of climatic classification and estimation of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) used. To demonstrate this statement in a quantitative way, in this research, we used two different methods of climate classification: (1) the moisture index of Thornthwaite (Im) and (2) aridity index of the United Nations Environment Program (IaUNEP), as well as, two methods to estimate ET0: of (1) Thornthwaite and (2) Penman-Monteith-FAO (PMF), totaling four different configurations of delimitations of semi-arid areas. As the use of Im an increase in the degree of aridity and semi-arid areas was observed when compared with the results obtained as the use of IaUNEP. Similarly, when using the ET0 estimate using the PMF method, there is an increase in aridity and semi-arid land compared to the ET0 calculated by Thornthwaite. As the PMF method is generally recognized as a standard method for estimating ET0. Therefore, it is possible to affirm that the degree of aridity and semi-arid lands in Northeast Brazil are higher than those shown in studies with the estimate of ET0 by Thornthwaite. Keywords: Semiarid, climatic classification, potential evapotranspiration

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“…Desertification risk scenarios in northeastern Brazil predict that 75% of forest areas will decline from 2010 to 2040. In this scenario, most forest areas will be replaced by agricultural lands [1]. Therefore, lands with more suitable vegetation are more resistant to degradation.…”

Section: Destruction Of Plant Resourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In sensitive and fragile desert-adapted ecosystems, degradation processes can easily be converted into an irreversible trend. Desertification reduces access to ecosystem services, increases food insecurity and poverty, and affects communities' well-being [1]. Desertification is land degradation or the impoverishment of arid, semi-arid (drylands), and some subhumid ecosystems, resulting from many factors including human activities and climatic change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Desertification in Agricultural Lands: Approaches to Mitigation

Rastgoo¹,

Hasanfard²

2022

Deserts and Desertification

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Urban expansion and industrial development destroy agricultural lands, pastures, and forests, and reduce the ecological and biological potential of lands, known as desertification. Diminished land potential due to one or a combination of processes such as erosion, destruction of water resources, destruction of vegetation, and swamping, by climate and human factors, is called desertification. Among these, human factors have a vital role in the emergence of this phenomenon. Excessive human economic activity upsets the ecological balance of arid and semi-arid regions, leading to adverse environmental changes. With the expansion of deserts in some parts of the world, food production and water resources are declining, resulting in environmental migration. Due to the limited capacity of urban areas to provide facilities and services, these migrations will cause severe socio-economic problems. In general, climatic and human factors are among the fundamental causes of desertification in the world. Preventing improper agricultural practices that lead to salinity and widespread soil degradation requires well-planned and strengthened awareness programs and development of information and care systems for areas exposed to desertification and drought, while also addressing the economic and social dimensions in these ecosystems.

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Desertification risk assessment in Northeast Brazil: Current trends and future scenarios

Cited by 56 publications

References 48 publications

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

Classificação de áreas semiáridas e subúmidas secas utilizando diferentes índices climáticos

Desertification in Agricultural Lands: Approaches to Mitigation

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