An investigation into shapes and determinants of deindustrialization processes: Theory and evidence for developed and developing countries (1970–2017)

An exploration of the interdependencies betweeenthe real exchange rate andthe size ofthe tradable sector ina small open economy

“…an appreciated real exchange rates. For instance, a) Warner (1995) and(2001) show, in a cross-section of countries during 1970-90, that a 10% increase in the ratio of natural resource exports to GDP was associated with reduced manufactured export growth, b) Rodrik (2008) finds positive effects of a devaluation on the relative size of the tradable goods sector, especially those related to industrial activities, c) Rajan and Subramanian (2011) add that the excess appreciation, the appreciation that is over and above that suggested by the Balassa-Samuelson effect, may represent the Dutch disease channel through which aid influences the manufacturing sector, d) Araujo et al (2021) note that in the least developed countries, a depreciation has a positive relationship with the value added of the manufacturing sector and that the effects of real exchange rates on growth operate, at least in part, through changes associated with the relative size of the tradable goods sector, and Balassa (1964), Samuelson (1964), Corden (1994), De Gregorio andWolf (1994), Connolly and Deveraux (1995), García (1999), Montiel (1999) and, Cerda (2001), Alberola (2003), Mahbub Morshed and Turnovsky (2004), Galstyan and Lane (2009), Rodrik (2008), Soto and Elbadawi (2008) TT Salter (1959), Edwards (1986), Fardmanesh (1990), Devarajan et al (1991), Devarajan (1999), Connolly and Deveraux (1995), García (1999), Montiel (1999) and (2011), Cerda (2001), Soto and Elbadawi (2008) Salter (1959), Krugman (1988), Edwards (1989), Devarajan et al (1991),…”

“…Theoretical real exchange rate models for developing economies consider it as an endogenous variable determined in a complete macroeconomic system where macroeconomic fundamentals are key driving variables underlying its movements. Rather than focusing on real exchange rates, Dutch disease models analyse the role of the fundamentals on the size of the tradable and non-tradable sectors and emphasize that appreciated real exchange rates induce resource allocation favorable to sectors other than the industrial sectors; they consider thus real exchange rate as a determinant of de-industrialization in developing economies; see Araujo et al (2021), Swan (1955), Salter (1959), Purvis (1982, 1983), Corden (1984), Sachs and Warner (1995), Fardmanesh (1990), Rodrik (2008), Rajan and Subramanian (2011), García-Cicco and Kawamura (2015), Mejalenko (2015) and Chang et al (2021) and Nülle and Davis (2018).…”

Variabel-variabel yang Memengaruhi Deindustrialisasi

“…Priyarsono, Lestari, dan Dewi (2010) dalam penelitiannya menemukan bahwa pendapatan per kapita, investasi, neraca perdagangan, dan keterbukaan ekonomi berpengaruh positif terhadap terjadinya deindustrialisasi di Indonesia. Selain itu, Araujo et al (2021) dalam penelitiannya menemukan bahwa investasi modal manusia (human capital) berpengaruh positif terhadap terjadinya deindustrialisasi baik di negara maju maupun di negara berkembang. Sejauh ini belum terdapat penelitian yang secara khusus meneliti fenomena deindustrialisasi kawasan industri di luar Pulau Jawa.…”

“…Artinya, peningkatan RLS sebesar satu tahun akan meningkatkan kontribusi sektor industri manufaktur sebesar 2,3229 persen. Hasil penelitian ini sejalan dengan hasil penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Araujo, E., et al (2021). Peningkatan kualitas pendidikan yang ditandai dengan peningkatan RLS sebagai proksi dari modal manusia akan meningkatkan pengetahuan dan keterampilan yang dimiliki oleh tenaga kerja.…”