An Optimization Model of Tuberculosis Epidemiology

Reveller, Charles; Lynn, Walter R.; Feldmann, Floyd M.

doi:10.1287/mnsc.16.4.b190

Cited by 45 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 6 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Parker (1983) uses a multiobjective approach and includes socioeconomic measurements such as infant mortality rates, calorie intake levels, and the degree of standard housing and potable water. Reveller et al (1969) focus on cost minimization while achieving a certain reduction in disease incidence. The authors propose a linear approximation of the transmission model for tuberculosis.…”

Section: Cost-effectivenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Literature review: The vaccine supply chain

Duijzer

Jaarsveld

Dekker

2018

European Journal of Operational Research

184

146

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Vaccination is one of the most effective ways to prevent and/or control the outbreak of infectious diseases. This medical intervention also brings about many logistical questions. In the past years, the Operations Research/Operations Management community has shown a growing interest in the logistical aspects of vaccination. However, publications on vaccine logistics often focus on one specific logistical aspect. A broader framework is needed so that open research questions can be identified more easily and contributions are not overlooked. In this literature review, we combine the priorities of the World Health Organization for creating a flexible and robust vaccine supply chain with an Operations Research/Operations Management supply chain perspective. We propose a classification for the literature on vaccine logistics to structure this relatively new field, and identify promising research directions. We classify the literature into the following four components: (1) product, (2) production, (3) allocation, and (4) distribution. Within the supply chain classification, we analyze the decision problems for existing outbreaks versus sudden outbreaks and developing countries versus developed countries. We identify unique characteristics of the vaccine supply chain: high uncertainty in both supply and demand; misalignment of objectives and decentralized decision making between supplier, public health organization and end customer; complex political decisions concerning allocation and the crucial importance of deciding and acting in time.

show abstract

Section: Cost-effectivenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Literature review: The vaccine supply chain

Duijzer

Jaarsveld

Dekker

2018

European Journal of Operational Research

184

146

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Thus, the question of how to get the most out of the available HIV funding is more essential now than ever before. It is now generally accepted that resource allocation decisions should be informed by, or grounded in, explicit criteria based on cost‐effectiveness to maximize health benefits with the resources available .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

IntroductionWith limited funds available, meeting global health targets requires countries to both mobilize and prioritize their health spending. Within this context, countries have recognized the importance of allocating funds for HIV as efficiently as possible to maximize impact. Over the past six years, the governments of 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America have used the Optima HIV tool to estimate the optimal allocation of HIV resources.MethodsEach study commenced with a request by the national government for technical assistance in conducting an HIV allocative efficiency study using Optima HIV. Each study team validated the required data, calibrated the Optima HIV epidemic model to produce HIV epidemic projections, agreed on cost functions for interventions, and used the model to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds to best address national strategic plan targets. From a review and analysis of these 23 country studies, we extract common themes around the optimal allocation of HIV funding in different epidemiological contexts.Results and discussionThe optimal distribution of HIV resources depends on the amount of funding available and the characteristics of each country's epidemic, response and targets. Universally, the modelling results indicated that scaling up treatment coverage is an efficient use of resources. There is scope for efficiency gains by targeting the HIV response towards the populations and geographical regions where HIV incidence is highest. Across a range of countries, the model results indicate that a more efficient allocation of HIV resources could reduce cumulative new HIV infections by an average of 18% over the years to 2020 and 25% over the years to 2030, along with an approximately 25% reduction in deaths for both timelines. However, in most countries this would still not be sufficient to meet the targets of the national strategic plan, with modelling results indicating that budget increases of up to 185% would be required.ConclusionsGreater epidemiological impact would be possible through better targeting of existing resources, but additional resources would still be required to meet targets. Allocative efficiency models have proven valuable in improving the HIV planning and budgeting process.

show abstract

“…Taylor (1968) focused on bovine virus diarrhea and Revelle et al (1969) focused on tuberculosis control measures. Sanders (1971) and Sethi (1974) applied optimal control to curable diseases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-effective control of chronic viral diseases: Finding the optimal level of screening and contact tracing

Armbruster

Brandeau

2010

Mathematical Biosciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Chronic viral diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) afflict millions of people worldwide. A key public health challenge in managing such diseases is identifying infected, asymptomatic individuals so that they can receive antiviral treatment. Such treatment can benefit both the treated individual (by improving quality and length of life) and the population as a whole (through reduced transmission). We develop a compartmental model of a chronic, treatable infectious disease and use it to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of different levels of screening and contact tracing. We show that: 1) the optimal strategy is to get infected individuals into treatment at the maximal rate until the incremental health benefits balance the incremental cost of controlling the disease; 2) as one reduces the disease prevalence by moving people into treatment (which decreases the chance that they will infect others), one should increase the level of contact tracing to compensate for the decreased effectiveness of screening; 3) as the disease becomes less prevalent, it is optimal to spend more per case identified; and 4) the relative mix of screening and contact tracing at any level of disease prevalence is such that the marginal efficiency of contact tracing (cost per infected person found) equals that of screening if possible (e.g., when capacity limitations are not binding). We also show how to determine the costeffective equilibrium level of disease prevalence (among untreated individuals), and we develop an approximation of the path of the optimal prevalence over time. Using this, one can obtain a close approximation of the optimal solution without having to solve an optimal control problem. We apply our methods to an example of hepatitis B virus.

show abstract

An Optimization Model of Tuberculosis Epidemiology

Cited by 45 publications

References 6 publications

Literature review: The vaccine supply chain

Literature review: The vaccine supply chain

How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries

Cost-effective control of chronic viral diseases: Finding the optimal level of screening and contact tracing

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About