An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment

Mohanty, U. C.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Pattanayak, Sujata; Sinha, P. C.

doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9810-z

Cited by 46 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The procedure involves performing a change‐point analysis iteratively and is based on the combination of CUSUM charts and bootstrapping to detect the changes in mean for a given time series of ACE (Taylor, ; Robbins et al , ). The description of CUSUM method is detailed in Appendix A1.…”

Section: Change‐point Detection (Abrupt Change)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)

Balaji

Chakraborty

Mandal

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Recent findings have raised the debate on increase in tropical cyclone activity (TCA) in major tropical ocean basins like North Atlantic and western North Pacific. To address the similar evidence in North Indian Ocean (NIO) basins, an attempt has been made in the present study to investigate TCA in NIO basins in the context of warmer climate during the satellite era (1981–2014). The most suitable cyclone energy metric called accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is estimated for this purpose. A statistical change‐point analysis is conducted to detect the shift in ACE during the study period. Environmental factors influencing TCA are investigated to infer possible causes in the observed variability. The results indicate the increasing trend in ACE in NIO during satellite era with statistical significance of 95%. The frequency and duration of intense cyclones (wind speed >64 knots) show notable increase in recent years. However, a decreasing trend is observed in total frequency. The change‐point analysis of ACE in NIO reveals objectively that the shift occurs in 1997, with 20.8 ACE during 1981–1996 and 41.4 ACE during 1997–2014. The analysis reveals that increase in number and duration of very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) (wind speed >64 knots) in the recent epoch (1997–2014) is the major cause for the observed twofold increase in ACE. Also, the mean genesis location of intense BoB cyclones exposes a longitudinal eastwards shift of 2.3° in the recent epoch, which could have aided the longevity of intense cyclones. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST), upper ocean heat content (UOHC) and genesis potential index (GPI) climatology shows a positive agreement to the observed shift in genesis. The analysis of seven environmental factors shows substantial agreement with the increase and variability of ACE. Predominantly, atmospheric water vapour and SST show better correlation (.72 and .66) with ACE in NIO.

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Section: Change‐point Detection (Abrupt Change)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)

Balaji

Chakraborty

Mandal

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…For this purpose, sea surface temperature (SST) from International comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) was analysed starting the year 1880. Based on SST anomaly (following Mohanty et al, 2012 andSingh et al, 2019a), the study found that climate started warming 1947 onwards over NIO and before that i.e., during 1880-1946, it was a comparatively cooler period (figure not shown). Thus, the present study considered the period of 70 years during 1947-2016 to find the rainfall contribution by CDs over India.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 93%

A study on variability in rainfall over India contributed by cyclonic disturbances in warming climate scenario

Singh

Panda

Kant

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Every year cyclonic disturbances (CDs) cause destructions along the coastal areas of the designated world basins. Apart from strong winds generated by CDs, torrential rain causes flood and landslides over the places of landfall. By using high-quality daily rainfall data, the contribution of rainfall by the North Indian Ocean (NIO) CDs over India is investigated in this study. Eastern Indian states suffer landfalling CDs from the Bay of Bengal and the western coastal states experience the influence from those formed over the Arabian Sea. Among eastern coastal states, the accumulated rainfall is higher over Andhra Pradesh (AP), Tamil Nadu (TN), Odisha and southern West Bengal during pre-monsoon season. Among western coastal states, Karnataka and Kerala suffer maximum rainfall from CDs. During post-monsoon season, coastal AP, TN, Odisha, Karnataka and coastal Kerala received higher accumulated rainfall. Gujarat received~70% and both AP and TN received up to 20-30% of rainfall by CDs during pre-monsoon months. During post-monsoon season, Gujarat, Odisha and AP received maximum rainfall contribution up to 50%. In most of the states, the overall rainfall contribution by CDs is observed to have a decreasing trend during both seasons. Owning to the stable average rainfall trend over India along with decreasing CD frequency during the postmonsoon season, the results indicate an increased amount of rainfall by CDs. CDs contribute a considerable amount of rainfall to central and northern India during the post-monsoon season, which is helpful for agricultural purpose. K E Y W O R D S cyclonic disturbances, North Indian Ocean, rainfall, warming climate

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“…Most of the districts of the Odisha State have shown the significant increasing rainfall trend in annual and monsoon rainfall for the period 1901-1945. The possible reason for the change in rainfall pattern from the year 1945 onwards is due to the beginning of current warming period (around 1950) from the past cooling period (1891-1950) (Mohanty et al 2012). The air temperature rises more in the current warming period and would reduce the rainfall for the period 1946-2013.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These two analyses indicated that the year 1945 is the most likely change point year in time series for the state. The possible reason for the change in rainfall pattern from the year 1945 onwards is due to the beginning of current warming period (around 1950) from the past cooling period (1891-1950) (Mohanty et al 2012).…”

Section: The Change Point Detection In the Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of regional-level long-term gridded rainfall variability over the Odisha State of India

et al. 2019

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Odisha State is located in eastern part of India which is blessed with sufficient amount of rainfall. Major part of the state is covered by Mahanadi river basin; Mahanadi river basin originated from Sihawa town and disposed out to Bay of Bengal near Sambalpur, Odisha State. The distribution pattern is erratic and uneven due to climate, topography, hydrology and geomorphology of the state. Catchment area of the Mahanadi is vast; therefore, drainage order is also high (about six); due to these features large amount of water has generated, and it will be appeared as flood at downstream through deltaic region to Bay of Bengal. In this connection, water resources planning and management are one of the crucial issues. For any hydrological study, it is necessary to identify the characteristics and climatic variability of the catchment. In the present study, long-term (1901-2013) rainfall time series has been utilized for rainfall variability analysis using nonparametric tests, viz. Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) and Theil-Sen's slope. The average annual rainfall of the Odisha State is to be found as about 1438 mm; out of them, about 78% occurs in the monsoon season. In the present study, it was found that the maximum and minimum rainfalls occurred at Bhadrak and Puri districts, respectively. As per change point detection, it was found to be as 1945 is shift change year. Further, it was noticed that most of the districts are showing positive trends before change point and vice versa. Similar results are estimated in the monsoon season because most of the rainfall has occurred in the monsoon season. Both positive and negative trends have been found in Odisha State; detailed study has been carried out for rainfall behavior identification of the state. The present study is useful for agricultural and water resources planning and mitigation.

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An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment

Cited by 46 publications

References 9 publications

Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)

Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)

A study on variability in rainfall over India contributed by cyclonic disturbances in warming climate scenario

Assessment of regional-level long-term gridded rainfall variability over the Odisha State of India

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