An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?

Maier, Holger R.; Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Delden, Hedwig van; Riddell, Graeme; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Kwakkel, Jan H.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014

Cited by 345 publications

(270 citation statements)

References 99 publications

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“…As illustrated in Chapters 8, 14 and 15, the report clearly recognises the need for social and political perspectives, as well as technical perspectives for effective adaptation to climate change. Such consideration of multiple perspectives requires careful attention to the: (i) progression of drivers-e.g., sea level rise, rainfall, GDP, urbanisation-that constitute the context in which adaptation happens; (ii) uncertainties attached to the projection of the drivers in the future scenarios; (iii) robustness of adaptation measures in the future across scenarios [23].…”

Section: Contemporary Adaptation Planning Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structuring Climate Adaptation through Multiple Perspectives: Framework and Case Study on Flood Risk Management

Radhakrishnan

Pathirana

Ashley

et al. 2017

Water

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Adaptation to climate change is being addressed in many domains. This means that there are multiple perspectives on adaptation; often with differing visions resulting in disconnected responses and outcomes. Combining singular perspectives into coherent, combined perspectives that include multiple needs and visions can help to deepen the understanding of various aspects of adaptation and provide more effective responses. Such combinations of perspectives can help to increase the range and variety of adaptation measures available for implementation or avoid maladaptation compared with adaptations derived from a singular perspective. The objective of this paper is to present and demonstrate a framework for structuring the local adaptation responses using the inputs from multiple perspectives. The adaptation response framing has been done by: (i) contextualizing climate change adaptation needs; (ii) analyzing drivers of change; (iii) characterizing measures of adaptation; and (iv) establishing links between the measures with a particular emphasis on taking account of multiple perspectives. This framework was demonstrated with reference to the management of flood risks in a case study Can Tho, Vietnam. The results from the case study show that framing of adaptation responses from multiple perspectives can enhance the understanding of adaptation measures, thereby helping to bring about more flexible implementation practices.

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Section: Contemporary Adaptation Planning Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structuring Climate Adaptation through Multiple Perspectives: Framework and Case Study on Flood Risk Management

Radhakrishnan

Pathirana

Ashley

et al. 2017

Water

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“…Given that scenarios have become a typical means for quantifying uncertainty in the face of multiple plausible futures (Maier et al 2016), there are also strong links between the concepts of deep uncertainty, robustness and scenario planning. The latter is a decision-making tool that, since the 1990s has enjoyed a resurgence in popularity.…”

Section: Deep Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent literature suggests that there has been a paradigm shift away from seeking decisions that are necessarily 'optimal', and instead to decisions that are 'robust' in the context of 'deep uncertainty' (Groves and Lempert 2007;Kalra et al 2014;Maier et al 2016). Per Hallegatte et al (2012, p.4) 'deep uncertainty' occurs Bdue to the presence of one or more of the following elements: (1) 'Knightian' uncertainty: multiple possible future worlds without relative known probabilities; (2) Multiple divergent but equally-valid world-views, including values used to define criteria of success; and (3) Decisions which adapt over time and cannot be considered independently^.…”

Section: Deep Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Opportunities for Economic Evaluation of Disaster Risk Decisions

Smith

Brown²,

McDonald

et al. 2017

EconDisCliCha

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Decision-makers today are required to assess disaster risk management options in increasingly complex and uncertain environments. Disaster risk management typically involves significant investment to mitigate low probability or highly uncertain events. We argue that under these circumstances existing economic evaluation toolkits do not adequately support decision-making. Our paper outlines the key economic evaluation tools used in decisionmaking and, in turn, advances a research agenda for future development and application of these approaches. Priority challenges to be addressed include resilience thinking, multi-capital assessment, valuing the future, accounting for distributional equity, social appetite for risk, and deep uncertainty. We also recommend a strong focus on capacity and capability building to improve the risk literacy of decision-makers.

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“…This includes studies on a 100% renewable energy system as a neo-carbon energy system [14,15]. BBestguess^future conditions might not be enough, and therefore multiple plausible futures should be considered [22]. Non-linearities, various sudden events and surprises -wild cards and black swans -could play a major role.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

et al. 2017

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We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) -or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities -broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue -above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.

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An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?

Cited by 345 publications

References 99 publications

Structuring Climate Adaptation through Multiple Perspectives: Framework and Case Study on Flood Risk Management

Structuring Climate Adaptation through Multiple Perspectives: Framework and Case Study on Flood Risk Management

Challenges and Opportunities for Economic Evaluation of Disaster Risk Decisions

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

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