Climate exerts a powerful influence on biological processes, but the effects of climate change on ecosystem nutrient flux and cycling are poorly resolved. Although rare, long-term records offer a unique opportunity to disentangle effects of climate from other anthropogenic influences. Here, we examine the longest and most complete record of watershed nutrient and climate dynamics available worldwide, which was collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States. We used empirical analyses and model calculations to distinguish between effects of climate change and past perturbations on the forest nitrogen (N) cycle. We find that climate alone cannot explain the occurrence of a dramatic >90% drop in watershed nitrate export over the past 46 y, despite longer growing seasons and higher soil temperatures. The strongest climate influence was an increase in soil temperature accompanied by a shift in paths of soil water flow within the watershed, but this effect explained, at best, only ∼40% of the nitrate decline. In contrast, at least 50-60% of the observed change in the N export could be explained by the long-lasting effect of forest cutting in the early 1900s on the N cycle of the soil and vegetation pools. Our analysis shows that historic events can obscure the influence of modern day stresses on the N cycle, even when analyses have the advantage of being informed by 0.5-century-long datasets. These findings raise fundamental questions about interpretations of long-term trends as a baseline for understanding how climate change influences complex ecosystems.forest ecosystems | long-term monitoring | streamwater chemistry | precipitation chemistry | nutrient cycles O ur understanding of how climate change impacts complex ecological systems depends on our conception of a baseline against which change can be judged and knowledge of how this baseline has been shaped by historical conditions. At the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, for example, we know that current concentrations of nitrate in watershed streams are the lowest in 46 y of measurement and that ecosystem nitrate losses have decreased by >90% over this time (Fig. 1A). If we were to take the early high nitrate period (1969)(1970)(1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976) as the historical reference, we would estimate that nitrate export has dropped by a total of ∼125 kg nitrogen (N) ha −1 during the 30 y of the decline (Fig. 1A). Such a large drop in N export is ecologically relevant and constitutes a dramatic shift in the ecosystem N cycle: from a leaky cycle that retained only ∼30% of external inputs in the high stream water nitrate period to a highly retentive cycle that currently captures ∼90% of atmospheric inputs (Methods).We adopt a watershed mass balance approach (1, 2) to examine the factor(s) responsible for this dramatic change in the forest N cycle (Fig. 2). Because climate is an overriding and powerful driver of biological process, we pay particular attention to whether the observed changes i...