An Inventory of Historic Storms and Cyclone Tracks That Have Caused Met-Ocean and Coastal Risks in the Eastern Baltic Sea

Suursaar, Ülo; Sepp, Mait; Post, Piia; Mäll, Martin

doi:10.2112/si85-107.1

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…This allowed us to robustly quantify the impact of cyclone clustering on extremely high sea levels. Previous research has only focused on those ETCs that caused the most extreme storm surges (Post & Kõuts, 2014; Suursaar et al., 2018); however, we consider all strong ETCs, regardless of how much flooding they caused.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have shown that extreme storm surges in the Baltic Sea depend mainly on three components: (a) the initial water volume in the Baltic Sea prior to the storm, (b) the characteristics of the storm, and (c) basin-wide standing waves in the water level caused by winds and atmospheric pressure variations (i.e., seiches) (Pellikka et al, 2018;Wiśniewski & Wolski, 2011;Wolski & Wiśniewski, 2020). Although previous studies have investigated the characteristics of ETCs causing extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea (Suursaar et al, 2009(Suursaar et al, , 2018Wolski & Wiśniewski, 2021), there is some evidence that a single ETC is not sufficient to cause extremely high sea levels, but that a series of ETCs is required (Post & Kõuts, 2014;Soomere & Pindsoo, 2016;Suursaar et al, 2018). However, a comprehensive analysis of the role of cyclone clustering for the extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea is lacking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Serial Cyclone Clustering on Extremely High Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea

Rantanen,

van den Broek,

Cornér

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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In the Baltic Sea, sea level variations are often very pronounced. During the winter season, storm surges caused by strong extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have major societal impacts on coastal cities. In this study, using reanalysis‐based cyclone tracks and in‐situ tide gauge records, we show that serial cyclone clustering (SCC) leads to higher sea levels in the Baltic Sea than situations where only one ETC passes the tide gauge. Consequently, almost half of extreme sea level events in the Baltic Sea are associated with cyclone clustering periods. For example, in Helsinki, 45% of the extreme sea level events coincided with SCC periods of three or more ETCs, while only 6% of the events coincided with a single ETC. Our study represents a significant advance in the understanding of the factors influencing sea level variations in the Baltic Sea.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Serial Cyclone Clustering on Extremely High Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea

Rantanen,

van den Broek,

Cornér

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…ETCs are also able to cause storm surges which can lead to very damaging impacts for coastal infrastructure. According to Suursaar et al (2018), the most serious meteorological and oceanographic as well as coastal impacts were connected to westerly approaching deep ETCs with tracks crossing Scandinavia and Southern Finland. For example, the passage of Storm Gudrun in January 2005 through the Gulf of Finland towards the east-north-east caused record maximum sea levels in Helsinki (+151 cm) and Hamina (+197 cm) (Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020).…”

Section: Extratropical Cyclones Based On Observed Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review on winds, extratropical cyclones and their impacts in Northern Europe and Finland

Gregow¹,

Rantanen²,

Laurila³

et al. 2020

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Strong winds caused by powerful extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous and damaging weather phenomena in Northern Europe. Stormy winds can generate extreme waves and rise the sea level, which leads occasionally to storm surges in coastal areas. In land areas, strong winds can cause extensive forest damage. In general, windstorms induce annually significant damage for society. Moreover, due to climate change, the frequency and the impacts caused by the windstorms is changing.In this report, we introduce a literature review on the occurrence of strong winds, extratropical cyclones and their impacts in Northern Europe. We present the most important findings on both past trends and current climate on wind speeds and extratropical cyclones based on in-situ measurements and reanalysis data. We also briefly analyse impacts caused by extreme convective weather. Furthermore, we aim to respond to the question on how the wind climate in Northern Europe is going to change in the future under climate change.The decadal changes in the frequency of extratropical cyclones in Northern Europe follows the changes in the storm track regions. Regarding the past climate, confident estimates of the past trends are difficult to make due to inhomogeneities in the number and type of assimilated wind speeds into reanalysis data. Based on homogenized in-situ observations, the wind climatology in 1959-2015 in Finland shows a slight downward trend, but no trend is evident in the number of potential forest damage days in Finland. Possible change points are however detected for wind speeds and the impacts. Forest damage is not only a function of wind speeds but also the environmental factors, such as the amount of frost in the ground, play a role.In the future, the strongest signal in Northern Europe for slightly increasing wind speeds is in the autumn while other seasons do not show remarkable trends. It has been shown that the total number of the strongest windstorms are projected to decrease in the North Atlantic and Europe, but regional differences are likely to appear due to changes in the storm tracks. The strong wind gusts associated with thunderstorms in parts of Northern Europe will likely increase in frequency by the end of the 21st century.

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Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective

et al. 2020

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An Inventory of Historic Storms and Cyclone Tracks That Have Caused Met-Ocean and Coastal Risks in the Eastern Baltic Sea

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

The Impact of Serial Cyclone Clustering on Extremely High Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea

The Impact of Serial Cyclone Clustering on Extremely High Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea

Review on winds, extratropical cyclones and their impacts in Northern Europe and Finland

Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective

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