An uncertainty-based framework for agricultural water-land resources allocation and risk evaluation

Li, Mo; Guo, Ping; Singh, Vijay P.; Yang, Gaiqiang

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2016.06.011

Cited by 54 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…However, there are many uncertainties in the environmental water system, such as the variability in the availability of water resources (especially flood resources), stochastic variability in the water quotas of ecosystems, fuzzy variability in water requirements, and the complexity of the interconnected processes. All these uncertainties present challenges for optimal water resource allocation to maximize ecological service values [11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a Fuzzy Two-Stage Chance Constrained Stochastic Programming Model for Optimization of the Ecological Services Value of the Interconnected River System Network Project in the Western Jilin Province, China

Cai

Meng

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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Incremental ecological service value is an important assessment indicator for ecosystem restoration projects, such as the interconnected river system network project in western Jilin Province, China. In this paper, a fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained stochastic programming (FTSCCP) model is proposed for the optimization of regional incremental ecological service value through adjustments to the original water diversions and ecological water supplement schemes for ecosystem restoration under different management requirements and scenarios. The proposed method can effectively address uncertainties such as fuzzy parameters, probability distributions, and random variables in optimizing processes simultaneously. The results reveal that, under the requirement of meeting the original plan, a decrease in restoration scale would mainly appear under low-flow scenarios, and for the other scenarios, the original plan would be fully realized with an increase in flood utilization and a decrease in normal water supplementation. For the requirement of maximizing the incremental ecological service value, the adjustments would mainly be increases in water supplementation for reed wetlands and marsh wetlands and decreases in water surface area, including fish ponds and crab ponds. The ecological service values would be 11,256.79 million CNY (Chinese Yuan), 16,465.11 million CNY and 17,639.59 million CNY under low-, normal- and high-flow scenarios, respectively, with increases of 3.2%, 6.9% and 14.5% compared to the values based on the requirement of meeting the original plan. The results would be helpful for guiding regional ecosystem restoration and water resource management in the western Jilin Province.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a Fuzzy Two-Stage Chance Constrained Stochastic Programming Model for Optimization of the Ecological Services Value of the Interconnected River System Network Project in the Western Jilin Province, China

Cai

Meng

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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“…Thus, there is great conflict between the growing demand for water resources and limited water resources. However, irrigation consumes approximately 70% of the world’s freshwater resources [7]. Especially in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China, characterized with high evaporation and low rainfall, approximately 90% of freshwater resources has been used to irrigation [7–10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, irrigation consumes approximately 70% of the world’s freshwater resources [7]. Especially in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China, characterized with high evaporation and low rainfall, approximately 90% of freshwater resources has been used to irrigation [7–10]. Therefore, optimization allocation of irrigation water resources has great positive influence on the sustainable development of a region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An inexact fractional programming model for irrigation water resources optimal allocation under multiple uncertainties

Ren

Yang

2019

PLoS ONE

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In reality, severe water shortage crisis has made bad impact on the sustainable development of a region. In addition, uncertainties are inevitable in the irrigation system. Therefore, a fully fuzzy fractional programming model for optimization allocation of irrigation water resources, which aimed at not only irrigation water optimization but also improving water use efficiency. And then the developed model applied to a case study in Minqin County, Gansu Province, China, which selected maximum economic benefit of per unit water resources as planning objective. Moreover, surface and underground water are main water sources for irrigation. Thus, conjunctive use of surface and underground water was taken under consideration in this study. By solving the developed model, a series of optimal crop area and planting schemes, which were under different α -cut levels, were offered to the decision makers. The obtained results could be helpful for decision makers to make decision on the optimal use of irrigation water resources under multiple uncertainties.

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“…The need to consider two-fold uncertainty in practical evaluation/optimization problems has also been widely recognized [28][29][30][31]. Current risk evaluation research has tended to consider uncertainty as either fuzzy or random uncertainty [19,32].…”

Section: (3) Fuzzy Random Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

Tang

2018

Sustainability

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As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage), random (e.g., underground water levels, river width), and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation). By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

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An uncertainty-based framework for agricultural water-land resources allocation and risk evaluation

Cited by 54 publications

References 34 publications

Application of a Fuzzy Two-Stage Chance Constrained Stochastic Programming Model for Optimization of the Ecological Services Value of the Interconnected River System Network Project in the Western Jilin Province, China

Application of a Fuzzy Two-Stage Chance Constrained Stochastic Programming Model for Optimization of the Ecological Services Value of the Interconnected River System Network Project in the Western Jilin Province, China

An inexact fractional programming model for irrigation water resources optimal allocation under multiple uncertainties

Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

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