Análise Comparativa de Risco e Retorno entre Títulos Públicos e Mercado Imobiliário de Fortaleza

Abstract

The current economic instability in the country, which has worsened in recent years has generated insecurity in real estate investors. Where once there were great gains, appreciation and high constants, today it presents risk, stagnation and an exacerbated timidity due to the current dynamics of the market. However, arbitrage opportunities can present better returns taking into account the same type of investment. However, the real estate investor should look more closely at each opportunity before making the decision to invest. The objective of this study was to compare real estate investments in Fortaleza with fixed income investments. In order to do so, a comparative analysis of profitability and market risk using the SHARPE index among the 20 most traded neighborhoods of Fortaleza, considering them as real estate funds (FII), and public securities TFB, NFB, NTN-B, NTN-Main B, NTN-C and NTN-F during the period from January / 14 to December / 17. As a result, it was found that in the year 2014, 25% of the districts had an average return of between 2% and 3% a month, and approximately 75% had higher returns than public bonds, which had yields below 1% per month. As of 2015, this movement has reversed and Fortaleza's neighborhoods started to show lower average yields than investments in public bonds, which means investment with greater risks for investments in the real estate market. In 2016, Sharpe's index values were between-3.00% and-0.44%, indicating an increased risk in the industry. In this way, public bonds became more attractive between 2015 and 2017. In 2017, average profitability in the neighborhoods of Fortaleza showed signs of improvement, but still did not surpass fixed-income investments. The results found can help investors improve the quality of their decisions by seeking a more secure position during the crisis period.